Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 306
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Inflation is raging and central banks have been slow to react. The Bank of Canada raised interest rates by 0.50% today and the US Federal Reserve is expected to do the same after the next FOMC meeting. Old crop corn, wheat, soybeans, and canola are still tight and new crop prices are rallying as the market accepts the likelihood of tight stock during the 2022-23 marketing year. In this podcast we go over the USD and CAD, crude oil prices, corn, wheat, soybeans, and canola. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!
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CORN NEW CROP SCENARIOS
Below are some scenarios for new crop corn based on 91mm, 90mm and 89.5mm acres. I also used yields of 181, 180, and 179 to get a bearish, neutral, and bullish range of ending stock estimates. Corn will be tight in 2022-23 and we can not afford to lose any acres or yield. I’ve increased exports due to the loss of Ukraine’s ability to ship out of the Black Sea. Based on the three scenarios below, corn could trade between $5.00 and $9.25 next marketing year. A huge range based on small changes in acres and yield. $5 is a possible harvest low with increase acres, record 181 yield (or higher), and a huge S. America crop to help offset some of the losses in the Black Sea. The $9.25 summer high could come if we see acres stay around 89.5mm and yields start to drop below 179, only about a 1% drop from trend. A 3% to 5% drop from trend puts corn at $10. A 2% bpa over trend and 91mm acres most likely puts corn in the low to mid $5s at harvest.
Expect massive volatility this summer as we learn more about old crop exporter stocks, Ukraine’s ability to grow and export grain and oilseeds, and US production. When stocks are this tight globally and in the N. America, it only takes small changes in acres, yield, and demand to cause big price moves.
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