Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 289
Podcast: Play in new window | Download
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS | Subscribe to Turner's Take Podcast
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!
New Podcast
I’ve been traveling all week in Canada. It is snowing in Saskatoon so I hope I make my connecting flight in Vancouver. That’s right, the best option for me today was Saskatoon ->Vancouver -> Chicago. Before the pandemic we could fly direct to Saskatchewan but there isn’t enough air travel yet to get those flights back. This podcast was recorded at the hotel so the audio quality is a little off this week. It will be back to our regular production standards once I’m back in the office. We spend most of our time this week on the November WASDE and what we are looking for going forward with corn, wheat, soybeans, canola, soybean oil, natural gas, and crude oil. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take!
If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free! You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take.
November WASDE
The November WASDE was supportive for grain and oilseeds. The big concern going into the report was higher soybean ending stocks due to lower export demand. Demand was weaker but the USDA also decreased production a half bushel to 51.2. The result was a moderately bullish surprise and soybean stocks only climbed 20mm bushels to 340 million bushels
Global soybeans stocks were lower but global corn stocks are higher. The market has settled out after the initial report response to the better than expected numbers. Wheat is still tight and will be the leader with corn also a bullish driver. Soybeans are stuck to between a large S. American crop coming in a few months but tight corn and wheat stocks in the US and globally.
WHEAT
Going forward Wheat will stay elevated but the market knows that the world produces wheat for export every few months. The major exporting nations are the US, Canada, Argentina, EU, Ukraine, Russia, and Australia. Argentina and Australia will have week for export in the next month or two. That should help alleviate tight stocks. A good crop in the N. Hemisphere in 2022 could bring stocks back go normal levels. The moral of the story is while wheat is in tight supply now and deserves to be the leader on the board, wheat an also go back to more historical prices quicker than corn and soybeans due to all the wheat that is produced around the world.
SOYBEANS
I am concerned about new crop soybeans. If S. American has a good crop and we see more N. American soybean acres due to the higher input costs for corn, then soybeans could be $1 to $2 lower this time next year. Farmers need to use rallies to price/hedge 2022 new crop soybeans.
CORN
Finally, I do like corn and think $5.50 is a good value area. China is buying corn right now from Ukraine and I personally think that is because they want to avoid reporting how much corn they need. Corn in China is still high and around $9 and $10 per bushel. Corn in the Ukraine is more expensive than US corn but their is no daily reporting system in Ukraine. A shrewd trader would buy the Ukraine corn first and then come to the US and S. America later this year. Corn is adequate to tight with a carryout below 1.5 billion, feed will be strong due to the tightness of feed wheat, and ethanol margins are very positive given the energy situation in the US and globally. When you consider the price of fertilizer and how that impacts margins for corn producers on lower productive ground, we could see lower acres in the US or less fertilizer usage. Either way corn should be supported in the $5.40 to $5.50 area with resistance at $5.85, $6.00 and finally $6.20
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Turner’s Take Spec: https://www.turnerstake.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Subscribe to Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast
Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast - Turner’s Take is a complimentary weekly market commentary newsletter that covers the Grain, Livestock and Energy futures spread markets using fundamental, technical and seasonal analysis.
Risk Disclosure
The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI does business as Daniels Trading/Top Third/Futures Online. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
© 2021 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved
