The number of global geopolitical/economic flashpoints has expanded dramatically, and the potential for a major risk-off event is growing. Given that US/China trade tensions are escalating and given China’s outsized impact on physical commodities, the threat against…
dt Newsletter
Is China Losing Ground in Trade Battle? Pressure Is on US Despite Positivity in US Economy
The US economy has remained on a positive jobs track and Chinese stocks have remained under pressure, and that could be suggesting that China is losing ground in the trade battle. However, dialogue in the US…
Signs of Optimism in Global Economic Condition Face Headwinds of Supply and Demand
On balance, global economic conditions improved over the last week, with a slight tempering of trade tensions, strong US growth readings, and ideas that a number of central banks are seeing conditions that will allow them to plan stimulus exits…
Trade War Threat to Leave Commodities Under Pressure
A number of industrial commodities have remained under liquidation pressure because of the worsening of US/Chinese trade relations. The takeaway from recent dialogue suggests that the US is preparing for a long-term tariff strategy with China.
Market Sentiment Keeping Prospect of Commodity Selling High
Judging by the reactions in the markets, sentiment on global equities has not been injured by the trade salvos, but sentiment on a number of demand-driven commodities has. With China posting yet another record trade surplus with the US for the month of June and…
Crude Oil, Soybeans, & More Commodity Markets Vulnerable in Weeks Ahead
Given the lack of a significant negative reaction in global equity markets to the latest salvos in the US/Chinese trade battle and “goldilocks” US non-farm payroll news, it is possible that the ultimate impact of the trade problems…
Is Macroeconomic Volatility to Reach Crescendo? Renewed Pressure on Commodities Still Possible
We would suggest that risk on/risk off big picture macroeconomic volatility in commodities is set to reach a crescendo despite the holiday-shortened trading week in the US. Our view is that the looming July 6th tariff implementation deadline will…
Bearish Commodity Headline Flow Approaching its Peak? High-Volatility Bottoms Possible in Coming Weeks
As of this writing, the bearish physical commodity headline flow has the feel of an approaching peak. Very good growing conditions in the US, concerns over an internet tax, the recent US rate hike, an 11-month high in the dollar, sentiment injury, tension over immigration, an explosion in global tariff threats, and a slight loosening of world oil production restraint leave physical commodities…
Pressure on Physical Commodities Possible in the Week Ahead
All things considered, financial markets weathered the latest US interest rate hike well, even with predictions for rate hikes all the way out into 2020. While the mostly hawkish Fed dialogue didn’t lend much support to the dollar, surprisingly dovish rate guidance from…
Favorable Demand Conditions to Offset Vulnerabilities in Commodity Markets
Many commodity markets appear to be vulnerable to corrective action, despite the fact that the dollar is showing signs of weakening and providing support from an export perspective. Favorable weather, a historically strong start…