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As Gordon Gecko said in Wall Street, “if you’re not inside, you’re outside”. The price action today in corn and soybeans reminded me of that famous scene. There was not much new in the press or from the USDA. Weather forecasts have not changed much and it looks like the workers strike in Argentina is coming to a conclusion.
For those of us who have been around the block a few times, we’ve seen this kind of price action before. This is a classic price rationing rally. The world and US corn and soybean stocks are getting tighter. Weather in Argentina and Southern Brazil have been dry and now hot. We are getting to the point where crop conditions will only get worse or some acres just won’t get planted. Unless Arg and S. Brazil get soaking rains in the next couple of weeks (which are not in the forecast) then production will be lower in a significant way.
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We are now in a price rationing market and it is just a matter of time before soybeans are $13 (beans in the teens) and we could even make a run at $14. The big surprise for me is corn as my target was $4.60 for March and we are now beyond that. If old crop soybeans can hit $13.50 or $14 then old crop corn can go to $5.
Current carryout projections for soybeans already suggests $13 soybeans and that is without reducing South American production. Corn basis in the US is getting tighter, exports are strong, and US corn is still a decent value for feed grain on the global export market.
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The market now has two jobs to do for soybeans and corn
#1 – price old crop as high as necessary to curb demand
#2 – price new crop as high as necessary to increase acres this spring
If you want to know more about my thoughts on corn and soybeans, then take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!!!
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If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Turner’s Take Spec: https://www.turnerstake.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
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