Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 292
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In this week’s podcast we focus on the USDA’s Dec WASDE report. The market viewed it as bearish wheat, neutral corn, and bullish soybeans. We see the trade quickly digesting this report and then moving on to trading US exports and S. American weather. I think MW and KC wheat will find support on the breaks. Corn has the potential to break through $6 on increased demand or S. American weather issues. Soybeans will most likely be range bound but the USDA was supportive for soybean oil. To learn then please take a listen to the latest Turner’s Take Podcast!
DEC WASDE MIXED
WHEAT – This report is moderately bearish for wheat. Exports for all US wheat were lowered by 20mm bushels to 840mm. The USDA noted the slower pace for HRS wheat exports and lowered HRW wheat exports too. High prices are rationing demand. Wheat prices are expected to remain elevated for the rest of the marketing year and will discourage exports. The US will be the residual supply of wheat on the global market. Global wheat stocks came in at the high end of the range. Consumption is higher but also is production and ending stocks.
CORN – US numbers and S. American production is unchanged from Nov. Global corn stocks were up slightly but overall this report was neutral for corn.
SOYBEANS – US numbers and S. American production is unchanged from Nov. Global soybean production was lowered along with ending stocks due to lower Chinese production. This is mildly bullish for soybeans.
SOYBEAN OIL – The USDA did note the EPA biofuel mandates and kept 2021/22 use at 11 billion pounds. Soybean oil production is estimated to increase in order to offset lower canola and cottonseed oil production. Ending stocks stayed the same, but use increased, which makes the stock/usage tighter to almost 7%. Soybean oil is forecast to have an average price of 65 cents per pound in the cash market.
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