US markets received a barrage of key economic data points last week that pointed to an improving US growth trajectory.
Brazil
Disappointing Pace in US Recovery
The markets are facing a repeat of “irrational exuberance.”
Long, Slow Global Economic Recovery
The US recovery looks destined to sneak up on the markets, particularly with the Treasury market.
Trend in Chinese Economy Impacting Physical Commodity Markets
The track of the US economy is important, but seeing a trend of better economic news from China is probably more important to physical commodity markets.
Global Economic Progress is Faltering
Global economic progress is apparently faltering, and noted fund managers are warning against having “too much equity market exposure.”
The US and Global Economies Showing Better Results
Into the end of April, the US economy was clawing its way toward self-propagating growth, but clearly recent growth has not been strong enough.
The Outlook for the Global Economy Not Impressive
Going into the end of April, the economic outlook for the Chinese economy is “unchanged”, the outlook for the US is only minimally improved, and the outlook for the Euro zone is better than most expectations.
Slow and Gradual Recovery In the World Economy
While the US economy is improving, the improvement probably isn’t definitive enough to satisfy US equities, which have recently carved out fresh new all-time highs.
US Growth Expectations Signaling a Long, Slow Recovery
Over the last two months, the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index has racked up some fairly impressive gains, suggesting that commodities have been sensing improvement in the global economic outlook.
Overall Uncertainty Continues to Decline
The overall outlook for commodities is slightly improved from last week’s dismal view. Clearly the US economy has remained suspect in the wake of the second disappointing Non-Farm Payroll result in a row.