In the podcast I go over what the supply bulls and demand bears are fighting about. On the supply side the US could be at a 12.25 billion production level for corn and 3.5 billion for soybeans. If corn production is 12.25 billion (78mm acres harvests X 160 yield) then demand needs to be rationed 400 to 500mm to make sure ending stocks are around 1 billion. The supply bulls argue corn needs to go higher for price rationing.
See the seasonal explanation and technical analysis for the trade opportunity in the October 2019 / March 2020 Natural Gas Spread from The Seasonal Spread Trader newsletter.
Late this morning I sent out a trade recommendation to buy the EMini SP futures. Today was the Buy Day in the Taylor Trading Technique (TTT) cycle and a morning selloff gave us an opportunity to trade this setup. For the EMini SP, the Wednesday low of 2980.50 was the reference price. It spent much… Read more.
In this morning’s comments for Swing Trader’s Insight I pointed out that the T Bond futures had a breakout setup. It broke out to the upside and made a steady rally over the session, giving a good slow motion (for a breakout move) trade. The pattern for today’s breakout signal wasn’t a traditional range contraction… Read more.
In this morning’s update of Swing Trader’s Insight, I highlighted several markets with breakout setups for today. The breakout setups were largely a result of consolidation and limited market participation ahead of the scheduled speech by Fed Chair Powell at Noon CT. The timing of the speech gave two distinct periods to take breakout trade… Read more.
The CBOT remains range bound as traders debate supply (acres and yield) and demand (exports and feed). The market will have little guidance from the USDA until the August 12th WASDE report. Weather forecasts have temps getting cooler with more precipitations. The US will have a smaller corn and soybean crop this year, but the trade is still debating how small and how much price rationing is needed. In this episode we also dive into what this all means for the 2020-21 corn and soybean crops too. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!
The crude oil futures had a breakout setup for today after two narrow range, directionless sessions. This breakout setup told us to look for a directional move today, which resulted in a down trending market from mid morning on. When a market has a breakout setup, we look for an initial move beyond nearby support… Read more.
The report was bullish for HRW wheat (KC). Russian wheat production was cut, US HRW exports were increased, and feed use was increased. Year-over-year HRW stocks are projected to be 15% lower. KC wheat finished 20 higher today and lead all markets.
The USDA will release their July WASDE on Thursday, July 11th, at 11 am central. We think the report could be bearish for corn and wheat, but has the potential for a bullish surprise in soybeans. Take a listen to Turner’s Take Podcast to hear more
Happy Independence Day! It is a holiday week and it feels that way. Wednesday is an early close, Thursday we are closed for Independence Day, and Friday is a full day but the markets should be very quiet. Friday will be like the day after Thanksgiving. In this podcast we go over the bullish and bearish forces in the macro economy, why we think corn will trade in a range of $4.00 to $4.50 for the rest of the summer, why we are concerned about soybeans and wheat, and why we like cotton and cattle. Make sure you take a listen to Turner’s Take Podcast!