John Payne is a Senior Futures & Options Broker and Market Strategist with Daniels Trading. He is the publisher of the grain focused newsletter called This Week in Grain. He has been working as a series 3 registered broker since 2008.
John graduated from the University of Iowa with a degree in economics. After school, John embarked on a 4 year career with the United States Navy. It was during two tours in Iraq and the Persian Gulf where John realized how important commodities are to the survival of society as we know it. It was this understanding that brought about John’s curiosity in commodities. Upon his honorable discharge in 2007, John’s intense interest in the world of commodities inspired him to move to Chicago and pursue his passion in a career in the futures arena.
After a three year position with a managed futures firm specialized in livestock trading, he was given the opportunity to join the team at Daniels Trading. Being in the business and seeing how other IB’s operated, it was the integrity and straightforward approach of the Daniels management team and brokers that attracted him to make the move. Since joining Daniels, John has broadened his fundamental and technical analysis of the markets even further. John has been writing his newsletter This Week in Grain under the Daniels banner since 2011.
Working in high pressure industries like the military and capital markets, John has learned the value of preparation in times of stress. He believes that instilling within his clients the value of a good plan and a cool head for dealing with the day to day swings of commodity markets. He treats every client as a teammate, understanding that his job is to help clients achieve their goals, whatever they may be.
John is a proud supporter of the Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America, the Veterans of Foreign Wars and the National Corn Growers Association. When he is not working, he enjoys athletics of all kinds and spending time with his wife and their kids.
John’s commentary is featured in the following publications:
- All Ag Radio – Sirius Channel 80
- AM 880 KRVN – Lexington, Nebraska
- RFD TV
- Wall Street Journal
- Barron’s
- China News Daily (English version)
Videos Featuring John
Welcome to This Week in Grain (4/23/2014) - This Week in Grain (T.W.I.G.) is a weekly grain and oilseed commentary newsletter designed to keep grain market participants on the cutting edge, so they can hedge or speculate with more confidence and precision. T.W.I.G is designed for those needing a weekly road map for the grain markets in order to stay better informed and educated. 
TWIG Weekly Wrap for 2015-07-17 (7/17/2015) - This is your weekly grain wrap for the week of July 13 through July 17th. The grain markets have been two sided this week in corn and beans, while wheat has taken a bit of a price set back.
TWIG Weekly Wrap 2015-09-18 John Payne (9/18/2015) - This is your weekly grain wrap for the week of of September 14th through the 18th. Grain markets experience solid post-WASDE gains until macro concerns and pushed prices back down by the end of the week. 
TWIG Weekly Wrap 2015-07-31 (7/31/2015) - This is your weekly grain wrap for the week of July 27th through July 31st. It's been a wild time in the grain markets of late, with very one sided price action dominating the tape.
TWIG WASDE Recap for 2016-06-10 (6/10/2016) - Friday's WASDE showed a bullish supply situation but was on expectations.John Payne in the Media
John Payne Comments on the Copper Market with The Wall Street Journal (5/3/2015) - Daniels Trading Senior Market Analyst John Payne was quoted in the May 03 2015 WSJ article titled “Copper’s Win Streak Hits Seven Days.”
John Payne Comments on the Gold Market with the Wall Street Journal (3/4/2016) - Daniels Trading Senior Market Analyst John Payne was quoted in the March 4, 2016 Wall Street Journal article titled “Gold Settles At 13-Month High” by Ira Iosebashvili and Mike Cherney.
John Payne Discusses Corn Supplies with China Daily USA (12/20/2013) - Daniels Trading Senior Broker John Payne was quoted in the December 20th, 2013 China Daily USA article titled “Corn rejections 'little cause for concern': analyst.” This story reports China's demand for corn.
John Payne Discusses Cotton Prices with The Wall Street Journal/WSJ.COM (11/4/2013) - Daniels Trading Senior Broker John Payne was quoted in The Wall Street Journal/WSJ.com article titled “Cotton Prices Fall on China Concerns.” The article reports on the prices of cotton falling due to China preparing to release cotton from its stockpile. The reserve’s managers are buying cotton at a slower pace and getting pickier about what… Read more.
John Payne Discusses Cotton Projections for the Coming Year with Barron’s (12/8/2012) - Daniels Trading Senior Broker John Payne was quoted in the Barron’s article titled “A Soft Landing for Cotton.” The article reviews the poor performance of the Cotton futures market in 2012 and the potentially more promising prospects for the coming year. While the swollen inventories are “priced in” for cotton futures, Payne says, “what is… Read more.
John Payne Discusses Ethanol Production with The Wall Street Journal (12/17/2014) - Daniels Trading Senior Broker and Daniels Ag Services Senior Market Analyst John Payne was quoted in the December 17 2014 WSJ article titled "China Approves Syngenta Biotech Corn - Approval for Biotech Corn Comes During Meeting of Chinese, U.S. Officials."
John Payne Discusses Lean Hog Prices with China Daily USA (2/4/2014) - Daniels Trading Senior Broker and Daniels Ag Services Senior Market Analyst John Payne was quoted in the February 04, 2014 China Daily USA article titled “Virus hits US pork exports” This story reports the PEDV and its toll on the US prom industry.
John Payne Quoted in Dow Jones Story Regarding Soybean Yields (2/23/2016) - Daniels Trading Senior Market Analyst John Payne was quoted in the February 23, 2016 Dow Jones article titled “U.S. Grains, Soybeans Slide on Demand Woes -- Update.”
John Payne’s Article, “The Game Plan for Investing in Today’s Corn Market”, Featured on the INO.com Guest Blog (5/11/2012) - The corn trade has been incredibly complicated as of late. The situation is one that projects both the most bullish and bearish of set ups, simultaneously. So what is anyone involved in the grain trade supposed to do? What do we focus on going forward that will project prices higher or lower? If market participants… Read more.
John Payne’s Article, “This Week In Grain”, Featured on the INO.com Guest Blog (6/13/2012) - US Crop weather, the June WASDE report and an ever changing picture in Europe will dominate the headlines this week in the grain and oilseed markets. The trading for the week will start out on a positive note, as European politicians were presented with a request from the Spanish Government for a bailout of approximately… Read more.
Blog Posts by John
The Swine Times 11/18-11/22 (11/18/2019) - Quiet night at the CBOT for feed grains, soybeans give back yesterday's gains. Cotton cant buy a rally amidst falling conditions.
The Swine Times: Drowning in Data and Trade Talks – June 24-28 (6/23/2019) - Hello hog traders, To say hog futures took it on the chin last week would be an understatement. The market got a double dose of continuing cutout collapse and spec fund liquidation. Funds are leading the liquidation charge as front month futures get pounded, but it is joined by commercial selling as well. At on… Read more.
US Grain and Oilseed Markets Explode Higher Following G-20 Meetings (12/3/2018) - US grain and oilseed markets exploded higher last night on the open following the G-20 meetings over the weekend leaving price gaps everywhere you look. The meeting appears to have been a success as the message has been spun as positive by both sides.
US Row Crop Markets Facing Weekly Losses, USD Trades Unchanged (11/16/2018) - Row crop markets are mixed in the overnight, as the USD trades unchanged amidst an evening of low volume. All 4 markets I cover for you come into this morning facing weekly losses although no real technical damage has been done in any market with the exception of KC Wheat.
US Row Crop Markets Higher, Soybeans Leading the Way on News of Talks with China (11/15/2018) - US row crop markets are higher across the board this morning as high level talks take place between the US and China per China’s commerce department. Soybeans are leading the way higher on this news as January beans make a run at 900.
US Row Crop Markets Mixed, Crude Oil Makes 9 Month Low (11/13/2018) - US row crop markets are mixed this morning, while crude oil makes a new 9 month low. December corn and January soybeans remain in their tight ranges at 370 and 888, while cotton markets bleed lower as FND approaches for December futures at 76.66, up slightly.
Friday Morning in Grain and Oilseeds 10/19- REAL IS THE DRIVER (10/19/2018) - Good morning friends Happy Friday from a cool, crisp Chicago Ill. CBOT markets are mixed this morning as corn and beans trade slightly higher, while wheat is lower. Cotton markets are down 20 ticks this morning to the mid 77.85 level, capping a very boring week for the markets while producers deal with the wrath… Read more.
This Week in Grain and Oilseeds 9/17-9/21 FOMC WEEK (9/17/2018) - Good morning friends Row crop markets are mixed this morning, trading just above Fridays close in wheat while the rest of the complex is in the red. Currency markets should hold some sway this week, as the FOMC meets on Wednesday to most likely raise rates for the 3rd time this year. This comes as… Read more.
This Week In Grain and Oilseeds 9/10- Hurricane Florence Bears Down on Cotton (9/10/2018) - Good morning friends Cotton markets are jumping in Sunday/Monday overnight trading as Hurricane Florence bears down on the SE coast/Mid-Atlantic US while the rest of the CBOT complex trades sideways. December cotton trades 83+ cents this morning, breaking above Fridays high. December corn trades right in the middle of its recent comfort zone between 365… Read more.
Friday Morning in Grain and Oilseeds 9/7- Wheat continues its collapse (9/7/2018) - Hello friends There will be nervousness today as we are approaching the end of the comment period for the Chinese tariffs. I expect we will hear on whether or not the US will move forward with 200 billion in additional tariffs over the coming, week, maybe even this weekend. It is very difficult to… Read more.
Thursday Morning in Grain and Oilseeds 9/6- Egypt/Russia wheat tender shows price weakness, funds cover (9/6/2018) - Good morning friends, There is little bullish impetus from the outside markets helping row crop prices right now. Weather should be somewhat friendly to price, although fall rain never seems to push funds into or out of new positions. The USD continues its push higher against minor market pairs, while competition against the major pairs… Read more.
Tuesday Morning in Grain and Oilseeds 9/5 – Brazilian Real Touches Historic Lows (9/5/2018) - Good morning friends The story this morning continues to be the collapse in emerging market currencies. Row crop traders are watching the Brazilian Real closely as trades just above the 2015 low when the Real traded near 4.28 to 1. We are already at an all-time closing low against the greenback, further weakness in the… Read more.
Tuesday Morning in Grain and Oilseeds 6/19- Cotton joins the meldown (6/19/2018) - Good morning friends The carnage continues at the CBOT after President Trump announced plans are in the works for a tariff plan to hit back at China with tariffs on a list of another 200 billion dollars of import tariffs. Every market on my screen with the exception of the dollar and copper (oddly) are… Read more.
The Swine Times 5/28-6/1 (5/28/2018) - See recommendations and market analysis for the Pork futures markets in the Swine Times for the week of May 28th through June 1st, 2018.
The Swine Times 5/14-5/18 (5/13/2018) - See recommendations and market analysis for the Pork and Lean Hogs futures markets in the Swine Times for the week of May 14th through 18th, 2018.
This Week in Grain and Oilseeds 4/9-4/13 (4/9/2018) - Good morning friends US row crop markets are higher across the board as I walk to work with 2 inches of snow on the ground here in Chicago, two weeks into the month of April. Corn and soybean prices have erased all of the selling that had taken place starting at 3 am on Wednesday… Read more.
The Swine Times 3/26-3/29 (3/26/2018) - CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP FOR A FREE TRIAL OF THE SWINE TIMES Happy Monday Hog traders We come into the week on the back of a very negative few weeks in the lean hog complex. Between falling cash prices and the tariffs announced last week, we feel much of the negativity is priced in. … Read more.
The Swine Times 3/23- China Strikes Back at US Hog Producers (3/23/2018) - CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP FOR A FREE TRIAL OF THE SWINE TIMES Happy Friday hog traders President Trump’s tariff announcement yesterday was met by retaliation from the Chinese by way of 25% tax on US hog imports, among other goods. The total tariff amount was rather small, only 3 billion dollars worth of US… Read more.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN GRAIN AND OILSEEDS 3/8- WASDE WRAP (3/8/2018) - Good afternoon friends! We had a bevy of reports today, starting with CONAB this morning which was neutral for soybeans (113 MMT beans/87.5 MMT corn) and bullish for corn. We then had USDA exports that were fantastic with a capital ‘F’ for corn, beans and cotton. Followed by maybe one of the most bullish USDA… Read more.
The Swine Times 2/23- Weekly Hog Market Wrap-up (2/23/2018) - CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP FOR A FREE TRIAL OF THE SWINE TIMES Happy Friday hog traders Thanks for following along for another week! Hog markets are showing some promise after a rough start to the week. April hogs, being the long anchor of our trading lately has been tied to a weak cash market. … Read more.
2/7 IN GRAIN AND OILSEEDS- Wheat awakes and Argentina Weather (2/7/2018) - Hello friends Corn and wheat markets continue to climb the ladder today while soybeans have corrected a bit following a good evening of overnight price action. March corn is trading at a six month front month high of 365, November soybeans traded almost to 1010 last night but have pulled back slightly on supply news… Read more.
This January in Grain and Oilseeds – End of Month Chart Wrap (1/31/2018) - January of 2018 is a wrap! I figured a snapshot of more than a few commodity markets from 10,000 feet may be useful. As you can see in the case of the row crops, we have started to move but we have a long way we could go. It’s easy to be bearish in the… Read more.
This Week in Grain and Oilseeds – January 29-February 2, 2018 (1/29/2018) - Happy Monday friends, “Covering” is the theme this morning as shorts scramble out of the CBOT markets and longs out of the cotton markets. The action over the last four days is almost a perfect inverse between the corn/wheat and cotton markets. Overnight, corn a penny higher and has extended even more as I write… Read more.
The Swine Times – January 22-26, 2018 – Hog Trading Wrap Up (1/22/2018) - CURRENT POSITIONS: LONG 1 UNIT OF APRIL HOGS SHORT 1 UNIT OF AUGUST HOGS @ -8.75 Hog Market Prices – January 15-19 Looking into next week: As you can tell by the primal cut quotes above, there has been very little activity on the pork product market. Swine Times mentioned last week that the price… Read more.
The Swine Times – January 8-12, 2018 – Hog Trading Wrap Up (1/12/2018) - CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP FOR A FREE TRIAL OF THE SWINE TIMES Good afternoon hog traders, We wanted to shoot everyone a comment after the WASDE report today in regards to hogs. We had a good week of trading if you joined us in the markets. The roll forward from April-June to Feb-Apr was… Read more.
Thursday Morning in Grain and Oilseeds – January 11, 2018 – Cotton, CONAB, and WASDE (1/11/2018) - Good morning friends, A big 24 hours of data is ahead of us, we have quite a bit to digest this morning as CONAB kicked things off early. Cotton markets are moving this morning as March cotton is up 1.17 cents, pushing at one point above 81 cents. This market is showing no signs of… Read more.
The Swine Times 12/26-12/29 (12/26/2017) - CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP FOR A FREE TRIAL OF THE SWINE TIMES Good morning hog traders I hope everyone had a wonderful Christmas and the hangover is not getting you down this morning. Lets get to the week ahead. We enter the week long 1 unit of Feb hogs with around 67 cents with… Read more.
The Swine Times- Quarterly hogs and pigs review (12/22/2017) - CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP FOR A FREE TRIAL OF THE SWINE TIMES Hello hog traders Quarterly hog and pig reports came out this morning as did cold storage. The report came out very close to expectations. All hogs came in at 102% of last year’s levels, we are at 101% breeding levels compared to… Read more.
TWIG Note 12/22- Protecting the cotton run up (12/22/2017) - Good morning friends Just wanted to give everyone an update on cotton. March futures are starting to move parabolically again as we test 78 cents this morning. Producers with production unsold that is waiting to be ginned should be looking at put options or some sort of hedge at these price levels. At current prices… Read more.
This Week in Grain and Oilseeds 12/18-12/22 (12/18/2017) - Good morning friends The holidays are officially upon us as we enter the last full week of trading for the year. CBOT markets are in the green to start the week while cotton is slightly in the red as I write this article. March corn is up about a penny after trading… Read more.
The Swine Times- 12/18-12/22 (12/18/2017) - CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP FOR A FREE TRIAL OF THE SWINE TIMES Happy Monday Hog Traders, Before we get started, publishers of the Swine Times were on the weekend “talking head” shows This Week in Agribusiness and US Farm Report. Check out Donna and John below by clicking on the images. They will take you… Read more.
The Swine Times- 12/11-12/15 (12/11/2017) - CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP FOR A FREE TRIAL OF THE SWINE TIMES Good morning hog traders Current positions: Short 1 unit of Feb hogs Last week we took profit on our Long Dec-Short Feb position. Below is how the weekly product market changed for the week ending 12/8/2017. Looking into next week: The dominant… Read more.
This Week in Grain and Oilseeds 11/13-11/17 (11/13/2017) - Good afternoon friends! Corn (Z17) 342’2 -1’2 Soybeans (F18) 974’4 -12’6 Chi Wheat (Z17) 424’0 -7’4 KC Wheat (Z18) 428’0 -5’2 Cotton (Z17) 68.96 -.09 Markets were softer at the CBOT as we start the week, led by wheat which has shed most of Friday’s gains trading back in familiar territory below 430 in… Read more.
The Swine Times- Trade recommendation 11/10 (11/10/2017) - CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP FOR A FREE TRIAL OF THE SWINE TIMES Good morning hog traders We are looking to cover our April-June hog bear spread at 9.75 cents premium to the June hogs. We entered this trade near 5.50 cents to the June, profits are so far near 3.50. This trade has gone… Read more.
TRADING OPPORTUNITIES IN LEAN HOG SPREADS (11/3/2017) - Spread Trading has traditionally been known as a professional’s trading strategy. However, we feel it is a trading method that should be in everyone’s arsenal. If you are going to follow along with Swine Times recommendations from a speculative perspective, you will need to understand this. We will take directional positions in a market, but… Read more.
The Swine Times- Trade recomendation 8/31 (8/31/2017) - CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP FOR A FREE TRIAL OF THE SWINE TIMES Good afternoon everyone If you are signed up for the newsletter alerts, you should have seen our recommendation to sell Oct hogs at 62 cents. We were filled on this recommendation around noon today. In our Monday morning weekly commentary we spoke… Read more.
The Swine Times- Trade recomendation 8/29 (8/29/2017) - CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP FOR A FREE TRIAL OF THE SWINE TIMES Good afternoon everyone If you are reading this, you should have received our first trade recommendation around 11:30 am central time today. This is the first trade-able recommendation from the newsletter, we hope it came across clean and understandable. Keep in mind… Read more.
This Week in Grain and Oilseeds 8/7-8/11 (8/7/2017) - Good morning friends! Corn (U17) 362’2 -2’6 Soybeans (X17) 962’6 -14’6 Chi Wheat (U17) 458’2 -2’4 KC Wheat (U17) 460’0 -4’4 Cotton (Z17) 70.21 -.13 Good morning friends! CBOT markets along with cotton are green across the board as we cover new shorts ahead of a big couple of days. This afternoon we… Read more.
Thursday Morning in Grain and Oilseeds 8/3 (8/3/2017) - Good morning friends! Corn (U17) 362’2 -2’6 Soybeans (X17) 962’6 -14’6 Chi Wheat (U17) 458’2 -2’4 KC Wheat (U17) 460’0 -4’4 Cotton (Z17) 70.21 -.13 Good morning friends! Markets are reverting to their Q2 market pattern with CBOT markets weak and cotton moving higher. The overnight price action at the CBOT has been heavy… Read more.
Tuesday Morning in Grain and Oilseeds 7/25 (7/25/2017) - Good morning friends! Corn (U17) 374’2 -3’0 Soybeans (X17) 1017’4 +7’4 Chi Wheat (U17) 485’4 -3’2 KC Wheat (U17) 484-0 -3’4 Cotton (Z17) 68.76 +.47 Good morning friends! Markets opened in wild fashion after surprising bullish soybean crop progress reports were released at 4 pm. Beans spiked on the open from their close around 1010… Read more.
This Week in Grain and Oilseeds 7/24-7/28 (7/24/2017) - Good morning friends! Corn (U17) 372’0 -7’6 Soybeans (X17) 1003’0 -19’2 Chi Wheat (U17) 491’6 -7’4 KC Wheat (U17) 488’0 -8’0 Cotton (Z17) 68.07 -.32 Good morning friends! CBOT board is covered in red this morning after a weekend of showers in the Central/Eastern Corn Belt. Markets opened lower across the board in corn, beans… Read more.
This Week in Grain and Oilseeds 7/17-7/21 (7/17/2017) - Good morning friends! Corn (U17) 374-6 -1’4 Soybeans (X17) 1005’0 +3’4 Chi Wheat (U17) 509’4 -1’2 KC Wheat (U17) 509’4 -4’0 Cotton (Z17) 66.68 +.09 Good morning friends! Markets traded both sides of unchanged last night here in Chicago. KC wheat leads the way lower (off 5 cents), beans higher (up 2)… Read more.
This Week in Grain and Oilseeds 7/10-7/14 (7/10/2017) - Good morning friends! Corn (U17) 399’2 +6’6 Soybeans (X17) 1034’6 +19’2 Chi Wheat (U17) 549’0 +14’0 KC Wheat (U17) 541’4 +12’0 Cotton (Z17) 68.51 -.08 Good morning friends! CBOT markets continued their reign of fire in the Sunday night trade as corn, beans wheat made moves back to recent highs or even above… Read more.
This Week in Grain and Oilseeds 7/3-7/7 (7/3/2017) - Good morning friends! Corn (U17) 388’2 +7’2 Soybeans (X17) 976’0 +21’2 Chi Wheat (U17) 537’4 +11’4 KC Wheat (U17) 541’4 +12’0 Cotton (Z17) 68.24 -.35 Good morning friends! Volatility from Friday spilled over into Sunday’s overnight trade as forecasts for two weeks out look hot and dry for much of the northern Midwest.… Read more.
This Week in Grain and Oilseeds 6/26-6/30 Weekly Wrap (6/30/2017) - Good morning friends! Corn (N17) 370’0 +10’2 Soybeans (N17) 952’4 +27’6 Chi Wheat (N17) 940’2 +24’6 KC Wheat (N17) 509’6 +29’2 Cotton (Z17) 68.69 +1.45 Hello friends! End of the week, end of the quarter, end of the half…MAYBE the end of the bear grain market from 2014 -2016??? Tough call, way too early… Read more.
Wednesday Morning in Grain and Oilseeds 6/28 (6/28/2017) - Good morning friends! Corn (N17) 359’2 unch Soybeans (N17) 911’4 +’6 Chi Wheat (N17) 452’4 -‘6 KC Wheat (N17) 457’2 unch Cotton (Z17) 66.90 -.81 Good morning friends! It was pretty quiet here in Chicago last night, prices were within a few pennies of unchanged across the CBOT. Up in Minneapolis though, we saw prices for… Read more.
This Week in Grain and Oilseeds 6/26-6/30 (6/26/2017) - Good morning friends! Corn (N17) 360’2 +2’4 Soybeans (N17) 910’2 +5’6 Chi Wheat (N17) 453’4 -6’2 KC Wheat (N17) 457’4 -6’6 Cotton (Z17) 66.83 -.19 Good morning friends! I am back in the saddle this morning after a week away. Markets moved like they normally do when I am off the screen, I hope you took my… Read more.
This Week in Grain and Oilseeds 6/12-6/16 (6/12/2017) - Good morning friends! Corn (N17) 381-2 -6’4 Soybeans (N17) 941’2 -6’6 Chi Wheat (N17) 439 -6’6 KC Wheat (N17) 445’2 -6’2 Cotton (Z17) 72.56 +.07 Good morning friends! Markets awoke in a sour mood last night as the weather forecasts look to improve as we march ahead through June. It is hot and… Read more.
This Week in Grain and Oilseeds 6/5-6/11 (6/5/2017) - Good morning friends! Corn (N17) 373’4 +’6 Soybeans (N17) 922’6 +1’4 Chi Wheat (N17) 429’4 unch KC Wheat (N17) 432’0 -1’2 Cotton (Z17) 72.98 Good morning friends! Sunday overnight price action started with some optimism on the board, but that gave way to commercial selling as the night wore on. We find prices on the CBOT where we… Read more.
Thursday Morning in Grain and Oilseeds 6/1 (6/1/2017) - Good morning friends! Corn (N17) 372’6 +’6 Soybeans (N17) 918’4 +2’4 Chi Wheat (N17) 429’0 -‘2 KC Wheat (N17) 432’0 +’2 Cotton (Z17) 72.74 -.05 Good morning friends! Welcome to June! Overnight price action was slightly higher at the CBOT with litte volume reported. The holiday pushed back the normal market reports one day, which puts USDA export numbers… Read more.
Wednesday Morning in Grain and Oilseeds 5/31 (5/31/2017) - Good morning friends! Corn (N17) 371’0 +4’0 Soybeans (N17) 914′ +1’4 Chi Wheat (N17) 432’0 +2’2 KC Wheat (N17) 436’2 ‘3’0 Cotton (Z17) 72.42 -.33 Good morning friends! Crop progress reports have given the bulls some optimism as overnight price action has corn and wheat prices up +1%. Soybean markets are doing their best to come along for the… Read more.
TWIG Note 5/10 WASDE RECAP VIDEO (5/5/2017) - Hello friends! I had to do some video for the folks at US Farm Report/Ag Day to recap the WASDE, I figured I would share it on the newsletter. I discuss the WASDE more in video but if you are looking for a short takeaway I would be bullish corn, bullish/neutral beans, neutral wheat… Read more.
Wednesday Morning in Grain and Oilseeds 5/3 (5/3/2017) - Corn (N17) 371’4 -‘6 Soybeans (N17) 965’0 +1’0 Chi Wheat (N17) 447’0 -7’0 KC Wheat (N17) 458’0 -9’6 Cotton (Z17) 74.59 -.34 KC wheat is rolling over this morning, foreign markets refuse to follow the US wheat markets higher. It is important to remember that the US is a price taker when it comes to wheat, gone are… Read more.
This Week in Grain 4/28- APRIL WRAP UP- COT DATA, WEATHER, MONTHLY CHARTS (4/28/2017) - Corn (N17) 366’4 -3’6 Soybeans (N17) 955’4 -1’6 Chi Wheat (K17) 431’6 +’4 KC Wheat (N17) 436’6 +3’0 Cotton (Z17) 74.55 +.25 Hello friends! In honor of the end of the month and the rain which keeps me inside, I packed this blog with more stuff than ever. Weekly wrap up, weather forecasts, podcasts, monthly charts,… Read more.
Friday Morning in Grain and Oilseeds 4/28 (4/28/2017) - Good morning friends! Corn (K17) 366’4 -2’0 Soybeans (K17) 954;6 -2’4 Chi Wheat (K17) 433’0 -1’6 KC Wheat (K17) 436’6 +3’0 Cotton (Z17) 74.35 -.10 Its the end of April, which means first notice day for May contracts at CBOT (cotton is past FND). If you find yourself long either in a futures account or in an… Read more.
Wednesday Morning in Grain and Oilseeds 4/26 (4/26/2017) - Good morning friends! Corn (K17) 372’0 +’2 Soybeans (K17) 958’6 -3’0 Chi Wheat (K17) 410’0 +1’2 KC Wheat (K17) 414’0 +2’0 Cotton (Z17) 74.80 -.20 Corn/wheat markets are slightly higher this morning after a heavy volume trade yesterday, running shorts out and prices back to the 50 day moving average for corn and to last weeks… Read more.
Tuesday Morning in Grain and Oilseeds 4/25 (4/21/2017) - Good morning friends! Corn (K17) 356’4 -2’6 Soybeans (K17) 955’6 -5’5 Chi Wheat (K17) 399’6 -2’6 KC Wheat (K17) 401’4 -‘4 Cotton (Z17) 74.75 -.21 Overnight price action at the CBOT is seeing lows from last week pressured as the delivery for May approaches. Deliveries on May futures need to be posted by Thursday’s… Read more.
This Week in Grain 4/17-4/21 (4/17/2017) - Good morning friends! Corn (K17) 369’6 -1’2 Soybeans (K17) 956’2 +’6 Chi Wheat (K17) 428’4 -1’4 KC Wheat (K17) 424’6 -2’6 Cotton (Z17) 73.50 +.30 USDA S/D reports are behind us for the time being, which means weather model watching to try to get idea of how the planting is going to progress this year. Over the weekend, ag… Read more.
Thursday Morning in Grain and Oilseeds 4/13 (4/13/2017) - Good morning friends! Corn (K17) 371’2 +2’2 Soybeans (K17) 962’6 +7’2 Chi Wheat (K17) 431’0 +1’0 KC Wheat (K17) 434’4 +1’2 Cotton (Z17) 73.30 A slightly more bullish tone was seen in the overnight last night with soymeal leading the way. This will be the last you hear from me this week, markets are closed tomorrow… Read more.
Wednesday Morning in Grain and Oilseeds 4/12 (4/12/2017) - Good morning friends! Corn (K17) 367’0 +’4 Soybeans (K17) 945’2 +6’0 Chi Wheat (K17) 433’0 -‘2 KC Wheat (K17) 429’6 unch Cotton (Z17) 73.07 -.25 The market has digested 3 big USDA numbers in the last month and appears to be standing. CBOT markets have been like Rocky vs the Russian in Rocky IV where… Read more.
This Morning in Grain and Oilseeds 4/11 (4/11/2017) - Good morning friends! Corn (K17) 366’2 -‘6 Soybeans (K17) 942’6 +1’0 Chi Wheat (K17) 427’0 -1’6 KC Wheat (K17) 423’2 -2’2 Cotton (Z17) 75.25 +.01 The overnight trade was very slow on the CBOT as markets coil up ahead of what many think will be a quiet number today. The US new crop numbers that could really… Read more.
This Week in Grain- 4/10-4/13 (4/3/2017) - Good morning friends! Corn (K17) 364’2 +1’6 Soybeans (K17)947’2 +5’0 Chi Wheat (K17) 425’0 +1’0 KC Wheat (K17) 421’0 -‘6 Cotton (Z17) 72.42 +.13 We have a holiday shortened week ahead of us with markets closed on Friday, but that does not mean its not a busy morning here in Chicago. Let me first say… Read more.
This Week in Grain- 3/31 AM Big Report Day (3/31/2017) - Good morning friends! Corn (K17) 358’2 +1’0 Soybeans (K17) 963’2 unch Chi Wheat (K17) 422’2 +1’4 KC Wheat (K17) 418’6 +1’2 Cotton (Z17) 73.78 +.09 No need to waste a lot of time recapping a slow and boring overnight trade. I compare the ag markets today like that scene from Wizard of Oz where a black and white Dorthy opens… Read more.
This Week in Grain- 3/30 AM Commentary (3/30/2017) - Good morning friends! Corn (K17) 357’6 -‘6 Soybeans (K17) 965’6 -3’2 Chi Wheat (K17) 425’0 -‘4 KC Wheat (K17) 424’2 +’6 Cotton (Z17) 74.02 -.87 Here I sit a little less than 30 hours from the stocks/acreage report on a cold and rainy morning in Chicago as US FOB NOLA beans sit at 5 year lows as the… Read more.
This Week in Grain- 3/29 AM Commentary (3/29/2017) - Good morning friends! Corn (K17) 359’4 +1’6 Soybeans (K17) 974’0 +1’6 Chi Wheat (K17) 426’6 +2’2 KC Wheat (K17) 426’4 +2’4 Cotton (Z17) 74.87 -.02 We now sit just over 48 hours away from the big grain stocks/acreage report released by the USDA on Friday. The market has perked up a little in the overnight at the CBOT… Read more.
This Week in Grain- 3/27 AM Commentary (3/27/2017) - Good morning friends! Corn (K17)357’4 +1’4 Soybeans (K17) 975’2 -1’4 Chi Wheat (K17) 423’0 -1’0 KC Wheat (K17) 424’4 -3’4 Cotton (Z17) 75.39 -.10 Happy Monday morning, its going to be a busy week here in Chicago with month ending so lets get to it. Focus of the Ag markets will be the grain stocks/acreage report… Read more.
This Week in Grain- 3/23 AM Commentary (3/23/2017) - Good morning friends! Corn (K17) 358’2 -‘2 Soybeans (K17) 995’0 -3’6 Chi Wheat (K17) 422’4 +’2 KC Wheat (K17) 444’0 -‘6 Cotton (Z17) 75.49 +.33 Good morning friends The Brazilian meat scandal enters day 3, with the Chinese government weighing in on things and banning Brazilian poultry and beef from entering the country. They join a host of… Read more.
This Week in Grain- 3/22 AM Commentary (3/22/2017) - Good morning friends! Corn (K17) 360’2 -1’0 Soybeans (K17) 995’6 -2’4 Chi Wheat (K17) 434’2 -4’0 KC Wheat (K17) 446’2 -4’0 Cotton (Z17) 74.98 +.10 CBOT markets traded lower again in the overnight, with yesterdays lows pressured in corn, beans and wheat. Cotton markets are slightly higher as the ICE market feels very correlated with the stock market these… Read more.
This Week in Grain- 3/20-3/24 (3/20/2017) - Good morning friends! Corn (K17) 369’2 +1’6 Soybeans (K17) 997’0 +3’0 Chi Wheat (K17) 438’6 +2’4 KC Wheat (K17) 454’2 +’6 Cotton (Z17) 75.67 +.04 Happy Monday, I hope your weekend went well. The markets has to digest over the coming two weeks, and that is discounting the Brazilian beef and Brexit stories that developed over… Read more.
This Week in Grain- 3/17 AM Commentary (3/17/2017) - Good morning friends! Corn (K17) 365’4 -‘4 Soybeans (K17) 998’2 -3’2 Chi Wheat (K17) 436’0 unch KC Wheat (K17) 450’4 +’4 Cotton (Z17) 75.41 -.05 CBOT markets were slow in the overnight with tight ranges and little volume. The markets appear to have lost a lot of enthusiasm for these overnight sessions of late. There is… Read more.
This Week in Grain- 3/16 AM Commentary (3/16/2017) - Good morning friends! Corn (K17) 365’6 +2’2 Soybeans (K17) 1005’0 +4’2 Chi Wheat (K17) 438’2 +2’2 KC Wheat (K17) 450’2 +3’0 Cotton (Z17) 75.36 +.01 CBOT markets are higher after the solid close following the commodity run up after yesterday’s Fed rate hike. It was typical “sell the rumor, buy the fact” type of a reaction… Read more.
This Week in Grain- 3/15 AM Commentary (3/15/2017) - Good morning friends! Corn (K17) 364’2 +2’0 Soybeans (K17) 1006’0 +5’0 Chi Wheat (K17) 436’2 +5’6 KC Wheat (K17) 449’2 +6’6 Cotton (Z17) 75.26 +.23 CBOT markets are in a good mood as the FOMC meeting approaches at 1 pm today. The market odds for a rate hike are rather high, so if something… Read more.
This Week in Grain- 3/13-3/17 (3/13/2017) - Good morning friends! Corn (K17) 362’4 -1’4 Soybeans (K17) 1005’4 -1’0 Chi Wheat (K17) 436’6 -3’6 KC Wheat (H17) 462’4 -5’0 Cotton (Z17) 74.99 -.30 CBOT markets are lower on follow thru selling across the board here in Chicago and in New York. The only markets i notice that are not lower this morning on my… Read more.
This Week in Grain- 3/10 AM Commentary (3/10/2017) - Good morning friends! Corn (K17) 365’2 -1’6 Soybeans (K17) 1005’2 -5’6 Chi Wheat (K17) 441’2 -2’6 KC Wheat (H17) 461’0 -1’4 Cotton (Z17) 75.25 -.29 Markets are lower following yesterday’s WASDE. While the US balance sheets offered little changes, the global balance sheet showed combined stocks of corn, beans and wheat 5% higher than a year… Read more.
TWIG Note 3/9- WASDE Recap (3/9/2017) - The USDA released WASDE at 11 central here in Chicago. The report was not that much different than a month ago from the US standpoint. The world numbers came in slightly bearish for corn and beans, and given the price action in crude we could see some follow thru over coming days as premium comes… Read more.
This Week in Grain – AM Update 3/9 (3/9/2017) - This week will be a slower one from a macro data release stand point, but February WASDE will be released on Thursday which should be the focus of all 4 row crops we cover.
This Week in Grain AM Update 3/7 (3/7/2017) - This week will be a slower one from a macro data release stand point, but February WASDE will be released on Thursday which should be the focus of all 4 row crops we cover.
This Week in Grain 3/6-3/10 (3/6/2017) - This week will be a slower one from a macro data release stand point, but February WASDE will be released on Thursday which should be the focus of all 4 row crops we cover.
This Week in Grain 2/28- Monthly Wrap (2/28/2017) - This week will be a slower one from a macro data release stand point, but February WASDE will be released on Thursday which should be the focus of all 4 row crops we cover.
This Week in Grain 2/27- 3/3 (2/27/2017) - This week will be a slower one from a macro data release stand point, but February WASDE will be released on Thursday which should be the focus of all 4 row crops we cover.
This Week in Grain – 2/24 AM commentary (2/24/2017) - This week will be a slower one from a macro data release stand point, but February WASDE will be released on Thursday which should be the focus of all 4 row crops we cover.
This Week in Grain – 2/23 AM commentary (2/23/2017) - This week will be a slower one from a macro data release stand point, but February WASDE will be released on Thursday which should be the focus of all 4 row crops we cover.
This Week in Grain – 2/22 AM commentary (2/22/2017) - This week will be a slower one from a macro data release stand point, but February WASDE will be released on Thursday which should be the focus of all 4 row crops we cover.
This Week in Grain – 2/21-2/24 (2/21/2017) - This week will be a slower one from a macro data release stand point, but February WASDE will be released on Thursday which should be the focus of all 4 row crops we cover.
This Week in Grain – 2/16 AM Commentary (2/16/2017) - This week will be a slower one from a macro data release stand point, but February WASDE will be released on Thursday which should be the focus of all 4 row crops we cover.
This Week in Grain – 2/15 AM Commentary (2/15/2017) - This week will be a slower one from a macro data release stand point, but February WASDE will be released on Thursday which should be the focus of all 4 row crops we cover.
This Week in Grain – 2/14 AM Commentary (2/14/2017) - This week will be a slower one from a macro data release stand point, but February WASDE will be released on Thursday which should be the focus of all 4 row crops we cover.
This Week in Grain – 2/13-2/17 (2/13/2017) - This week will be a slower one from a macro data release stand point, but February WASDE will be released on Thursday which should be the focus of all 4 row crops we cover.
This Week in Grain – AM Commentary 2/9- WASDE DAY (2/9/2017) - This week will be a slower one from a macro data release stand point, but February WASDE will be released on Thursday which should be the focus of all 4 row crops we cover.
TWIG Note 2/8- Cotton hedge recommendation explained (2/8/2017) - This week will be a slower one from a macro data release stand point, but February WASDE will be released on Thursday which should be the focus of all 4 row crops we cover.
This Week in Grain – AM Commentary 2/7 (2/7/2017) - This week will be a slower one from a macro data release stand point, but February WASDE will be released on Thursday which should be the focus of all 4 row crops we cover.
TWIG Note 2/6- Open Interest Audio Update (2/6/2017) - This week will be a slower one from a macro data release stand point, but February WASDE will be released on Thursday which should be the focus of all 4 row crops we cover.
This Week in Grain – 2/6-2/10 (2/6/2017) - This week will be a slower one from a macro data release stand point, but February WASDE will be released on Thursday which should be the focus of all 4 row crops we cover.
This Week in Grain- 2/3 AM Commentary (2/3/2017) - Good afternoon friends! Corn (H17) 365’6 -1’6 Soybeans (H17) 1036’6 Chi Wheat (H17) 430’6 KC Wheat (H17) 441’2 -2’2 Cotton (H17) 76.42 -.50 Today will be an early day for me, I have to run out to South Bend to appear as a guest on US Farm Report. I believe it air’s this weekend, Ill… Read more.
TWIG Note- 2/2 Cotton update (2/2/2017) - Good afternoon friends! Corn (H17) 366’6 -1’4 Soybeans (H17) 1035’4 -1’2 Chi Wheat (H17) 434’2 +’4 KC Wheat (H17) 443’4 +3’0 Cotton (H17) 76.85 +.41 Im checking back in this PM to talk about a cotton! The market has gone parabolic of late, with all contracts out to Dec 17 testing the summer highs.… Read more.
This Week in Grain- 2/2 AM Commentaray (2/1/2017) - Good morning friends Corn (H17) 359’4 -‘2 Soybeans (H17) 1022’0 -2’4 Chi Wheat (H17) 418’2 -2’4 KC Wheat (H17) 426’0 -3’4 Cotton (H17) 75.61 +.67 CBOT markets are slightly lower after the dynamite close yesterday in all row crops. The rally came on the back of bullish macro factors, thanks to the… Read more.
This Week in Grain- 1/31 AM Commentary (1/31/2017) - Good morning friends Corn (H17) 358’+ +1’0 Soybeans (H17) 1025’4 +2’6 Chi Wheat (H17) 414’6 +’4 KC Wheat (H17) 425 ‘0 -‘6 Cotton (H17) 74.49 +.39 CBOT markets are steady following sharp declines yesterday, led by the soy complex. ICE cotton markets are slightly higher as well after a reversal pattern was seen on… Read more.
This Week in Grain- 1/30-2/3 (1/30/2017) - Good morning friends Corn (H17) 358’4 -4’0 Soybeans (H17) 1036’0 -13’2 Chi Wheat (H17) 416’2 -4’2 KC Wheat (H17) 430’2 -4’0 Cotton (H17) 74.54 -.31 CBOT markets are weak in the overnight as new positions get adjusted after option expiration last Friday. Cotton markets are slightly weaker as the rest of… Read more.
This Week in Grain- 1/26 AM Commentary (1/26/2017) - Good morning friends Corn (H17) 365’2 -1’0 Soybeans (H17) 1052’6 Chi Wheat (H17) 426’4 +2’0 KC Wheat (H17) 440’4 +2’6 Cotton (H17) 74.60 +.72 Good morning friends! Ill be speaking about the markets tomorrow at the Montana Winter Fair in Lewistown, Montana so this will be the last you hear from me this week. USDA… Read more.
This Week in Grain- 1/25 AM Commentary (1/25/2017) - Good morning friends Corn (H17) 362’0 -1’2 Soybeans (H17) 1054’4 -4’4 Chi Wheat (H17) 423’6 -3’0 KC Wheat (H17) 439’4 -2’2 Cotton (H17) 73.27 -.30 CBOT markets are lower in the overnight, led by Chicago wheat which is falling toward 420 into the option expiration on Friday. I look for support around there.… Read more.
This Week in Grain- 1/23-1/27 (1/23/2017) - Good morning friends Corn (H17) 369’4 -‘2 Soybeans (H17) 1062’0 -5’2 Chi Wheat (H17) 429’2 +1’0 KC Wheat (H17) 441’4 -1’4 Cotton (H17) 73.80 +.76 CBOT Markets are slightly lower this morning after little volume in the Sunday night session, while ICE cotton trades higher- led by front month March’s push toward 74 cents.… Read more.
This Week in Grain- Weekly Wrap 1/20 (1/20/2017) - Good morning friends Corn (H17) 370’0 +3’6 Soybeans (H17) 1067’6 -2’4 Chi Wheat (H17) 428’0 +’4’6 KC Wheat (H17) 446’6 +1’4 Cotton (H17) 72.94 +.25 CHECK OUT THE AUDIO BELOW FOR COMMENTARY Trade ideas: -New trade idea- I would look to sell some September corn around 3.95. It kinda feels like Dec 17… Read more.
This Week in Grain- 1/20 AM Commentary (1/20/2017) - Good morning friends Corn (H17) 366’0 unch Soybeans (H17) 1061’0 -9’2 Chi Wheat (H17) 423’0 -‘4 KC Wheat (H17) 439’6 -2’4 Cotton (H17) 73.02 +.23 It is inauguration day for President-elect Donald Trump, the day everyone has been awaiting or dreading since November 8th, depending on your politics. Other than the official swearing… Read more.
This Week in Grain- 1/19 AM Commentary (1/19/2017) - Good morning friends Corn (H17) 365’0 unch Soybeans (H17) 1084’4 -3’6 Chi Wheat (H17) 428’4 KC Wheat (H17) 450’0 -2’2 Cotton (H17) 72.97 +.86 Outside markets are quiet as of 7 am central, although that may change by the time you are reading this. Mario Draghi has taken the stage at his ECB press conference and is… Read more.
This Week in Grain- 1/18 AM Update (1/18/2017) - Good morning friends Corn (H17) 364’2 -1’2 Soybeans (H17) 1064’6 -4’4 Chi Wheat (H17) 432’6 -‘6 KC Wheat (H17) 450’6 -1’2 Cotton (H17) 72.21 +.10 Overnight CBOT and cotton trading has been quiet with early soybean softness from the open last night (Nov beans down 8 on the open) paired back to unch. Today is an… Read more.
This Week in Grain- 1/17-1/20 (1/17/2017) - Good morning friends Corn (H17) 362’0 +3’4 Soybeans (H17) 1061’2 +15’0 Chi Wheat (H17) 430’0 +4’0 KC Wheat (H17) 451’2 +2’2 Cotton (H17) 72.54 +.27 Anytime I leave for a vacation, I always expect chaos in the markets. While “chaos” may be a little heavy of a term for the recent price action, the… Read more.
This Week in Grain- 1/11 AM – WASDE (1/11/2017) - Good morning friends Corn (H17) 356’4 -1’6 Soybeans (H17) 1012’0 -1’6 Chi Wheat (H17) 422’4 -4’0 KC Wheat (H17) 432’6 -5’4 Cotton (H17) 73.57 +.38 Good morning friends CBOT and corn markets have been quiet in the overnight, wheat is the only market that has traded outside of yesterday’s range down about 1% in KC… Read more.
This Week in Grain- 1/10 AM Update (1/10/2017) - Good morning friends Corn (H17) 357’6 -2’2 Soybeans (H17) 1001’4 3’6 Chi Wheat (H17) 424’2 -3’0 KC Wheat (H17) 435’2 -3’2 Cotton (H17) 73.56 +.57 Cotton is higher in the overnight by a shade under 1%, as Dec 17 pops its head above 71 cents for the first time this week. Wheat, corn and beans… Read more.
This Week in Grain- AM Update 1/9-1/13 (1/9/2017) - Good morning friends Corn (H17) 358’2 +’2 Soybeans (H17) 994’6 unch Chi Wheat (H17) 426’2 +3’2 KC Wheat (H17) 436’0 +2’6 Cotton (H17) 73.74 -.25 Cotton markets are slightly lower on the ICE contract, while CBOT markets wheat and corn are slightly higher this morning. Soybean prices are flat after retest of 10.00 in the overnight last… Read more.
This Week in Grain- AM Update 1/5 (1/5/2017) - Good morning friends Corn (H17) 359’4 -‘6 Soybeans (H17) 1011’0 -4’2 Chi Wheat (H17) 418’6 -‘2 KC Wheat (H17) 441’4 -‘4 Cotton (H17) 72.20 +.60 The big upday we saw from cotton yesterday is seeing follow thru this morning as March futures get over 75 and Dec 17 futures trade above 72 for the first… Read more.
This Week in Grain- AM Update 1/4 (1/4/2017) - Good morning friends Corn (H17) 356’4 +’6 Soybeans (H17) 998’6 +3’6 Chi Wheat (H17) 407’0 +’4 KC Wheat (H17) 416’2 +2’2 Cotton (H17) 71.85 +.07 It was a positive start to the year for cotton markets as a positive tilt to the world economic picture has many believing cotton consumption is on the… Read more.
This Week in Grain 1/3-1/7 (1/3/2017) - Welcome to 2017! Corn (H17) 352’4 +’4 Soybeans (H17) 1001’2 -2’6 Chi Wheat (H17) 410’0 +2’0 KC Wheat (H17) 419’0 +’4 Cotton (H17) 71.58 +.93 So far, the overnight price action in 2017 has been quiet at the CBOT and a little bullish in cotton as we get the year started. The currency price… Read more.
This Year in Grain- Putting a Bow on 2016 (12/30/2016) - Happy new year friends! Corn (H17) 351’0 +1’2 Soybeans (F17) 1005’0 -7’6 Chi Wheat (H17) 408’6 +4’0 KC Wheat (H17) 418’6 +3’4 Cotton (H17) 70.72 +.22 Before I get into the breakdown I want to thank everyone for following along with me in 2016. Putting the puzzle together can be difficult, I could not have attempted… Read more.
This Week in Grain- 12/27-12/30 (12/27/2016) - Good morning friends! Corn (H17) 349’6 +4’0 Soybeans (F17) 1001’4 +12’2 Chi Wheat (H17) 399’2 +5’6 KC Wheat (H17) 412’2 +6’0 Cotton (H17) 69.95 +.05 CBOT and cotton markets have awoken from holiday slumber in a good mood this Tuesday morning. Cotton is relatively unchanged while soybeans, wheat and corn are pressuring newly executed shorts from… Read more.
This Week in Grain- 12/23 AM update- Holiday hours (12/23/2016) - Good morning and Merry Christmas friends, Corn (H17) 346’2 -1’0 Soybeans (F17) 993’2 -‘2 Chi Wheat (H17) 399’4 -1’0 KC Wheat (H17) 409’2 unch Cotton (H17) 70.34 +.021 CBOT prices were quiet in the overnight, soybeans making a little news breaking below it’s 100 day MA and then retracing. Soybeans have some… Read more.
This Week in Grain- 12/22 AM update (12/22/2016) - Good morning friends Corn (H17) 346’2 -1’0 Soybeans (F17) 1008’2 -1’0 Chi Wheat (H17) 399’4 -1’0 KC Wheat (H17) 409’2 unch Cotton (H17) 70.34 +.021 Hello friends Much like the rains falling in Argentina, CBOT markets fall in overnight trading for the 4th evening in a row. Corn, wheat and beans are all… Read more.
This Week in Grain- 12/21 AM update (12/21/2016) - Good morning friends Corn (H17) 349’2 -1’0 Soybeans (F17) 1008’0 +2’4 Chi Wheat (H17) 401’4 -1’6 KC Wheat (H17) 410’2 -2’2 Cotton (H17) 69.70 +.37 CBOT markets were quiet in the overnight, corn and wheat traded with little enthusiasm while new crop soybeans traded up a few pennies in an attempt to get back… Read more.
This Week in Grain- 12/19-12/23 Santa Claus Week (12/19/2016) - Good morning friends Corn (H17) 354’6 -1’4 Soybeans (F17) 1025’6 -11’0 Chi Wheat (H17) 410’6 +1’4 KC Wheat (H17) 417’6 +3’0 Cotton (H17) 70.85 -.82 CBOT session started this holiday week (the holiday is next week, but the volume will reflect this week as well) on a sour note in soybeans and cotton,… Read more.
This Week in Grain- 12/16 Friday AM (12/16/2016) - Good morning friends Corn (H17) 357’2 +’6 Soybeans (F17) 1032’2 +3’2 Chi Wheat (H17) 408’0 -1’2 KC Wheat (H17) 411’0 -1’6 Cotton (H17) 71.22 -.45 CBOT markets were very slow last night while cotton markets opened slightly lower and remain so into the 7 am hour. Cotton and beans had impressive days yesterday given… Read more.
This Week in Grain- 12/15 AM update (12/15/2016) - Good morning friends Corn (H17) 360’2 -1’6 Soybeans (F17) 1022’2 -1’6 Chi Wheat (H17) 414’6 -3’2 KC Wheat (H17) 417’0 -3’0 Cotton (H17) 71.47 unch Currency markets are falling fast against the USD, this also includes crude oil and the precious metals markets. Silver is off 6% since the close yesterday, almost… Read more.
This Week in Grain- 12/14 POST FED AUDIO (12/14/2016) - Good afternoon friends Corn (H17) 362’0 +1’0 Soybeans (F17) 1023’6 -4’2 Chi Wheat (H17) 418’0 +’4 KC Wheat (H17) 420’0 +4’6 Cotton (H17) 71.47 -.57 It has been risk off since the Fed announcement at 1:00 central. Dec 17 cotton failed again at 70 cents, closing closer to 69 cents. The equity… Read more.
This Week in Grain- 12/14 FED DAY (12/14/2016) - Good morning friends Corn (H17) 359’2 -1’6 Soybeans (F17) 1021’0 -7’0 Chi Wheat (H17) 413’4 -4’0 KC Wheat (H17) 412’2 -3’0 Cotton (H17) 71.96 -.08 Grain markets were lower across the board amidst a tight trading range last night. Corn and bean markets are focused on moisture approaching the parched areas of Argentina… Read more.
This Week in Grain- 12/13 AM Update (12/13/2016) - Good morning friends Corn (H17) 360’0 -‘4 Soybeans (F17) 1034’2 +3’0 Chi Wheat (H17) 415’6 -1’4 KC Wheat (H17) 413’6 -1’0 Cotton (H17) 72.14 +.45 Overnight price action was slow on the CBOT, but over on the ICE exchange in cotton a breakout appears to be something the market wants to try. Its… Read more.
This Week in Grain- 12/12-12/16 (12/12/2016) - Good morning friends Corn (H17) 358’0 -1’4 Soybeans (F17) 1037’6 +’2 Chi Wheat (H17) 408’6 -7’6 KC Wheat (H17) 407’0 -6’4 Cotton (H17) 71.32 +.32 Overnight price action was weak across the board in CBOT markets, with only cotton and bean oil higher on my screen this morning. Crude oil will start the… Read more.
This Week in Grain- 12/9 Weekly Wrap (12/9/2016) - Good afternoon friends Corn (H17) 359’4 +6’0 Soybeans (F17) 1037’4 +10’4 Chi Wheat (H17) 416’2 +8’6 KC Wheat (H17) 413’4 +8’6 Cotton (H17) 70.80 -.62 WASDE was uneventful for the CBOT markets, with slight raises in world carryovers being observed. Cotton production was raised slightly, which brought the carryout higher as well. The… Read more.
This Week in Grain- 12/9 WASDE Preview (12/9/2016) - Good afternoon friends Corn (H17) 355’0 +1’4 Soybeans (F17) 1031’6 +4’6 Chi Wheat (H17) 408’2 unch KC Wheat (H17) 404’6 -6 Cotton (H17) 71.24 -.18 Corn and wheat markets were quiet in the overnight trading within 1% of yesterday’s close. Soybeans had a little more volatility but an early evening selloff has been erased… Read more.
This Week in Grain- 12/8 PM Wrap (12/8/2016) - Good afternoon friends Corn (H17) 354’2 -3’6 Soybeans (F17) 1025’4 -3’6 Chi Wheat (H17) 408’6 +7’6 KC Wheat (H17) 405’0 +5’0 Cotton (H17) 71.44 +.39 Position squaring was the name of the game today as the markets that have performed over recent weeks saw weakness, while the dregs of the commodity space, wheat,… Read more.
This Week in Grain- 12/5 PM Wrap (12/5/2016) - Good afternoon friends Corn (H17) 358’2 +11’6 Soybeans (F17) 1053’0 +15’6 Chi Wheat (H17) 408’0 +3’6 KC Wheat (H17) 408’6 unch Cotton (H17) 71.08 +.04 Quick note before I get into it, I will be out of the office tomorrow through Thursday morning at the Kevin Van Trump Annual Grain Conference. If you are in… Read more.
This Week in Grain-12/5 Weekly preview (12/5/2016) - Good morning friends Corn (H17) 348’0 +’6 Soybeans (F17) 1040’6 +13’4 Chi Wheat (H17) 406’2 +2’0 KC Wheat (H17) 433’4 +1’0 Cotton (H17) 71.35 +.31 The story today is already developing for my friends over in Europe. I don’t pretend to be an expert on Italian politics but the PM of Italy has… Read more.
This Week in Grain-12/2 Weekly Wrap (12/2/2016) - Good afternoon friends Corn (H17) 347’2 +4’6 Soybeans (F17) 1027’4 -2’2 Chi Wheat (H17) 404’2 +8’2 KC Wheat (H17) 408’6 +5’6 Cotton (H17) 71.04 +.14 GREEN day at the CBOT for corn and wheat after a tough week of trading for the feed grain markets. Beans closed just around unchanged. If the pattern from early… Read more.
This Week in Grain-12/1 Welcome to December (12/1/2016) - Good morning friends! Corn (H17) 343’2 -5’2 Soybeans (F17) 1029’6 -2’4 Chi Wheat (H17) 395’4 -7’2 KC Wheat (H17) 402’4 -7’6 Cotton (H17) 70.83 -.75 Market action was TOUGH again for corn and wheat bulls. The rally we saw the day after first notice day in September didn’t happen. It was bloody across the board in the grain… Read more.
This Week in Grain-12/1 Welcome to December (12/1/2016) - Good morning friends! Corn (H17) 349’0 +’4 Soybeans (F17) 1036’0 +3’2 Chi Wheat (H17) 404’0 +1’2 KC Wheat (H17) 411’0 +1’0 Cotton (H17) 71.25 -.33 Check out the audio comments for commentary this morning. Ill be back in the afternoon with more written words, if that is your speed. Here’s to… Read more.
This Week in Grain- 11/29 PM Wrap (11/29/2016) - Good afternoon friends! Corn 335’6 -12’6 Soybeans 1043’4 -12’4 Chi Wheat 383’4 -6’0 KC Wheat 398’0 -13’4 Cotton (H17) 71.17 -.85 Markets were lower today across the board. Red almost everywhere except the equities markets. It’s basically the exactly same price action as we saw at the end of August. I… Read more.
