Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 266
Podcast: Play in new window | Download
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | RSS | Subscribe to Turner's Take Podcast
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!
New Podcast
This week we go over our thoughts on the WASDE, where prices can go from here, and why we are changing our thoughts on old crop corn. We are still bullish soybeans and the grain markets in general, but the USDA threw some cold water on the corn market and we can’t hide from it. Make sure you take a listen to Turner’s Take Podcast!
If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free! You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take.
Corn
Here’s the deal. I want to be bullish on old crop corn but there is something in that WASDE report yesterday that we have to address. The USDA acknowledged China’s increased corn demand and only increased exports by 50mm bushels. It looks like they expect some traditional buyers of US corn will move to S. America, Ukraine, or S. Africa as China buys more from the US. The opposite happened in soybeans when China left for S.America beans during the tariff years. The US lost China but gained a lot of the traditional business that usually goes to Brazil.
I think old crop corn is now range bound between the high $4s and mid $5s until we know more about the S. American crop and new crop acres. Old crop still has potential to rally but it will most likely be from a weather rally. Corn prices around the world are high. China probably does not have all the corn they say they have in storage. Demand is strong for US corn. All three of those things are true but you can’t fight the USDA. You can but it is usually a losing effort.
I put out a rec to sell old crop and new crop corn this morning. Even though we traded at our price (and higher) I am not going to count it as a sale yet in the newsletter. The market moved too fast for everyone to take advantage. I’ll wait until we trade through those prices again to take credit.
Interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing? If so then click here to open an account. If you are a speculative or online trader then please click here.
Soybeans
The USDA put old crop at the 120mm bushels, which is close enough to pipeline minimum stocks. Any rally for old crop to $14 will most likely be lead by a US spring/summer weather rally. Soybean export sales will be going to S. America soon now that Brazil harvest is around the corner. For the rally to resume in Feb/March we need to see lower yields come out of S.America or evidence of lower than expected new crop soybean acres in the US.
I’m not bearish soybeans. I am still bullish this spring and summer but we are entering a period on the calendar when S.America’s crop is made, harvested and brought to market. We are going to be range bound for the moment and it is going to be a big range.
Interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing? If so then click here to open an account. If you are a speculative or online trader then please click here.
Turner’s Take Podcast
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Turner’s Take Spec: https://www.turnerstake.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Risk Disclosure
The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI does business as Daniels Trading/Top Third/Futures Online. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
© 2022 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved
You must be logged in to post a comment.