Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 275
Podcast: Play in new window | Download
Subscribe: RSS | Subscribe to Turner's Take Podcast
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!
New Podcast
The USDA will release their May WASDE on Wednesday the 12th at 11am central. The May WASDE tends to be a big report because this is the first time the USDA includes new crop supply and demand tables for new crop. We go over the industry analyst estimates, what that means for prices, and where we could see some surprises. The spec trade is very long, prices are high, and we have a long way to go before this new crop is made. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!
If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free! You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take.
May WASDE Estimates
Below are the industry analyst estimates for US old and new crop endings stocks, World old and new crop ending stocks, and South American production. Here are a few observations
- Old crop corn at 1.275 is tight and increases to exports and ethanol could be bullish. Bears will argue more wheat is being used for feed over corn so the USDA could have some wiggle room as they add export demand but take away feed demand
- Old crop soybeans will remain tight in the 120 area. It is difficult to see the soybean numbers changing much given the current environment.
- Old crop wheat could be a little more bullish. We are hearing a lot about wheat for feed in the western corn belt.
- New crop corn at 1.344 is why new crop is so strong. There is no room for error this summer and a trend line yield starts off at a lofty 179.5. The USDA will most likely use the acreage number from the March planting intentions report but the trade will price in more acres as planting progresses in the US
- Soybeans are tight year over year. Soybeans can not lose acres to corn. Soybeans need a 50 bpa national yield or higher. There is zero room for error with this soybean crop
- South American Brazil corn production is a big wild card. It is not a question of IF the USDA will reduce Brazilian corn production but HOW MUCH. Most in the industry think it will be 5 to 6mm mt in this report but could ultimately be closer to 10 million mts when it is all said and done
The big risk probably lies to the downside only because the spec side of the market is so long and prices have come up very fast. Any kind of bearish surprise probably causes a big sell off. If so I still think the breaks are bought but you never know what the USDA is going to report. I think the grain and oilseed markets are bullish but we’ve seen some HUGE curveballs from the USDA in the past so trade with caution! In other words, when it comes to a report like this everyone is swimming at their own risk.
Give me a call if you need some help protection your positions and risk ahead of the report. My number is 312-706-7610 or you can email me at craig.turner@stonex.com
Interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing? If so then click here to open an account. If you are a speculative or online trader then please click here.
US Old Crop and New Crop Ending Stock Estimates
Global Old Crop and New Crop Ending Stock Estimates
Interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing? If so then click here to open an account. If you are a speculative or online trader then please click here.
South American Production Estimates
Interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing? If so then click here to open an account. If you are a speculative or online trader then please click here.
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Turner’s Take Spec: https://www.turnerstake.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Risk Disclosure
The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI does business as Daniels Trading/Top Third/Futures Online. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
© 2023 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved
You must be logged in to post a comment.