This Week in Grain- Morning Update 11/29 (11/29/2016) - Good morning friends! Corn 345’6 -2’6 Soybeans 1041’4 -14’4 Chi Wheat 385’2 -4’2 KC Wheat 405’2 -6’2 Cotton (H17) 71.19 -.83 Markets are lower across the board at the CBOT and ICE cotton markets as news flow is lacking bullish news. Crude oil is leading the way ahead of an OPEC meeting that has the… Read more.
This Week in Grain- Market wrap 11/28 (11/28/2016) - Good afternoon friends! Corn 348’6 -‘4 Soybeans 1055’6 +9’6 Chi Wheat 389’0 -6’6 KC Wheat 411’6 UNCH Cotton (H17) 72.54 +.64 Before I get into the commentary, check me out on the US Farm report this week. I have to be honest, the tie is on fire. Thanks to my man Jim Burket for… Read more.
This Week in Grain- 11/28 – 12/2 (11/28/2016) - Good morning friends! Corn 349’0 -‘2 Soybeans 1054’2 +8’2 Chi Wheat 391’6 -4’6 KC Wheat 409’6 -1’4 Cotton (H17) 71.42 +.17 The holiday shortened week from last week is behind us and we start the first week of the last quarter of 2016 with a lot of fanfare when it comes to the… Read more.
This Week in Grain- 11/22 am Update (11/22/2016) - Good morning friends! Corn 348 -1’6 Soybeans 1018’6 -1’4 Chi Wheat 407’2 -3’0 KC Wheat 413’0 -1’4 Cotton (H17) 71.72 -.57 CBOT markets saw further upside price action that had January soybeans testing their October highs near 10.31 before falling apart and trading negative this morning on profit taking in Europe. December corn… Read more.
This Week in Grain- 11/21 PM Wrap (11/21/2016) - Good afternoon friends! Corn 349’6 +4’2 Soybeans 1020’2 +26’4 Chi Wheat 410’2 +2’2 KC Wheat 414’4 +’6 Cotton (H17) 72.29 -.03 Soybeans took the lead in today’s start to the holiday shortened weak closing up more than 2% as commodities are catching some wind in the proverbial sail. Corn and wheat came… Read more.
This Week in Grain 11/18 AM Update (11/18/2016) - Good morning friends! Corn 343’0 +1’0 Soybeans 988’2 -1’2 Chi Wheat 401’4 -1’4 KC Wheat 407’6 -1’0 Cotton (H17) 72.36 -.18 The US Dollar index is trading at decade and a half highs with the Euro leading the way down. 6E broke below 105 this morning as the perception that the Euro… Read more.
This Week in Grain 11/17 AM Update (11/17/2016) - Good morning friends! Corn 340’0 +1’4 Soybeans 990’4 +4’6 Chi Wheat 399’6 +2’6 KC Wheat 405’0 +1’4 Cotton (H17) 70.32 -1.38 Markets are all slightly higher in the overnight, except for cotton which is getting pounded after a disappointing export number. It feels like the market is starting to settle in from the election… Read more.
This Week in Grain 11/16 AM Update (11/16/2016) - Good morning friends! Corn 342’4 +1’0 Soybeans 994’0 +4’4 Chi Wheat 399’4 KC Wheat 407’4 -‘4 Cotton 70.75 +.27 (March) CBOT markets were quiet in the overnight amidst another push above the 100.00 price point on the dollar index. Crude oil has backed off as treasury yields rise. For today at least,… Read more.
This Week in Grain 11/15 PM Wrap (11/15/2016) - Good afternoon friends! Corn 341’4 +4’2 Soybeans 989’4 +5’2 Chi Wheat 399’0 +5’0 KC Wheat 405’4 +2’6 Cotton 70.69 +1.79 CBOT markets were slow today, little news flow kept things tight. I suspect it could be this way for a while. KC-Chi wheat spreads contracted which probably meant short covering. I… Read more.
This Week in Grain 11/15 AM Update (11/15/2016) - Good morning friends! Corn 338’6 +1’4 Soybeans 984’4 +’2 Chi Wheat 397’0 +3’0 KC Wheat 405’4 +2’6 Cotton 70.20 +1.41 December cotton futures took off this morning as we head into delivery. December cotton futures are now above 71 cents followed by March trading above 70.25. The key uptrend line that has… Read more.
This Week in Grain 11/14 PM Wrap (11/14/2016) - Good afternoon friends! Corn 337’2 -3’0 Soybeans 984’2 -1’6 Chi Wheat 394’0 -9’0 KC Wheat 402’6 -7’4 Cotton 68.90 +.46 Feed grain markets were on the run today as “high supply” doesn’t appear to be meshing well with “higher interest rates”. That is probably a lazy correlation but one has… Read more.
This Week in Grain- 11/14 – 11/18 (11/14/2016) - Good morning friends! Corn 337’6 -2’4 Soybeans 979’4 -6’6 Chi Wheat 399’0 -4’0 KC Wheat 406’6 -3’4 Cotton 68.15 -.29 COT reports will be released today, I will have an update on those in the PM wrap. This week will be macro headline driven for the grains, with the biggest short term… Read more.
This Week in Grain- 11/10 AM Update (11/10/2016) - Good morning friends! Corn 343’4 +2’6 Soybeans 1015’4 +17’2 Chi Wheat 410’6 +4’0 KC Wheat 413’4 +3’2 Cotton 69.02 +.73 Commodities are up across the board, trading with a post election euphoria that many we’re not expecting. The Hillary folks have to be shocked that stocks are trading at all time highs after… Read more.
This Week in Grain- 11/9 WASDE Wrap (11/9/2016) - Good afternoon friends! Corn 340’6 -13’4 Soybeans 991’0 -20’2 Chi Wheat 406’6 -8’4 KC Wheat 410’2 -7’2 Cotton 68.29 -.46 WASDE was released this afternoon amidst a rally in the commodity markets (have you seen copper?) and was taken as bearish by the trade in corn, beans and cotton. Wheat did not have much new… Read more.
This Week in Grain- 11/9 AM Update (11/9/2016) - Good morning friends! Corn 351’2 -3’0 Soybeans 1007’6 -3’4 Chi Wheat 411’6 -3’4 KC Wheat 413’2 -4’2 Cotton 68.48 -.27 Grain markets were relatively quiet compared to the massive moves being seen in the bond and equity markets. The markets knew the result of this thing at 8 pm central last… Read more.
This Week in Grain- 11/8 PM Update (11/8/2016) - Good afternoon friends! Corn 354’2’4 +8’0 Soybeans 1011’2 +12’6 Chi Wheat 415’2 +5’2 KC Wheat 417’4 7’4 Cotton 68.75 +.44 Big day of fund buying here at the CBOT as shorts look to cover ahead of what many feel could be the most volatile 24 hours in some time. November soybeans made another… Read more.
This Week in Grain- 11/8 AM Update (11/8/2016) - Good morning friends! Corn 347’2 +1’0 Soybeans 1008’0 +8’4 Chi Wheat 410’6 +’6 KC Wheat 411’2 +1’2 Cotton 68.57 +.12 It’s election day in the US. By tonight, we should know who the next president will be but I would be ready for contention and chaos as that has been the theme… Read more.
This Week in Grain- 11/7 Weekly Preview (11/7/2016) - Good morning friends! Corn 348’2 -‘6 Soybeans 999’2 +8’4 Chi Wheat 415’0 +’6 KC Wheat 412’4 +1’0 Cotton 69.33 +.80 Welcome to the BIG WEEK. To say its a big week is an understatement. Normally a week would be considered big by my standards if we get one major market moving report, this week… Read more.
This Week in Grain- 11/4 Weekly Wrap (11/4/2016) - Good evening friends! Corn 348’6 + ‘6 Soybeans 990’6 +1’2 Chi Wheat 414’2 +2’2 KC Wheat 411’4 +1’0 Cotton 68.53 +46 It was a really slow day in everything, with little price action in any of the CBOT markets. Cotton traded with a little more range, scratching back to yesterday’s high. Next… Read more.
This Week in Grain- 11/4 Weekly Wrap (11/4/2016) - Good evening friends! Corn 348’6 + ‘6 Soybeans 990’6 +1’2 Chi Wheat 414’2 +2’2 KC Wheat 411’4 +1’0 Cotton 68.53 +46
This Week in Grain- Flying the W (11/3/2016) - Good morning friends Corn 347’2 +1’4 Soybeans 989’6 +’4 Chi Wheat 415’6 -2’0 KC Wheat 414’2 -1’2 Cotton 69.05 +.46 My apologies for the brevity of the report today. Other than the birth of my two children, I have never been this emotionally drained. My like Aroldis Chapman, I’m running on fumes. There… Read more.
This Week in Grain- 11/2 AM Update (11/2/2016) - Good morning friends! Corn 349’6 +’6 Soybeans 993’6 +’4 Chi Wheat 415’0 +1’4 KC Wheat 415’6 +1’2 Cotton 68.60 +.40 Overnight rice action was really slow amidst more selling in the crude oil markets. December CL made a new low for the move in the overnight breaking 46 dollars. The FOMC announcement… Read more.
This Week in Grain- 11/1 PM Wrap (11/1/2016) - Good afternoon friends! Corn 349’0 -5’6 Soybeans 993’2 -18’4 Chi Wheat 414’2 -2’0 KC Wheat 413’6 -1’0, Cotton 68.20 -.96 Markets are down sharply across the board, led by a weak crude oil complex. The price action we have seen since Friday has held, which makes me wonder if this is the… Read more.
This Week in Grain- 11/1 AM Update (11/1/2016) - Good morning friends! Corn 352’4 -2’2 Soybeans 1010’2 -1’4 Chi Wheat 413’6 -2’4 KC Wheat 413’6 -2’4, Cotton 68.61 -.25 Grain markets are following the crude markets lower we see continued selling in that market. Crude oil is off almost 6% in the last 3 sessions. Little has changed in overseas… Read more.
This Week in Grain- 10/31 PM Wrap (10/31/2016) - Good evening friends! Corn 354’4 -‘4 , +18’0 for the month of October Soybeans 1013’2 -1’0, +52’4 Chi Wheat 415’2 +6’6, +14’4 KC Wheat 414’6 +3’4, +’6 Cotton 68.85 -1.97, + .75 Pretty slow day with the big “move” coming right on the open of the morning session as beans (X17)… Read more.
This Week in Grain- 10/31 to 11/4 (10/31/2016) - Good morning friends! Corn 353’0 -2’0 Soybeans 1010’2 -1’6 Chi Wheat 410’0 +1’4 KC Wheat 412’4 +1’2 Cotton 70.60 -.22 Grain markets opened the last trading day of October mixed, with corn and cotton slightly lower while beans and wheat are slightly higher on very low volume. As I mentioned on Friday, the… Read more.
This Week in Grain-Weekly Wrap 10/28 (10/28/2016) - Good afternoon friends! Corn 355’0 -2’4 Soybeans 1012’0 -13’0 Chi Wheat 413’4 -1’0 KC Wheat 415’6 -1’4 Cotton 70.89 +1.13 It’s end of the week…. on a side note I want to mention that I live about a mile NW of Wrigley Field, so if I don’t make it in on Monday it’s because… Read more.
This Week in Grain-10/28 AM Update (10/28/2016) - Good morning friends! Corn 356’2 -1’2 Soybeans 1024’6 -‘6 Chi Wheat 413’4 -1’0 KC Wheat 415’6 -1’4 Cotton 69.57 -.19 Overnight session was boring with little change in price action other than a reversal in bean oil/meal price action from yesterday. Malaysian palm oil was up slightly and China’s Dalian futures barely weaker. The US dollar… Read more.
This Week in Grain-10/27 PM Wrap (10/27/2016) - Good afternoon friends! Corn 356’2 +3’0 Soybeans 1023’2 +2’4 Chi Wheat 415’2 +3’6 KC Wheat 418’4 +’1’4 Cotton 69.34 +.08 Markets traded in a tight range after making a push early in the session. The rally in beans has changed dynamics somewhat in recent days, which has me wondering if a trend change… Read more.
This Week in Grain-10/27 AM Update (10/27/2016) - Good afternoon friends! Corn 356’2 +3’0 Soybeans 1023’2 +2’4 Chi Wheat 415’2 +3’6 KC Wheat 418’4 +’1’4 Cotton 69.34 +.08 I take off one day and the markets go bonkers to the upside! My apologies for the lack of TWIG reports, my kid needed an emergency babysitter and he has no concern about… Read more.
This Week in Grain-10/25 PM Wrap (10/25/2016) - Good afternoon friends! Corn 349’6 +1’4 Soybeans 1001’2 -2’2 Chi Wheat 404’0 +1’4 KC Wheat 412’4 +’4 Cotton 68.49 -.28 It was a pretty boring session, especially in corn and wheat. It was announced China bought another 516,000 MT of soybeans. Asian demand for soybeans is insatiable. In… Read more.
This Week in Grain-10/25 AM Update (10/25/2016) - Good morning friends! Corn 349’2 +1’0 Soybeans 1000’0 -2’2 Chi Wheat 402’6 +’2 KC Wheat 412’2 +’2 Cotton 69.03 +.26 A very slow overnight trade gives way to very little today in the way of news flow or data that can change the story of the recent negativity… Read more.
This Week in Grain-10/24 PM Wrap (10/24/2016) - Good afternoon friends! Corn 348’4 -4’0 Soybeans 1002’2 +10’0 Chi Wheat 403’4 -11’2 KC Wheat 413’4 -8’0 Cotton 68.66 -.22 **Crop progress reports were just released, I go over them in the audio podcast. Listen below or on your phone. Soybean markets are on the move as Nov tests… Read more.
TWIG-10/21 Cattle on Feed and Commitment of Traders Review (10/21/2016) - Happy Friday friends! Check out the podcast/audio at the bottom. I review the COT reports there. Here are the results for the week: January soybeans will take over the top step on Monday. Cattle on feed came in: On Feed 101% Placements 98% Marketings 105%. This is what the bulls want to see. A bottom… Read more.
This Week in Grain-10/24 AM Update (10/21/2016) - Good morning friends! Corn 351’6 -‘6 Soybeans 995’0 +12’4 Chi Wheat 413’6 -1’0 KC Wheat 422’4 +1’0 Cotton 68.82 -.23 The schedule this week is light on grain specific data other than the normal weekly reports. On the Macro side, we get another Mario Draghi speech on Tuesday, and… Read more.
This Week in Grain-10/20 PM Wrap (10/20/2016) - Good evening friends! Corn 350’6 -6’6 Soybeans 976’0 -5’2 Chi Wheat 415’6 -4’4 KC Wheat 422’2 -3’0 Cotton 69.80 -1.30 Buy the rumor sell the fact was the theme of the day across the the CBOT and Cotton markets as prices retreated after fantastic export data was announced this morning. The… Read more.
This Week in Grain-10/20 AM Wrap (10/20/2016) - Good morning friends! Corn 358’2 +’2 Soybeans 985’0 +3’4 Chi Wheat 420’4 +’4 KC Wheat 427’0 +1’6 Cotton 71.49 +.39 USDA released exports a few minutes ago: Bean export sales of 2,008,500 MMT for 2016-17 came in well above expectations, this was a huge week. Wheat export sales of… Read more.
This Week in Grain-10/19 PM Wrap (10/19/2016) - Good evening friends! Corn 358’0 +4’2 Soybeans 982’2 +9’6 Chi Wheat 421’0 +1’0 KC Wheat 426’0 +4’2 Cotton 71.14 -.01 Corn and wheat find support on the breaks while cotton and soybeans jump higher with the crude oil market. The mitigated disaster that is the US livestock market has some hand… Read more.
This Week in Grain-10/19 AM Update (10/19/2016) - Good morning friends! Corn 351’4 -1’4 Soybeans 973’4 -2’4 Chi Wheat 417’4 -2’4 KC Wheat 421’0 -‘6 Cotton 70.27 -.88 Sorry for the lack of a report yesterday afternoon, I was in South Bend with the Ag Day people dropping some knowledge. Thanks to Tyne and the crew for… Read more.
This Week in Grain-10/18 AM Update (10/18/2016) - Good morning friends! Corn 353’0 -1’0 Soybeans 975’6 -2’4 Chi Wheat 419’6 -4’0 KC Wheat 420’6 -2’2 Cotton 70.99 -.20 Markets were quiet and slightly higher until I sat in my chair here at 100 S Wacker. At about 7 am we saw markets dip slightly as wheat falls… Read more.
This Week in Grain-10/17 PM Wrap (10/17/2016) - Good evening friends! Corn 354’4 +’2 Soybeans 978’6 +16’2 Chi Wheat 423’2 +2’2 KC Wheat 420’6 +2’2 Cotton 69.99 -.58 The market was awaiting the harvest report from the USDA, especially in cotton as #2 rallied into the close. Last week NC cotton was at 44% GE, this week… Read more.
This Week in Grain -Weekly Preview 10/17-10-21 (10/17/2016) - Good morning friends! Corn 356’2 +2’2 Soybeans 971’4 +9’2 Chi Wheat 423’2 +2’2 KC Wheat 419’6 +2’0 Cotton 69.99 -.58 Markets open the week in a positive mood after last weeks upside reversal in favor of the bulls. Other than today’s NOPA Crush report, this week will be outside… Read more.
This Week in Grain -Weekly Wrap (10/14/2016) - Good afternoon friends! Here is your weekly snapshot at grain performance for the day, week and month. Follow-thru Friday is the theme of the day as prices in corn and wheat followed thru after yesterday’s reversal, making everyone who sold corn after July 18th now underwater on trades in December corn (assuming they are still short)… Read more.
This Week in Grain -10/14 AM Update (10/14/2016) - Good morning friends! Corn 353’2 +3’6 Soybeans 960’0 +4’2 Chi Wheat 421’6 +5’6 KC Wheat 419’4 +5′ Cotton 69.59 +.27 Powerful upside price action in the feed markets continued in the overnight as corn and wheat made another push, December corn finally popping its head above 350 in the December contract. November soybeans are… Read more.
This Week in Grain -10/13 PM Wrap (10/13/2016) - Good afternoon friends! Corn 349’6 +12’6 Soybeans 955’0 +9’4 Chi Wheat 417’0 +20’2 KC Wheat 414’6 +16’2 Cotton 69.30 +.33 Price action today was bullish across the board, led by the short covering in Chicago wheat. Check out the audio for more.
This Week in Grain -10/13 Morning Update (10/13/2016) - Good morning friends! Corn 338’2 (+1’2) Soybeans 946’0 (+’2) Chi Wheat 401’6 (+5’0) KC Wheat 402’4 (+4’0) Cotton 68.69 (+-.30) Good morning friends! Overnight price action was quiet all night, until a few minutes ago when the wheat markets poked their heads back above 400 in December contracts. Exports are delayed until tomorrow because of Monday’s holiday.… Read more.
This Week in Grain -10/12 WASDE Wrap (10/12/2016) - Good evening friends! Corn 337’2 (-8’2) Soybeans 946’0 (-8’2) Chi Wheat 396’2 (-11’0) KC Wheat 397’2 (-9’0) Cotton 68.90 (+1.54) October WASDE is in the books, the three major row crops all took it on the chin while cotton jumped away from 67 cents on a production miss. I didn’t find the report overly bearish in… Read more.
This Week in Grain -10/11 PM Wrap (10/11/2016) - Good morning friends! Corn 345’2 (+2’2) Soybeans 953’4 (-1’0) Chi Wheat 407’0 (+3’2) KC Wheat 405’0 (+3’2) Cotton 67.15 (-.21) Reminder, the USDA will release updated supply and demand data tomorrow at 11 am. USDA released harvest reports this afternoon: Corn: 35% harvested, conditions unchanged. The market could rally on this data. I was hearing expectations above 40%.… Read more.
This Week in Grain -10/11 AM Update (10/11/2016) - Good morning friends! Corn 342’0 (-1’2) Soybeans 955’2 (+’6) Chi Wheat 402’4 (-1’4) KC Wheat 404’6 (-2’2) Cotton 67.73 (+.37) Markets are quiet and should remain quiet up until the WASDE announcement at 11 am. As I’ve said before, this report should affect the soy complex more than the corn or wheat, unless we get a… Read more.
This Week in Grain -10/10 PM Wrap (10/10/2016) - Good afternoon friends! Corn 343’0 (+3’2) Soybeans 953’6 (-3’0) Chi Wheat 404’4 (+9’6) KC Wheat 408’2 (+5’0) Cotton 67.35 (+.37) Wheat futures led the charge this morning as short covering could be seen as wheat set the pace on everything at CBOT. As I mentioned friday, the CBOT wheat market stands at a record… Read more.
This Week in Grain -10/10 AM Update (10/10/2016) - Good morning friends! Corn 340’4 (+’6) Soybeans 952’4 (-4’2) Chi Wheat 398’4 (+3’6) KC Wheat 405’2 (+2’2) Cotton 67.84 (+1.15) MARKETS ARE OPEN TODAY! HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO OUR CANADIAN FOLLOWERS! Overnight price action and news-flow were rather quiet. The market is preparing for WASDE on Wednesday at 11 am. All US government agencies are closed today, so we… Read more.
This Week in Grain -Weekly Wrap 10/3-10/7 (10/7/2016) - Happy Friday afternoon, friends! Here are the closing prices and the price changes for the week… Corn 339’6 (+3’4) Soybeans 955’6 (+3’2) Chi Wheat 396’4 (-5’2) KC Wheat 407’2 (-11’2) Cotton 66.95 (-1.15) MARKETS ARE OPEN ON MONDAY! Price’s were in a “downer” mood on Friday, bears took back much of the weekly gain from early… Read more.
This Week in Grain 10/07 AM Update (10/7/2016) - Good morning friends! Corn 340’4 (unch) Soybeans 960’4 (+2’0) Chi Wheat 396’4 (+’2) KC Wheat 407’2 (+2’2) Cotton 67.56 (-.06) This week has seen incredibly slow overnight trading ranges, last night was no different. In grains, but British pound traders need to be on the lookout this morning. That market got hammered a few hours… Read more.
This Week in Grain 10/06 PM Wrap (10/6/2016) - Good morning friends! Corn 340’6 (-1’2) Soybeans 959’2 (+2’6) Chi Wheat 396’2 (-8’6) KC Wheat 405’6 (-9’2) Cotton 67.55 (-.40) Wheat, corn and cotton were all weaker this morning as market breakdowns were the theme here in Chicago in the row crop markets, Corn and soybean export sales through last Thursday were tremendous, but I think the… Read more.
This Week in Grain 10/06 AM Update (10/6/2016) - Good morning friends! Corn 346’4 (-1’2) Soybeans 952’4 (-4’4) Chi Wheat 407’2 (+2’2) KC Wheat 416’4 (+1’2) Cotton 67.67 (-.20) **I was having audio problems this morning so there will be no audio this morning. It has been another slow night of trading on the CBOT. The market awaits the USDA weekly export sales this morning and preps for… Read more.
This Week in Grain 10/05 PM Wrap (10/5/2016) - Good morning friends! Corn 347’4 (-‘6) Soybeans 955’6 (-7’6) Chi Wheat 405’4 (+10’0) KC Wheat 415’6 (+12’6) Cotton 67.69 (-1.98) Somebody wake up the band, wheat just had a double digit up day. Holy moly its been a while. The rally is coming from the currency markets as the Russian Ruble surged to 12 month highs, creating some… Read more.
This Week in Grain 10/05 AM Update (10/5/2016) - Good morning friends! Corn 345’6 (-2’4) Soybeans 967’0 (+3’4) Chi Wheat 394’4 (-1’0) KC Wheat 401’6 (-1’2) Cotton 69.34 (-.34) It has been a slow overnight in regards to news a price, corn giving back some of its gains will have bears calling for a top after seeing 35 cents and almost 8% put on in… Read more.
This Week in Grain 10/04 Afternoon Wrap (10/4/2016) - Good afternoon friends! Corn 348’2 (+2’2) Soybeans 962’6 (-10’2) Chi Wheat 394’4 (-1’0) KC Wheat 401’6 (-5’2) Cotton 69.68 (+1.16) Markets made their moves early and traded sideways throughout the session. Corn has gotten a tailwind on the back of smaller than expected yields (on the margins) and a liquidation of wheat vs corn and soybean… Read more.
This Week in Grain 10/04 AM Update (10/4/2016) - Good morning friends! Corn 346’0 (unch) Soybeans 966’4 (-6’4) Chi Wheat 394’0 (-1’4) KC Wheat 404’2 (-2’0) Cotton 6877 (+.25) Crop progress numbers from yesterday were solid, coming in just under averages for corn and above average for cotton and soybeans. Conditions were left unchanged in corn and raised a percentage point in soybeans… Read more.
This Week in Grain – PM review 10/3 (10/3/2016) - Good afternoon friends! It was a green day for the 1st day of the quarter in corn, beans and cotton, while the whipping post of the commodity markets (wheat) took it on the chin again. Corn 346’0 (+9’2) Soybeans 974’4 (+20’4) KCW 405’6 (-9’6) CHI W 395’2 (-6’6) Cotton 68.42 (+.34) Corn inspections… Read more.
This Week in Grain 10/3- AM Update (10/3/2016) - Good morning friends! Corn 336’6 (unch) Beans 955’4 (+1’0) Chi Wheat 400’0 (-2’0) KC Wheat 413’0 (-2’4) Cotton 67.55 -.53 Overnight price action was slow and volume was low as the trade had little to adjust after the USDA grain stocks report on Friday. The report was a yawner, but I think did have… Read more.
This Week in Grain- AM report 9/30 (9/30/2016) - Good morning friends! In today’s rundown I discuss the USDA report coming out at 11 am today, Chinese crush margins, the hog report out after the close and weather. Below are trade expectations, I hope today is a profitable one for you.
This Week in Grain 9/29 PM Wrap (9/29/2016) - Dec Corn- 329’2 (unch) Nov Soybeans- 950’6 (+5’2) Dec Chicago Wheat- 399’4 (-3’6) Dec KC Wheat- 417’2 (-4) Dec Cotton- 67.58 (-.90) Hello friends! Slow day in the grain markets marked by middle of the road volume as folks position ahead of the stocks numbers tomorrow. Just a reminder this is a report on how… Read more.
This Week in Grain 9/29 – AM Update (9/29/2016) - Good morning friends! Sorry for the slight delay in getting the pod out this morning, I plan on waiting until 7:30 on Thursdays so I can give you an update on export sales. Besides, there isn’t much else to talk about regarding the US markets. The wheat and corn markets look like they are trading… Read more.
This Week in Grain- 9/28 Afternoon Update (9/28/2016) - Good afternoon friends, Dec Corn – 329’0 (-2’6) Nov Beans – 946’0 (-6’4) Dec KC Wheat – 420’6 (+1’4) Dec Chi Wheat – 402’6 (-1’4) Dec Cotton – 68.68 (-1.06) Nov WTI – 46.40 (+1.72 as of 1:18 pm) Grains were boring as ever today, with corn, wheat and soybeans trading near opening ranges. Corn, beans… Read more.
This Week in Grain- 9/28 Morning Update (9/28/2016) - Good morning friends The markets were slow in the overnight, as corn, soybeans and wheat are all giving back a small amount of gains from yesterday’s close. In today’s morning update we discuss: – Cotton is correcting after China talks more state auctions next year – Putin joins the rest of the wheat world… Read more.
This Week in Grain- 9/27 Afternoon Update (9/27/2016) - Good afternoon friends! Grain markets turned around mid day as shorts bailed out as more wheat tenders from the middle east leaked out. Morocco announced a 2nd tender for 300,000 metric tons of US SR wheat, which caused a correction in the spread with KC. A week ago, Morocco secured 235,000 metric tons, which brings the monthly tender totals… Read more.
AM TWIG-cast 9/27 (9/27/2016) - Hello friends, Over night price action was dominated by action in the crude oil markets thanks to the OPEC meeting that is taking place this week. So far headlines have been bearish with no production cuts being seen before the meeting ends. The overnight CBOT trade has been slightly higher following Monday’s decline. The harvest… Read more.
TWIG-cast 9/26 PM edition (9/26/2016) - Good afternoon friends! Welcome to the afternoon TWIG-cast to hear how the markets traded today. Please subscribe, its free for anyone and everyone! I will publish this in the morning during the ag market break at 7:30 central and then again after the close. If you subscribe through the Itunes or Google Play store, all… Read more.
