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What News Moves the Market?

November 18, 2021 by Frank Kaberna| Tips & Strategies

Rumors started to swirl concerning the nomination for the next Federal Reserve Chairperson a little over a week ago.* Would President Biden nominate the current Fed Chair Jerome Powell for another term, or would he go to the more dovish Democrat Lael Brainard?

S10Y \ 10YR Treasury Yield Index

Source: dxFeed Index Services (https://indexit.dxfeed.com)

Interest rate markets, which the Fed has significant influence over, were likely expecting another term for Powell given that Treasury yields fell several basis points following even the mention of Brainard in the interview process. Though further developments in this story will be important for the future of the US economy at large, most traders were seeking the answer to just one question as the news broke: Are Yields a Buy or Sell?

A Logical Approach to Trading the News

It might seem simple, but asking how much a news item actually matters can be a solid way to start your research. Allegedly, yields fell because President Biden interviewed a dovish Fed Governor, a supporter of monetary expansion and thus low interest rates, for the next Fed Chair appointment.

Though the Fed Chair may hold considerable sway, most actions from the Federal Reserve or Federal Open Market Committee require a vote from a mix of the Board of Governors, of which there are seven, and the regional Federal Reserve Bank Presidents, of which there are twelve.

Gain exposure to popular markets with standardized tick values and expiration dates on the Small Exchange. See why the smalls are making a big splash. >>

Given this information, which is readily available at federalreserve.gov and wikipedia.org, did it make sense for Treasury yields to fall near pandemic lows on the rumor of a new Fed Chair?

A Statistical Approach to Trading the News

Vast amounts of market data now at your fingertips via trading platforms can give you the ability to commit statistical research as well. It can be as easy as asking how markets were affected in the past by similar events.

Since 2000, three new Fed Chairpersons have been appointed (Bernanke, Yellen, Powell). Cross referencing the dates of their terms’ start** with price action in yields leading up to and following said dates conclude no major trends higher or lower no matter if they were doves or hawks, supporters of monetary tightening and thus high interest rates.

TNX \ 10YR Treasury Yield Index

Source: dxFeed Index Services (https://indexit.dxfeed.com)

After checking your platform, did markets shift enough during past Fed appointments to warrant the activity seen amid news of the potential for a new Chairperson?

Sure, this opportunity to trade the news has come and gone, but there are hundreds of news items posted daily covering the multitude of asset classes at your disposal. Open your search engine and trade platform, and go get ‘em!

 

*Biden meets with Fed leaders Powell and Brainard as nomination decision nears” from cnbc.com 11/5/21
**Info available at federalreserve.gov

—
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© 2021 Small Exchange, Inc. All rights reserved. Small Exchange, Inc. is a Designated Contract Market registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The information in this advertisement is current as of the date noted, is for informational purposes only, and does not contend to address the financial objectives, situation, or specific needs of any individual investor. Trading futures involves the risk of loss, including the possibility of loss greater than your initial investment.

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Filed Under: Tips & Strategies

About Frank Kaberna

Frank Kaberna is the head content strategist at the Small Exchange. He produces everything from brochures to videos that inform on the Small Exchange’s products. After earning a mathematics degree from the University of Michigan, Frank traded interest rates at the Chicago Board of Trade. He then worked on the tastytrade Network as a content producer and on-air talent before landing at the Small Exchange.

Risk Disclosure

The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI does business as Daniels Trading/Top Third/Futures Online. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI.

Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.

© 2022 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved

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Risk Disclosure

The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI does business as Daniels Trading/Top Third/Futures Online. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI.

Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.

© 2022 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved

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