Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 269
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This week we go over the latest Fed meeting and why we still have a bullish outlook on the macro markets. We take a look into the recent energy sell off, the rally in livestock, and why the grain markets are grinding lower this month. Make sure you take a listen to the latest Turner’s Take podcast!
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Fed Meeting Recap
The Federal Reserve met this week and announced no changes to interest rates. This was expected and no surprise to the market. I think the more important news was the Fed’s outlook on GDP, unemployment, and inflation.
- 2021 GDP expected GDP growth now 6.5% compared to 4.2% in the Dec meeting
- 2021 Unemployment expected 4.5% compared to 5.0 in Dec meeting
- 2021 Inflation expected to rise to 2.4%, up from 1.8% in the last meeting
These are bullish sentiments for the US economy and the commodity markets.
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Energy Markets
Crude Oil broke hard today. Inventories climbed higher yesterday and the market was overbought. A lot of the rally since the election has been due to US supply policy, OPEC not increasing production, and the expected energy growth this spring and summer. Before Crude can make the next leg higher we will need to see real demand growth. For now I think we trade between the mid $50s and mid $60s.
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July Crude Oil
Grain & Livestock
Soybeans were down 30 cents today on profit taking, South American harvest, and a lack of US export demand. March is typically a soft month for grain prices as the weather premium comes out of SA but it is too ealry to have a weather market in the US. Export sales are now going to Brazil and Argentina as their is harvested and the US export season winds down.
A bull market needs to be fed every day, especially a bull market during price rationing. I can’t get too bearish on prices with such tight stocks and planting around the corner, but it is hard to rally with no bullish news. The markets should trade in a big range between now and the March 31 Planting and Quarterly Stocks reports. If SX breaks $12.00 then $11.60 should hold. There is zero reason for SX to trade $11 between now and the report with stocks so tight in old crop and the need for 90mm acres this spring.
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November Soybeans
Turner’s Take Podcast
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Turner’s Take Spec: https://www.turnerstake.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
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