WELCOME TO MARCH
- A well below normal (rain free) forecast is offered for Argentina into March 10th. The lack of Arg rain along with temps ranging from the mid 80’s to the mid 90’s is going to spark talk about a potential flash drought. Near to above normal showers will drop across N Brazil with cumulative 10-day totals of 3.50-6.50”. The weather pattern that started on February 10th is stuck and shows no movement. This is a typical La Nina pattern. It appears that enough rain will drop across S Brazil to prevent drought there. Crop progress numbers last week showed Argentina corn improved slightly while bean production remains in doubt on the margins.
- Flooding rain occurred during the weekend as expected from Arkansas and immediate bordering areas of Texas and Louisiana through northern Mississippi, Tennessee and southeastern Missouri to West Virginia. Rain totals have ranged from 3.00 to more than 7.00 inches through dawn today resulting in small river and stream flooding and possibly damaging winter wheat in lowlying areas (world weather inc). Weekly wheat crop conditions report begin today, as we will get conditions and eventually planting reports on Monday afternoons.
- OPEC+ meeting takes place this week on Thursday in Vienna. “There’s a real risk they’re going to over-tighten the market,” said Bill Farren-Price, a director at research firm Enverus and veteran observer of the cartel. “It’s already super-tight, and if OPEC just focuses on keeping prices up, that’s going to eventually provoke supplies from their rivals.” The question he is referring to is what does the US do in regards to production expansion as prices rally.
- March CBOT contracts are in delivery or I like to say, rubber meeting road. Bullish clues are abound in regards to near term demand.
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