We were a little surprised with the trading action over the last week.
What we don’t know is the pace of the global recovery, but what we might know is that there is some measure of forward progress in the US, Europe and China.
Conab (Brazil bean counters) came out this morning and dropped bit of a bomb shell on the market.
Half way through the week, half way to the WASDE report. Who here is excited for a volatile 2 hour Friday trade followed by a weekend waiting for a gap open on Sunday night? I for one can’t wait.
Seeing silver, sugar and soybeans forge strong price gains has historically hinted at inflation, but that type of forecast seems foolhardy in the current environment.
Just when it appeared that the commodity markets were overbought and poised to correct, the US Fed was found to be on-hold “to at least June.”
We think that commodity markets were short-term and perhaps even intermediately overbought going into their recent highs.
Several years ago, the amount of food consumed inside the home was surpassed by what was consumed outside of the home.
Perhaps the moderation is the result of many markets having already priced-in anemic growth, oversupply and little threat to supply.
We continue to think that the current crisis lacks a pedigree, and industry leader Jamie Dimon (CEO of JP Morgan) would seem to concur, given that in the wake of stock declines he purchased shares of his company.