The USDA released their February WASDE report this morning (February 10). The February report is not normally a big market mover and the report followed suit as there were a few surprises, but not enough to get the corn, soybeans or wheat markets above resistance levels or below support levels…yet.
This Week In Grain
It appears the cash corn trade has come to a standstill over recent weeks as weather and lack of a selling catalyst has spreads and basis tightening. I want to point out the performance of the March contract against the other contracts in the 2014 crop year over recent months.
This “post WASDE” week was a bit disappointing for those who love big price swings. Soybeans saw some the follow-through price action to the upside but ran into trend resistance near 1330. Late this week it backed off toward 13 but held support. Wheat and corn traded in their post WASDE ranges all week, but got weaker as we went on.
The grain data came fast and furious all day! It started with Brazil forecasting their production this morning, followed by the USDA giving us their take on everything but old crop supplies (those will come in the JAN report). While the results of today’s report may have not inspired much volatility at 11 am, I did notice a few things that may become trends over what is left of 2013 and the start of 2014.
I feel excited to say for the first time in 9 weeks, WELCOME TO WASDE WEEK! The last time we heard from the USDA regarding WASDE data, it was September 12th. Since that day, we have seen prices move dramatically in grains and oilseed markets.
As a reader of TWIG, I hope you have come to understand my major objective to inspire ideas so you can hedge or trade these grains markets on your terms. Lately, I have been asked by producers why it would make sense to re-own. Today, I am going to step out of my bear costume and put on my bulls jersey. Maybe I can inspire an idea or two to get you involved.
This is a sample entry from John Payne’s newsletter, This Week in Grain, published on Wednesday, October 09, 2013. With the USDA being closed, the market is craving all of the data it can get. Today (10/09) we got a snapshot of the Brazilian Ag situation, thanks to our friends at CONAB (think of them… Read more.
As the calendar turns into fall, the corn and soybean markets will brace for new production to come online. You will begin to hear many analysts talk about “harvest pressure” as the combines begin to roll across the heartland. Being a grain nerd and someone who reads a lot of different opinions, I was interested… Read more.
Short crops have long tails, that’s what the old salts tell me. Because of the tremendously short soybean crop from last year, I think the tail has one more wag before the 2012 crop is history. The money flow in Soybeans has been very negative since the “rumor” that China will be using beans from… Read more.
There is not enough soymeal in the United States to meet demand. To help meet demand, crushers were planning on turning beans into meal using cheaper South American imports, as there is a lot of product available and the crush margins would be well in the green to support their efforts. But, because of the Brazilian port situation, the beans are not coming as quickly as the crushers wanted. The cheap product they could turn into expensive meal is apparently not in the cards.