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This week in Grain and Oilseeds 3/1-3/5

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WELCOME TO MARCH

Vidyard Recording

 

  • A well below normal (rain free) forecast is offered for Argentina into March 10th. The lack of Arg rain along with temps ranging from the mid 80’s to the mid 90’s is going to spark talk about a potential flash drought. Near to above normal showers will drop across N Brazil with cumulative 10-day totals of 3.50-6.50”. The weather pattern that started on February 10th   is stuck and shows no movement. This is a typical La Nina pattern. It appears that enough rain will drop across S Brazil to prevent drought there. Crop progress numbers last week showed Argentina corn improved slightly while bean production remains in doubt on the margins.

     

  • Flooding rain occurred during the weekend as expected from Arkansas and immediate bordering areas of Texas and Louisiana through northern Mississippi, Tennessee and southeastern Missouri to West Virginia. Rain totals have ranged from 3.00 to more than 7.00 inches through dawn today resulting in small river and stream flooding and possibly damaging winter wheat in lowlying areas (world weather inc). Weekly wheat crop conditions report begin today, as we will get conditions and eventually planting reports on Monday afternoons.

  • OPEC+ meeting takes place this week on Thursday in Vienna. “There’s a real risk they’re going to over-tighten the market,” said Bill Farren-Price, a director at research firm Enverus and veteran observer of the cartel. “It’s already super-tight, and if OPEC just focuses on keeping prices up, that’s going to eventually provoke supplies from their rivals.”  The question he is referring to is what does the US do in regards to production expansion as prices rally.
  • March CBOT contracts are in delivery or I like to say, rubber meeting road.  Bullish clues are abound in regards to near term demand.


SOYBEANS

CORN

 

COTTON

 

WHEAT

CHICAGO

O

 

KC

 

MINNEAPOLIS

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About John Payne

John Payne is a Senior Futures & Options Broker and Market Strategist with Daniels Trading. He is the publisher of the grain focused newsletter called This Week in Grain, along with being a co-editor of Andy Daniels’s newsletter, Grain Analyst. He has been working as a series 3 registered broker since 2008.

John graduated from the University of Iowa with a degree in economics. After school, John embarked on a 4 year career with the United States Navy. It was during two tours in Iraq and the Persian Gulf where John realized how important commodities are to the survival of society as we know it. It was this understanding that brought about John’s curiosity in commodities. Upon his honorable discharge in 2007, John’s intense interest in the world of commodities inspired him to move to Chicago and pursue his passion in a career in the futures arena.

After a three year position with a managed futures firm specialized in livestock trading, he was given the opportunity to join the team at Daniels Trading. Being in the business and seeing how other IB’s operated, it was the integrity and straightforward approach of the Daniels management team and brokers that attracted him to make the move. Since joining Daniels, John has broadened his fundamental and technical analysis of the markets even further. John has been writing his newsletter This Week in Grain under the Daniels banner since 2011.

Working in high pressure industries like the military and capital markets, John has learned the value of preparation in times of stress. He believes that instilling within his clients the value of a good plan and a cool head for dealing with the day to day swings of commodity markets. He treats every client as a teammate, understanding that his job is to help clients achieve their goals, whatever they may be.

John is a proud supporter of the Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America, the Veterans of Foreign Wars and the National Corn Growers Association. When he is not working, he enjoys athletics of all kinds and spending time with his wife and their two kids.

John’s commentary is featured in the following publications:

* All Ag Radio – Sirius Channel 80
* AM 880 KRVN – Lexington, Nebraska
* RFD TV
* Wall Street Journal
* Barron’s
* China News Daily (English version)