Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 258
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!
Merry Christmas! The markets are open half day tomorrow, most close between noon and 12:45pm central time. The office will be closed by 1pm on Christmas Eve. Markets will open back up on Sunday night. We will be closed again on Friday, Jan 1 for New Years Day. New Years Eve is a full trading day. Please click here for the full holiday market hour schedule. .
In today’s podcast we go over the macro markets, corn, and soybeans. We talk about how farmers and speculators can get some long exposure in these markets and why we are bullish for 2021. Make sure you take a listen Turner’s Take Podcast!
If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free! You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take.
Grain & Oilseed
I talked on the podcast on how to get long corn and soybeans for 2021. The idea is the same for both. We want to buy call spreads and sell puts to finance. We don’t see July Soybeans trading below $11 or July corn below $4 anytime soon. There will be breaks in these markets and if we see soybeans pull back 30 to 50 cents, or corn 15 to 20 cents, we will be using these strategies for both hedgers and spec traders.
For spec traders we want to get long corn and beans as there is still a lot of upside potential in 2021 between now and July. For farmers there are two plays going on there. Many farmers I know sold a lot of soybeans around harvest and stored corn on farm. For farmers looking to re-own some soybeans, we will be looking for the pullback to buy the call spreads and sell a put. It will be a nice way to get back into soybeans.
For corn we buy the call spreads and sell the puts as a “courage call” play. It think corn can go higher this spring and summer. Farmers will hold onto their crop and if prices do get in the high $4s they will be a lot of uncertainty of when to sell. It is going to be a whole lot easier to sell cash if you already have the calls and call spreads in the hedge account so as you sell the cash corn you are still long the board.
If you are interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing, then click here to open an account. If you are a speculative or online trader then please click here.
As for what spreads we put on, it all depends on what the market gives us. Right now I’m looking at buying the $5 July call, selling the $6,and selling the $4 put. The idea is to have the call spread in place in case we trade into the high $4s this spring/summer. Farmers can pull the trigger with confidence on cash sales at that point and still be long the board. I like the short $4 put because I don’t see July corn going below $4 given the current carryout, likely S. American production issues, high prices around the world, the fight for acres we are going to see in the US between corn and soybeans. If we get a big pullback in corn I’ll adjust the the call spread lower and still write the $4 for financing.
For soybeans we need a pullback. We can get a 30 to 50 cent pullback over the course of a couple of sessions at any time in soybeans, as traders who have been around the block a few times know full well. If we get a pullback close to $12 the July $13/$15 call spread with a short $11 should be close to even and an attractive re-ownership strategy for this marketing year.
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 firstname.lastname@example.org Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Turner’s Take Spec: https://www.turnerstake.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Subscribe to Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast
Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast - Turner’s Take is a complimentary weekly market commentary newsletter that covers the Grain, Livestock and Energy futures spread markets using fundamental, technical and seasonal analysis.
The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI does business as Daniels Trading/Top Third/Futures Online. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.