This Week in Grain – 9/23 Morning Update (9/23/2016) - Good morning friends! Latest morning audio is available below. What I’m talking about: China rejects US DDG shipments Egypt wheat tender’s filled by Russia at $187 MT for 12.5 pro. US 12.5 pro is offered well above right now FOB near $230 Heavy rains hit the Northern Corn belt Texas cotton forecast changes
This Week in Grain – 9/22 Morning Update (9/22/2016) - Good morning friends! Latest morning audio is available below.
This Week in Grain – 9/21 Morning Update (9/21/2016) - Good morning friends! Latest morning audio is available below.
This Week in Grain – 9/20 Morning Update (9/20/2016) - Good morning friends! Latest morning audio is available below.
This Week in Grain – 9/19 Morning Update (9/19/2016) - The schedule for this week is somewhat slower in grains, relative to week’s past.
This Week in Grain – 9/16 Weekly Wrap (9/16/2016) - The week was slightly negative for all of the row crops, as all the markets I follow with the exception of wheat was negative for the week.
TWIG Morning Minute – 9/13 WASDE Recap (9/13/2016) - September USDA WASDE came and went without major issue in corn and wheat. We got a little less uncertainty thanks to yield hikes in beans and cotton, which sent those markets reeling.
This Week in Grain – 9/12 (9/12/2016) - WASDE will be released in a few hours and the markets are taking away some of the premium put in last week as traders put on protection plays ahead of a busy 3 weeks in the grain markets.
TWIG Morning Minute – 9/08 (9/8/2016) - Corn and wheat are slightly higher in overnight trading this Thursday morning, while soybeans continue their positive week/month with another push toward 10.00.
This Week in Grain – 8/29 (8/29/2016) - Welcome to the last week in August/ first week in September. If you hold your ear to the ground you should be able to hear the combines beginning to roll across the south.
TWIG Morning Minute – 8/18 (8/18/2016) - Corn markets were up slightly in the overnight as the “melt up” mode continues.
TWIG Morning Minute – 8/16 (8/16/2016) - Bearish markets don’t usually move up on bearish data. That’s the price action we have seen post Friday’s USDA report in corn and soybeans.
TWIG Note 8/12 – WASDE Friday (8/12/2016) - This is a sample entry from John Payne’s newsletter, This Week in Grain, published on Friday August 12, 2016. Good morning friends It’s a WASDE Friday, which means I need to tell my wife my Sunday evening is ruined as I will be monitoring risk. There always seems to be wacky price action with only… Read more.
This Week in Grain 8/8-8/12 (8/8/2016) - I feel the markets are in a bottoming process right now but tests of major support in corn and soybeans shouldn’t surprise ahead of WASDE this week.
TWIG Morning Minute – 7/26 (7/26/2016) - Grain and oilseed markets trade on both side of unchanged after another unchanged/stellar crop progress report for corn and beans, but are weaker into the AM session for wheat.
TWIG Morning Minute – 7/22 (7/22/2016) - Markets are softer in the overnight as the corn market makes a run toward the near term lows bear 318 (front month) and the 200 day MA in soybeans at 980. 6 trading sessions ago, soybeans were trading with an 11 handle.
This Week in Grain – 07/18 (7/18/2016) - In my opinion, the hardest thing about trading a weather market is trying to figure out what is priced in and what isn't.
This Week in Grain 7/11-7/15 (7/11/2016) - Welcome to mid-July and the start of the doldrums of the grain trading season. The market is always involved in some sort of distraction from the minutia of what really matters
TWIG Morning Minute – 7/8 (7/8/2016) - Markets are back up into yesterday’s AM trading range off the lows. The speculator is still in liquidation mode pretty much across the board.
TWIG Morning Minute – 7/7: CONAB drops corn production for Brazil (7/7/2016) - Conab (Brazil bean counters) came out this morning and dropped bit of a bomb shell on the market.
This Week in Grain – 7/05 (7/5/2016) - For this week, I’ll be very interested to see how the near record short position in wheat and longer than expected position in corn treat the spreads between the two crops.
TWIG Morning Minute – 7/1 Stocks/Acreage Recap (7/1/2016) - USDA report was released at 11 am. There are a lot of headlines but in the end I don’t think a lot changed.
TWIG Note 6/20 – Crop Progress (6/21/2016) - Crop progress reports were released a few minutes ago to some fanfare but little change.
TWIG Morning Minute – 6/15 (6/15/2016) - Today we will hear from FOMC chair Janet Yellen, continue weather observations and get a snapshot of June soybean crush from NOPA. All of this goes on as December corn tests highs from last summer and soybeans chop just below their highs (sorry wheat L).
TWIG Morning Minute – 6/8 (6/8/2016) - Half way through the week, half way to the WASDE report. Who here is excited for a volatile 2 hour Friday trade followed by a weekend waiting for a gap open on Sunday night? I for one can’t wait.
TWIG Morning Minute – 6/3 (6/3/2016) - It's blowout time again for the soybean markets as the breakout above recent highs in both soybeans and soybean meal yesterday was head turning for a everyone across the trading spectrum.
This Week in Grain 5/31-6/03 (5/31/2016) - It is considered a holiday week so everything gets pushed back one day.
This Week In Grain – Corn Talking Points for a Memorial Day Picnic (5/27/2016) - This is a sample entry from John Payne’s newsletter, This Week in Grain, published on Friday May 27, 2016. Hello friends A Memorial Day picnic will bring about many a conversation about corn prices as folks chow down on burgers, brats and a few special beverages. These arguments can be very boring if you are… Read more.
This Week In Grain 5/27/2016 (5/27/2016) - This is a sample entry from John Payne’s newsletter, This Week in Grain, published on Friday May 27, 2016. Hello friends! Here is a trade rec for you to chew on into the 3 day weekend! December 16 Corn vs December 17 Corn This is a trade idea for a producers or speculators alike. December… Read more.
TWIG Morning Minute – 5/26 (5/26/2016) - Upside price action in all 3 row crops and derivative feed markets is being seen.
TWIG Morning Minute – 5/25 (5/25/2016) - Markets were positive in the overnight with July corn making another run at 4.00 and the July soybean contract making yet another push toward 10.80.
This Week In Grain 5/23-5/27 (5/23/2016) - This week will be a wind down week into Memorial Day weekend. Reminder, US market hours will be adjusted next Monday. Today we get livestock cold storage numbers combined with crop progress numbers. Other than the normal reports, it should be a quiet week from the macro standpoint.
TWIG Morning Minute – 5/19 (5/19/2016) - Overnight grain markets have been in profit taking mode in the overnight session with higher dollar price action driving the trade after a somewhat hawkish Fed minute release.
This Week in Grain 5/16-5/20 (5/16/2016) - Another week of grain trading is upon us as farmers continue to shiver across much of the US growing region.
This Week in Grain – 5/9-5/13 (5/9/2016) - Tomorrow’s WASDE could be really wild, for soybeans especially.
TWIG Morning Minute – 5/06 (5/6/2016) - Thursday night/Friday morning markets were quiet as we broke the session with beans up 3, corn up 1 and wheat flat.
TWIG Morning Minute – 4/22 (4/22/2016) - This Week in Grain is going into its 5th year of production here at Daniels Trading. While in the past, producer John Payne’s goal has been to keep his readers in the loop on a weekly basis, he is now giving his readers insights on a daily basis. If you are looking for a quick morning recap on what happened in the grain and livestock markets yesterday and into the overnight, check out the morning minute.
This Week in Grain – Dec 8 (12/8/2015) - For corn, the carryout is about the same as last year with stocks to use a little tighter, right above 12% where it was around 15% at times last year.
TWIG Note – Seasonal Sell in Corn Starts Next Week (8/28/2015) - Nothing about the commodity markets of late have been seasonal. The selling we have seen in crude oil, the stock market, the dollar, heck- even soybeans, has not been seasonal.
TWIG Note – WASDE Recap (8/13/2015) - August 12th 2015, the USDA put what could be a final dagger in the soybean bull market of 2006-2015. It was a fun ride, one that many folks in this country benefited from.
TWIG Note – China Devalues (8/11/2015) - The market was handed a bit of a wild card early this morning, it will be really interesting to see how this affects the market for food.
TWIG Note – Triple Top in USD? (8/5/2015) - A smart guy I know says triple tops never hold. It looks like we have a test case in the US dollar index.
TWIG Note – Tuesday Trade Update and New Recommendation (7/21/2015) - Happy Tuesday! I have a new trade idea in corn!
This Week in Grain – July 13-17 (7/13/2015) - Before I get into the week ahead, crop progress was just released. Just looking at it on the margins, the crop is pretty darned good from a national perspective.
This Week in Grain – June 22-26 (6/23/2015) - One week before one of the bigger weeks in the markets as far as new data goes. Set your clocks for next Tuesday at 11 am, we will get fundamental data that can make or break the trend for the next few months.
This Week in Grain – June 08-June/12 (6/9/2015) - Second week of grain trading in June is upon us. Can you feel that? Yeah, this is what a weather rally feels like.
This Week in Grain – May 26-May 31 (5/27/2015) - It was an ugly start to trading this week at the CME with corn, beans and wheat turning the three day weekend into a Tuesday downer for the bulls.
TWIG Note – Crop Progress and Wheat news (5/6/2015) - Crop progress was just released as it will be every week at 3 pm central, Monday afternoon. The focus on the reports now and into the next few weeks will be corn plantings / emergence pace, bean planting pace and the condition of the wheat crop.
TWIG Note – Ag Forum Acreage for Corn and Beans (2/19/2015) - The 2015 USDA Ag forum is underway! The secretary of Agriculture released the acreage data in a presentation this morning.
TWIG Note – WASDE Results and More (12/10/2014) - The USDA released its latest WASDE report this morning, the last report for the year.
This Week in Grain – Monthly October Wrap (10/31/2014) - This is your weekly wrap for the Week of October 27th through the 31st.
TWIG Note – The Anatomy of a Market Squeeze (10/30/2014) - I hope everyone’s nerves are surviving this bean squeeze. It’s not really just beans, its in corn as well.
This Week in Grain – Weekly Wrap 10/06-10/10 (10/10/2014) - Welcome to the weekly wrap for the week of October 6th through the 10th.
TWIG Note – Ignore the Macro Risk, the Hog Market Will Be Won or Lost on Friday’s Report (9/25/2014) - I am sitting here watching my screen bleed itself to death and the contrarian in me is looking for something to buy..
This Week in Grain – Sept 22-Sept 26 (9/23/2014) - This week will be important to the grain markets on both supply stories and demand stories alike.
TWIG Note – Oats, Corn and Thinking Outside of the Box (9/4/2014) - I looked up at my quotes this morning and noticed that Oats, the poor mans grain market was almost the same price as corn.
TWIG Note – Coming Up On Seasonal Weakness in Corn (8/28/2014) - Throughout this entire growing season, I have heard comparisons to the best growing season on record, 2004.
TWIG Note – Corn, Cotton and Soymeal Fighting Trendlines (8/21/2014) - Here are a few charts that I encourage bean, corn and cotton traders to pay some attention.
This Week in Grain – July 14-July 18 (7/15/2014) - For the first time in a while, we have little in the way of USDA data on both the Livestock and Grain side for this week.
This Week in Grain – WASDE Wrap (7/11/2014) - WASDE was released today at 11 am. Here are the results and my takeaways.
TWIG Weekly Wrap and Grain Stocks/Acreage Report Preview (6/27/2014) - We have arrived at first notice day for all of the July grain contracts. If you are long July futures, you will be open to delivery starting on Monday.
TWIG Note – Getting Ready to Sell into a Corn Bounce (6/24/2014) - Here is a hedge idea for anyone who is undersold corn, plans on selling into a bounce later in the summer, or just likes trading option spreads.
TWIG Note – Corn Contracts Approaching Jan Lows Across the Board (6/18/2014) - Corn prices are approaching January lows. I want everyone to keep their eyes on two contracts. I think these are the keys going forward.
This Week in Grain – Weekly Wrap 5/26-5/30 (5/30/2014) - Grain bears take the month of May in a route, as new crop prices close on their monthly lows. December corn was down 53 cents for the month, July KC wheat was down close to 90 cents in May and July beans were off a modest 15 cents.
This Week in Grain – Crop Progress (5/27/2014) - Welcome back from the 3 day weekend. The markets traded like I felt this morning, emerging from a three day fog of inactivity.
TWIG Entry – Short Butterfly Call Spread (4/29/2014) - Looking for a way to sell some option premium in the soybeans without taking on a massive amount of short term margin risk? Check out the short butterfly call spread.
Welcome to This Week in Grain (4/23/2014) - Learn more about This Week in Grain! John Payne explains what you get as a subscriber to his weekly grain and oilseed commentary newsletter.
TWIG Note – Bull Flags Everwhere in Corn and Soybeans (4/8/2014) - What is a bull pennant? The bullish pennant formation is found within the uptrend of a futures contract.
TWIG Note – Watching Butterflies (4/2/2014) - Sometimes, when I am looking at a market technically, checking out contracts alone can be a bit blinding. The big moves, exaggerated by high frequency trading and speculative froth can be a bit misleading.
This Week in Grain – Ahead of the USDA Reports (3/28/2014) - The week of anticipation is behind us! By Monday, we will have a better impression of what the market will be dealing with as far as supply is concerned for the short term (grain stocks) and the long term (planted acres).
TWIG Note – A New Crop Soybean Idea (2/20/2014) - As we get into the planting season, here is an idea you can use that I think can help cover your hedges or re-own the grain you have already contracted.
This Week in Grain – 2/10-2/14 (WASDE Wrap!) (2/12/2014) - The USDA released their February WASDE report this morning (February 10). The February report is not normally a big market mover and the report followed suit as there were a few surprises, but not enough to get the corn, soybeans or wheat markets above resistance levels or below support levels…yet.
TWIG Note – Hedging the Corn Basis Rally (2/3/2014) - It appears the cash corn trade has come to a standstill over recent weeks as weather and lack of a selling catalyst has spreads and basis tightening. I want to point out the performance of the March contract against the other contracts in the 2014 crop year over recent months.
This Week in Grain – Weekly Wrap 1/13-1/17 (1/17/2014) - This “post WASDE” week was a bit disappointing for those who love big price swings. Soybeans saw some the follow-through price action to the upside but ran into trend resistance near 1330. Late this week it backed off toward 13 but held support. Wheat and corn traded in their post WASDE ranges all week, but got weaker as we went on.
WASDE Recap (12/11/2013) - The grain data came fast and furious all day! It started with Brazil forecasting their production this morning, followed by the USDA giving us their take on everything but old crop supplies (those will come in the JAN report). While the results of today’s report may have not inspired much volatility at 11 am, I did notice a few things that may become trends over what is left of 2013 and the start of 2014.
