I was on Market Rally with Chip Flory on Monday. If you missed it you can hear the replay of the show here: Craig Turner on Market Rally with Chip Flory
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Soybeans, corn and wheat are higher across the board as money continues to flow into grain and oilseed markets. Corn continues to charge higher and I still like being bull spread July/Dec corn. As fund money comes into the commodity markets as a hedge against inflation, I think corn, soybeans, and wheat will continue to benefit. Corn and wheat are relatively low priced when compared to prices in the past ten years. Soybeans already have a big net long spec position but we could still see even more fund money come into the soybean market.
I think strength in July vs Dec Corn is also telling the market this rally has legs. Between the money flow, exports, expectations of lower corn acres, and the inflation trade, corn seems to want to trade higher.
July vs Dec corn
The HRW areas of US sound like they are having more issues than the SRW regions so I continue to like July KC vs July Chicago wheat. The trend continues to be bullish and I think we will be in the 20 to 30 cent range by First Notice Day.
July KC vs July Chicago
We recently took bearish positions in Oct/Aug cattle and June/April Hogs and I think both of those markets are going to work lower over the next month or two. I like the hogs bear spread because it looks like it is trying to reverse and the seasonals are bearish this time of year. I like the bear spread in cattle because the recent auctions have been weak, the charts are bearish, and the latest Cattle on Feed had a very bearish placements number.
April vs June Hogs
Aug vs Oct Live Cattle
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