What we don’t know is the pace of the global recovery, but what we might know is that there is some measure of forward progress in the US, Europe and China.
Brazil
Gains in Commodities Historically Hint at Inflation
Seeing silver, sugar and soybeans forge strong price gains has historically hinted at inflation, but that type of forecast seems foolhardy in the current environment.
Increased Odds of Growth in the US and Abroad
Just when it appeared that the commodity markets were overbought and poised to correct, the US Fed was found to be on-hold “to at least June.”
Prospects of a June Fed Rate Hike?
We think that commodity markets were short-term and perhaps even intermediately overbought going into their recent highs.
Large Grain Supply May Not Be Enough!
Several years ago, the amount of food consumed inside the home was surpassed by what was consumed outside of the home.
Is the Long, Dark Shadow of Deflation Starting to Fade?
Perhaps the moderation is the result of many markets having already priced-in anemic growth, oversupply and little threat to supply.
Current Sentiment in Favor of the Bear Camp
We continue to think that the current crisis lacks a pedigree, and industry leader Jamie Dimon (CEO of JP Morgan) would seem to concur, given that in the wake of stock declines he purchased shares of his company.
Signs of Slowing Inside and Outside the US
It seemed like the initial threat to western markets was from China, but that threat has expanded with a lengthening pattern of slack US data.
Fundamental Track in Favor of the Bear Camp
Just when it appeared that sentiment had reached a trough, the crude oil market dragged commodities down even further.
The Deflationary Selling Binge in Commodities Has Continued with a Vengeance
The deflationary selling binge in commodities has continued with a vengeance, with sagging crude oil prices leading the way.