Welcome to WASDE Week (11/5/2013) - I feel excited to say for the first time in 9 weeks, WELCOME TO WASDE WEEK! The last time we heard from the USDA regarding WASDE data, it was September 12th. Since that day, we have seen prices move dramatically in grains and oilseed markets.
Two Bullish Corn Charts in a Bearish Market (10/30/2013) - As a reader of TWIG, I hope you have come to understand my major objective to inspire ideas so you can hedge or trade these grains markets on your terms. Lately, I have been asked by producers why it would make sense to re-own. Today, I am going to step out of my bear costume and put on my bulls jersey. Maybe I can inspire an idea or two to get you involved.
A Case For Trend Change in 30 year Bonds (10/21/2013) - Many times, changes in trends come from the outcome of the biggest events. The conclusion of the latest calamity out of Washington and the recent appointment of the dovish, Janet Yellen to replace Ben Bernanke may be what the bond market needs to wake up from its recent 6 month slumber.
TWIG Note 10/9 – Brazilian Production Estimates (10/10/2013) - This is a sample entry from John Payne’s newsletter, This Week in Grain, published on Wednesday, October 09, 2013. With the USDA being closed, the market is craving all of the data it can get. Today (10/09) we got a snapshot of the Brazilian Ag situation, thanks to our friends at CONAB (think of them… Read more.
Does Harvest Pressure Affect the Grain Markets? (9/11/2013) - As the calendar turns into fall, the corn and soybean markets will brace for new production to come online. You will begin to hear many analysts talk about “harvest pressure” as the combines begin to roll across the heartland. Being a grain nerd and someone who reads a lot of different opinions, I was interested… Read more.
How to Play One Last “Kick” in Old Crop Soybeans (7/30/2013) - Short crops have long tails, that’s what the old salts tell me. Because of the tremendously short soybean crop from last year, I think the tail has one more wag before the 2012 crop is history. The money flow in Soybeans has been very negative since the “rumor” that China will be using beans from… Read more.
The Bullish Spiral of the Soy Complex (6/20/2013) - There is not enough soymeal in the United States to meet demand. To help meet demand, crushers were planning on turning beans into meal using cheaper South American imports, as there is a lot of product available and the crush margins would be well in the green to support their efforts. But, because of the Brazilian port situation, the beans are not coming as quickly as the crushers wanted. The cheap product they could turn into expensive meal is apparently not in the cards.
This Week in Grain (Week of June 19) (6/19/2013) - This is a sample entry from John Payne’s newsletter, This Week in Grain, published on June 19, 2013. Hello friends, Anyone else notice a pattern? Bulls must not like trading during the first trading week of the month. Corn prices have sold off every month during the last trading day of the month or the… Read more.
Why Sorghum Producers Must Consider Hedging (5/14/2013) - In this article, you will learn what hedging is, why you should be hedging sorghum, and how it’s done. Congratulations, assuming you harvested a crop over the last 5 years, you should have experienced a financial windfall from the price rally in sorghum and the other grain markets. The rallies we have seen in grains… Read more.
Feeder Cattle Sell Off’s for Dummies (3/21/2013) - This is a sample entry from John Payne’s newsletter, This Week in Grain, published on March 20, 2013. The liquidation of the livestock industry continues today, led by deferred feeder cattle contracts. I believe much of this is due to the sequestration of meat inspectors. Here is a short and simplified cause/effect chain for those… Read more.
Is Another ‘WASDE Turn’ Coming? (2/5/2013) - This is a sample entry from John Payne’s newsletter, This Week in Grain, published on February 05, 2013. It’s WASDE week! I look back to the January WASDE and I’m amazed at how quickly market sentiment has changed in just one month. Thirty days ago, I was asked repeatedly by stressed out producers what they… Read more.
WASDE Week (1/8/2013) - This is a sample entry from John Payne’s newsletter, This Week in Grain, published on January 7, 2013. I hope you had a fantastic holiday season and a happy New Year. It is WASDE week! This is one of the most critical WASDE reports we see all year. The USDA will provide us their final… Read more.
Charting Soybeans (11/14/2012) - This is a sample entry from John Payne’s newsletter, This Week in Grain, published on November 14, 2012. You probably noticed in Monday’s report the missing charts section. That is because this week TWIG is doing deeper chart analysis on corn, beans and wheat. Yesterday we went over corn, today we will touch on beans,… Read more.
Get Ready For the Holidays With a Christmas Tree Spread (10/18/2012) - Learn a different way to combine options to take a specific idea and put it into action.
Re-Ownership via Call Spreads: Have Your Cake and Eat It Too (9/20/2012) - The recent break in the grain markets has had my phone ringing with producers and speculators alike, clamoring for a plan to handle what they perceive to be a confusing market. For the first time in two months, I could feel some panic coming from those who are long the markets. Many are fretting they… Read more.
This Week in Grain (Week of August 06) (8/7/2012) - Rains moved through the Midwest over the weekend with a fury, dumping much needed moisture along the I-80 corridor from Des Moines to Cleveland. Describing the rains as a crop saving event may be a bit dramatic, but I don’t feel the description is too far off, especially for beans. Certain areas in eastern Iowa… Read more.
This Week in Grain (Week of June 18) (6/18/2012) - Greece looks to have made it through the weekend, with the center-right and pro-bailout New Democracy party winning the parliamentary election there by a narrow margin over the feared Syriza party. A Syriza win would have put an anti-Euro party into leadership. Greece elected a party that will continue to play ball with the European… Read more.
This Week in Grain (Week of June 11) (6/11/2012) - US Crop weather, the June WASDE report and an ever changing picture in Europe will dominate the headlines this week in the grain and oilseed markets. The trading for the week will start out on a positive note, as European politicians were presented with a request from the Spanish Government for a bailout of approximately… Read more.
Markets to Watch: July Corn vs. July Wheat (5/11/2012) - The spread market between these two feed substitutes has been a swing trader’s dream. The tight, consistent ranges and the support and resistance on each side of the trade have provided those involved with a great trade setup for months. After the recent USDA report, Corn has taken its turn as the whipping post in… Read more.
The Game Plan for Investing in Today’s Corn Market (5/10/2012) - The corn trade has been incredibly complicated as of late. The situation is one that projects both the most bullish and bearish of set ups, simultaneously. So what is anyone involved in the grain trade supposed to do? What do we focus on going forward that will project prices higher or lower? If market participants… Read more.
When to Hedge? When to Make Cash Sales? Know the Difference! (4/27/2012) - Through our experience from working with more than a few grain farmers, we are always dealing with the producer dilemma of choosing whether they should hedge or make a cash sale. As similar as the two choices appear to be, they are NOT one in the same. Each action will eliminate downside price risk, but… Read more.
Futures Spread Techniques: Butterfly Futures Spread (4/14/2012) - Savvy traders, who understand the term structures of futures markets, often use the butterfly futures spread to isolate certain contracts in which they feel demand or supply will be the strongest or weakest.
Markets to Watch: July Wheat (3/22/2012) - The wheat markets have provided an interesting setup as of late, continuing to trade in a range bound by its symmetrical triangle pattern. The next few weeks could be very telling for the medium term direction of wheat. Chicago Wheat in the short run has been constrained by this symmetrical triangle for the past six… Read more.
Futures Spread Techniques: The Bear Spread (3/15/2012) - Traders with bearish views of the economy need to tread lightly while commodities are at current prices. Due to easy money, algorithmic trading programs, a shrinking world and massive geopolitical risk, playing any market with an easy defined “buy” or “sell” stamp on it can be a difficult trade to sit through. In a market like energy, it can be downright deadly for those without massive pockets.
What to Keep in Mind Before Starting a Marketing Plan (2/16/2012) - As commodities prices rally, producers of goods should be taking a hard look at marketing plans that will hedge downside price risk.
Re-Ownership Strategies Explained: Have your Cake and Eat It Too (1/30/2012) - Part 1: Hedging Stock Exposure For those of us who are involved in the buying and selling of assets, the feeling of buyers/sellers remorse is one that can remain with us for a while. As anyone who has participated in these markets can attest, it is almost impossible to sell at the very top and… Read more.
Trading Resolutions for 2012 (12/28/2011) - As 2011 comes to a close, it is normal for all of us who participate in these markets to look back and review the trades we’ve made and the opportunities we’ve missed. This arbitrary date which we consider “The New Year” provides many traders a clean slate to start fresh and do things differently. We’ve… Read more.
The Collar: The Bread and Butter Option Strategy for Hedgers (11/21/2011) - Many believe that we are in a golden age of farming in this country. Since the summer of 2006, we have seen grain prices move in a big range, both up and down. These price fluctuations combined with below trend yields, new markets (such as China) becoming more willing buyers, and other policy factors have… Read more.
Know Your Trading Lingo: A List of Terms to Help You Speak Our Language (10/31/2011) - As you start following the futures markets, you will find that brokers, traders, and individuals in the futures/commodities industry have certain “speak”. Much like the military, where exotic terms for everything are the norm, traders have their own language that could confuse a beginner. Specific market terms are difficult to comprehend at first but are… Read more.
Reap the Benefits of Spread Trading (10/21/2011) - The sayings go, “you can’t teach an old dog new tricks” and “if it isn’t broken don’t fix it”. We get it – we will leave the old dogs alone. Then again, how come no one ever talks about teaching new dogs old tricks? There is a trading style, as old as the exchanges themselves,… Read more.
What’s Your Margin to Equity Ratio? (10/13/2011) - Margin Requirements Are Not Recommendations Many consider the leverage involved with futures to be a blessing and a curse. There are few investing environments that will give an individual investor as much leverage as they can receive from an FCM and exchange — those responsible for setting margins. For example, one clearing firm we work… Read more.
Dr. Copper’s Diagnosis is Not Good for Commodity Bulls (9/23/2011) - Since the middle of February, Copper prices have fallen from a high of $4.62 to a fresh low of $3.45 – this has my attention; it should have yours as well. Copper is known to many traders as “Dr. Copper” because of its ability to predict overall demand/supply in the economy. However, Copper is not… Read more.
Use the Ratio Spread to Stay in Winning Positions (9/15/2011) - The financial markets provide participants with difficult decisions in every situation. An envious but no less difficult position is one that involves a winning trade. There comes a point when the desire to take profits overcomes the desire to stay in that profitable position. The psychology involving loss of profits can be even harder to… Read more.
Eliminate Report Risk: Use Weekly Options to Hedge Short Term (9/7/2011) - A few months back, the CME Group launched weekly grain options for corn, wheat, and soybeans. On Sunday, September 25th, the CME Group will introduce Live Cattle and Soybean Oil/Meal weekly options. These options, short term in nature, will trade just like the monthly options that we all know. Each weekly option will have a… Read more.
How to Catch a Gold Knife (8/26/2011) - Have you seen gold lately? Where is it trading? How quickly will it get to $2000? Is it too late to get in? These were a few questions I had received from clients who were looking to get long the currency of kings after the S&P debt downgrade. The only advice I had given was… Read more.
Using Social Media as a Way to Stay In Tune with the Markets (8/19/2011) - New technology like social media can be a benefit to your trading and investing.In the days before the Internet, traders would spend hundreds if not thousands of dollars on Squawk Boxes and real time market information.Now you can get the same information on the internet and mobile phone applications like Twitter for little or no… Read more.
Know Your Limits: Day Trading Limits Explained (8/3/2011) - There are some pretty significant differences between the futures markets and the equities markets. The first big difference is the trading hours: the futures markets trade 23 hours a day for most markets versus an 8:30 AM (central time) open and a 3:00 PM close in the equities markets. The second difference is the ease… Read more.
Spread Your Wings with a Butterfly Call Spread (7/26/2011) - A butterfly option spread is a multiple option position that involves the simultaneous purchase of calls or puts with the sale of calls or puts. The way the spread will be established will depend on how bullish or bearish one is on a market. The same rule applies with other option strategies; there is no… Read more.
Using Options to Profit from Time Decay (7/20/2011) - All option buyers have one common enemy, Father Time. Option expiration is one of the few certainties we can find in this world of financial markets. When buying an option, you are betting that the market will move in a certain direction within a certain amount of time. When pricing out anything that involves time… Read more.
Credit Spreads: Collect Premium While Keeping Your Clothes On (6/29/2011) - Readers of this blog should be very familiar with option spreads. We have written in the past (Option Spreads Examined Further: Measured Ways to Play Your Market Hunch, Bear Put Spreads: An Alternative to Purchasing Puts, and Bull Call Spreads: An Alternative to Purchasing Calls) about the different ways traders can participate in leveraged markets… Read more.
Using Market Correlation Data to Diversify Your Portfolio (6/23/2011) - As most investors know, hundreds of strategies and ideas exist which can be used to capitalize on any market. Undoubtedly, everyone has a different way of putting his or her money to work. Because of the development of modern portfolio theory in the country’s best management schools, one investing behavior that every money manager encourages… Read more.
Option Spreads Examined Further: Measured Ways to Play Your Market Hunch (6/8/2011) - New option traders tend to overlook the strategy of combining two options to form spreads, which allow different degrees of market optimism or pessimism. Option spreading is different than futures because a straight futures play only portrays one degree of bullishness/bearishness. If one is long the futures, he better be very sure the market is… Read more.
Risk Averse Grain Traders Should Think Small (5/26/2011) - As food prices have risen over the last few years we have seen an influx of players into the grain markets. Many have decided that now is the time to invest in food, as the prices for life perpetuating consumables have almost doubled since the commodities crash in 2008. The public view seems to be… Read more.
Wheat By Any Other Name… (5/16/2011) - When it comes to trading wheat futures, it is paramount to know the types of wheat is out there and where to trade each variation. As the summer begins to arrive along the southwestern plains, news continues to come out about the drought and hot temperatures there creating a poor quality crop. The speculator in us all tells us to buy wheat as the supply coming online will be small and poor in quality.
“Why I Chose DT” Responses from John’s Clients
THESE TESTIMONIALS ARE FROM SELECT MEMBERS. THEIR EXPERIENCES MAY NOT BE TYPICAL OF WHAT YOU CAN EXPECT TO ACHIEVE, AS RESULTS MAY VARY. CLAIMS CONTAINED WITHIN TESTIMONIALS HAVE NOT BEEN VERIFIED. CUSTOMERS WERE NOT PAID OR COMPENSATED IN ANY WAY FOR THEIR STATEMENTS.
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