While the hype and equity market euphoria from the election has started to moderate, a shift in economic sentiment from inside and outside the US was already in motion, and that could allow for a “risk on” vibe until the markets get closer to the mid-December FOMC meeting.
dt Newsletter
Time to Consider Economic Impact of the Election
The shocking election results on Tuesday caused a harsh, knee-jerk reaction in many financial and commodity markets.
International Headwinds Easing, December Rate Hike Entrenched
The march toward a December rate hike continues, with payroll data and wages for October just good enough to increase the prospect of action from the Fed.
Signs of Improving Global Economy? Or Anticipating US Rate Hike?
We are not sure if the signals being thrown by Treasuries this week are a sign of a longer term change or if we are “putting the cart before the horse.”
Dollar Moves Higher; Oversupply For Soybeans
A strengthening US dollar and uncertainties in global stock markets have helped to drive some commodity markets lower over the past few weeks, and the possible appearance of a double top in crude oil has many macro-fund traders getting concerned about the outlook ahead.
The Markets Force the Fed to Act
We were a little surprised with the trading action over the last week.
Prices Heading Back Toward Summer Lows?
Looking at a weekly or daily chart of the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI), commodity prices seem expensive.
The Fed Looks to Remain On Hold Through December
While the markets might not believe that the oil producers’ deal to reduce output will be fulfilled, it does appear that US crude oil inventories are tightening and global demand is creeping higher.
The World Economy is Poised to Move Forward
The answer to the US hike/no hike question was not only “no-hike,” it was also combined with a much less hawkish forward view and suggestions that the US economy had more room to run.
Deflation Threats Linger; Fear of a Rate Hike
To hike, or not to hike, that is the question!