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Another week and more planting delays. The funds are still heavily short corn and soybeans. We are well behind the pace for planting, and now we have concerns for acres and yield in both corn and beans. Grain continue to have the potential to rally even as China prepares for a “New Long March” and a possible trade cold war with the US. Make sure you take a listen to Turner’s Take Podcast
Beyond the Spotlight for the week of May 20, 2019 covers the Japanese Yen, Gold, Unleaded Gasoline markets. Watch now to look ahead with us, while potentially creating additional trading opportunities for yourself.
Last year I wrote a report in which I said a characteristic of the markets during the Trump presidency would be more breakout trade opportunities (You can get a copy of that report HERE). I added a section to the Swing Trader’s Insight (STI) advisory to highlight these setups. Silver futures were one of the… Read more.
We have have a good old-fashioned weather market on our hands. Analysts are now reducing acres and yield for corn and their is a possibility we lose 1 billion bushels in production. Soybean yields are starting to be adjusted lower too. We still have a moderately bullish view of the stock market and hogs. We think cattle is due for a bounce higher but the longer term outlook still looks bearish. Make sure you take a listen to this weeks Turner’s Take Podcast!
In last night’s edition of Swing Trader’s Insight I labeled the soybeans as a Taylor Trading Technique (TTT) Sell Short day for today. Tuesday’s rally followed through in the overnight session, which gave us an opportunity to get short from a better level. Tuesday saw a strong rally as the market popped out of breakout… Read more.
Beyond the Spotlight for the week of May 13, 2019 covers the Swiss Franc, Thirty-Year Bonds, and Coffee markets. Watch now to look ahead with us, while potentially creating additional trading opportunities for yourself.
The next couple of weeks makes or break corn. Soybeans could add acres but at current prices with no China deal it is hard to make that case. I think worst case scenarios are CN goes to $3.20, CZ $3.40, SN $7.50, SX, $7.80 WN, $4.00 and KWN $3.60. Maybe $7 soybeans discourages South American planting? Corn has a real chance to rally this spring/summer but it is all about US acres and yield. It will not be a demand story. Farmers need to sell the deferred contracts on rallies and use the new price ranges to sell straddles. The rest of this year is going to be all about Maximizing Opportunity in a Low Priced Environment. I’ll be holding a webinar on that topic soon and updating you about it next week
I’m taking today’s price action with a grain of salt as the Volatility Index was spiking to contract highs and traders are hedging and cross-hedging for every possible US/China trade outcome by the end of the week.
Today was another session that the stock index futures had breakout setups. Using the overnight structure as I wrote about yesterday (read HERE), we were able to trade this morning’s breakdown although the market was well past the standard trigger levels for a breakout trade entry. In 2017 I wrote a report (get a copy… Read more.
In this podcast we go over why I am now very pessimistic about a US-China deal and why the May WASDE report may be more bearish than expected. The US-China deal is could drag out for a very long time if this is all about IP and Technology Transfer, which I think it is. China needs to change laws and their political/economic system to meet the demands from the Trump Administration. At this point I can see both sides walking away, tariffs raised, and the US government offer support payments for soybeans again and maybe a more significant assistance with corn (not just 1 cent).I also see the WASDE as bearish on Wednesday. Below are my estimates for New Crop. The columns highlighted in yellow is what I think the USDA will publish on Friday. The other columns are different scenarios based on how acres and yield may change for corn and soybeans