Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 266
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This week we go over our thoughts on the WASDE, where prices can go from here, and why we are changing our thoughts on old crop corn. We are still bullish soybeans and the grain markets in general, but the USDA threw some cold water on the corn market and we can’t hide from it. Make sure you take a listen to Turner’s Take Podcast!
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Corn
Here’s the deal. I want to be bullish on old crop corn but there is something in that WASDE report yesterday that we have to address. The USDA acknowledged China’s increased corn demand and only increased exports by 50mm bushels. It looks like they expect some traditional buyers of US corn will move to S. America, Ukraine, or S. Africa as China buys more from the US. The opposite happened in soybeans when China left for S.America beans during the tariff years. The US lost China but gained a lot of the traditional business that usually goes to Brazil.
I think old crop corn is now range bound between the high $4s and mid $5s until we know more about the S. American crop and new crop acres. Old crop still has potential to rally but it will most likely be from a weather rally. Corn prices around the world are high. China probably does not have all the corn they say they have in storage. Demand is strong for US corn. All three of those things are true but you can’t fight the USDA. You can but it is usually a losing effort.
I put out a rec to sell old crop and new crop corn this morning. Even though we traded at our price (and higher) I am not going to count it as a sale yet in the newsletter. The market moved too fast for everyone to take advantage. I’ll wait until we trade through those prices again to take credit.
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Soybeans
The USDA put old crop at the 120mm bushels, which is close enough to pipeline minimum stocks. Any rally for old crop to $14 will most likely be lead by a US spring/summer weather rally. Soybean export sales will be going to S. America soon now that Brazil harvest is around the corner. For the rally to resume in Feb/March we need to see lower yields come out of S.America or evidence of lower than expected new crop soybean acres in the US.
I’m not bearish soybeans. I am still bullish this spring and summer but we are entering a period on the calendar when S.America’s crop is made, harvested and brought to market. We are going to be range bound for the moment and it is going to be a big range.
Interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing? If so then click here to open an account. If you are a speculative or online trader then please click here.
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