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The USDA released their June WASDE today and it was fairly neutral overall. Corn and wheat were slightly bearish and soybeans were a bit bullish. The bigger June report will be at the end of the month when Quarterly Stocks and Plantings are reported. The market shrugged off any bearish news today. The focus is now on hot and dry summer weather in the Midwest, acres loss in MN and ND, and the uncertainty surrounding grain and oilseed exports out of the Black Sea.
N. American summer weather will have a huge impact on wheat, corn, soybeans, and canola over the next four to eight weeks. For the moment the trade is concerned about a high pressure ridge forming in the US Midwest. This type of ridge can happen after La Nina periods and if the hot/dry weather is prolonged we could have significant production loss in the US.
The other major wild card is the Black Sea. On paper the world has plenty of grain for export. In reality 25 to 50 MMTs of needed grain and oilseeds could be stuck in Ukraine. The USDA does not know how to account for this, and quite frankly neither does the market. Expect high prices and volatility until more is know about the N. Hemisphere crop and Black Sea exports later this fall.
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If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
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