We think that a September US rate hike is off the table because of a lack of definitive forward progression in the US jobs sector. The unending Greek saga combined with a rising Dollar has created enough headwinds to keep the Fed on the sidelines until later in the year.
The Global Economic Train Appears Poised to Pull Others Forward!
From our perspective, the Greek situation has not only become irksome, it has also served hold back the global recovery effort unnecessarily and has been keeping the US dollar at a higher valuation than necessary.
Commodity Sentiment Anticipating Normal Inflation Ahead
Things are changing on the macroeconomic front, as instead of patently deflationary fears, sentiment is starting to anticipate normal inflation ahead.
Change Is In the Air!
While the world continues to be disappointed with the rate of recovery in the US, Europe and parts of Asia, the skies are clearing, and signs of improving US Payrolls, strong global auto sales figures and rising energy prices suggest that the economy is moving back towards normal.
Persistent Improvement in Global Economic Sentiment
As we indicated last week, outside market forces appear to be reaching a zenith, and with the noted letdown in the dollar in June, the hope of sidestepping a financial debacle in Europe, and the promise of ongoing aggressive QE from the ECB, it would not be surprising to see a persistent improvement in global economic sentiment.
Outside Market Forces Weigh Heavily on Commodity Prices
In all markets, there are inside market forces and outside market forces. What outside forces are affecting physical commodity prices?
A Recovery Unfolding at a Slower Than Expected Pace
The recovery of the US economy continues but at a pace that is disappointing for a variety of markets.
The US Economic Pendulum Has Shifted Again
The US economic pendulum has shifted again, with data flows generally remaining disappointing and little of any improvement in activity in the face of better weather.
Macroeconomic Conditions Improving; Return to Growth
Macroeconomic conditions are improving, and the Fed Chairman feels confident enough to weigh in with her own “irrational exuberance” moment with respect to equity valuations.
Will the Global Economy Regain Momentum?
We had what appears to have been a watershed moment in financial markets over the last week.