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Home / Futures Blog / Turner’s Take Podcast | Bank of Canada Raises Interest Rates 0.50%; Fed Expected To Do The Same

Turner’s Take Podcast | Bank of Canada Raises Interest Rates 0.50%; Fed Expected To Do The Same

April 13, 2022 by Craig Turner

Turner's Take Podcast

Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 306

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Inflation is raging and central banks have been slow to react.  The Bank of Canada raised interest rates by 0.50% today and the US Federal Reserve is expected to do the same after the next FOMC meeting.  Old crop corn, wheat, soybeans, and canola are still tight and new crop prices are rallying as the market accepts the likelihood of tight stock during the 2022-23 marketing year. In this podcast we go over the USD and CAD, crude oil prices, corn, wheat, soybeans, and canola. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!

Turner’s Take Moving to StoneX

Turner’s Take is moving to StoneX at the end of April.  Some of you already get Turner’s Take directly from StoneX.  A large majority of you still receive Turner’s Take from our legacy system at Daniels Trading.  Existing clients with an ID/PW to StoneX will have a seamless transition.  For those of you who are not clients you will need to set up a username and password with StoneX.  In about a week you will receive an email from StoneX with instructions on how you can still receive my newsletter.  More details to follow.

CORN NEW CROP SCENARIOS

Below are some scenarios for new crop corn based on 91mm, 90mm and 89.5mm acres. I also used yields of 181, 180, and 179 to get a bearish, neutral, and bullish range of ending stock estimates.  Corn will be tight in 2022-23 and we can not afford to lose any acres or yield.  I’ve increased exports due to the loss of Ukraine’s ability to ship out of the Black Sea.  Based on the three scenarios below, corn could trade between $5.00 and $9.25 next marketing year.  A huge range based on small changes in acres and yield.  $5 is a possible harvest low with increase acres, record 181 yield (or higher), and a huge S. America crop to help offset some of the losses in the Black Sea.  The $9.25 summer high could come if we see acres stay around 89.5mm and yields start to drop below 179, only about a 1% drop from trend.  A 3% to 5% drop from trend puts corn at $10.  A 2% bpa over trend and 91mm acres most likely puts corn in the low to mid $5s at harvest.

Expect massive volatility this summer as we learn more about old crop exporter stocks, Ukraine’s ability to grow and export grain and oilseeds, and US production.  When stocks are this tight globally and in the N. America, it only takes small changes in acres, yield, and demand to cause big price moves.

About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter

If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner

Risk Disclosure

The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI does business as Daniels Trading/Top Third/Futures Online. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI.

Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.

© 2023 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved

Filed Under: Turner's Take, Turner's Take Podcast

About Craig Turner

Craig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.

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Risk Disclosure

The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI does business as Daniels Trading/Top Third/Futures Online. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI.

Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.

© 2023 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved

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