Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 257
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Goldman Sachs is calling for a long lasting commodity bull market that will benefit energy, metals, and agriculture. We are bullish on corn, the soybean complex, and winter wheat. The US will be issuing more debt for stimulus in the aftermath of the coronavirus shutdowns the the rest of the world’s central banks and governments will most likely follow suit. Ag and the rest of the commodity markets look bright for 2021. If you want to hear more then take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!
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Secular Commodity Bull Market
Goldman Sach’s global head of commodity research, Jeffrey Currie, is predicting a long lasting bull market in most commodities. Crude Oil is breaking out on the charts after nine months of lower production and under investment. Copper is strong as emerging markets and China find demand in a post COVID economy. Strong feed demand is supporting corn and the oilseed complex. Combine economic growth with a weaker USD due to stimulus and new government debt and commodity prices could be on the upswing for years. You can read more in the link below:
S&P Global Platts | Goldman Sachs’ Currie Predicts Long Lasting Commodity Bull Market
Goldman has a $65 target on crude oil by the end of 2021. That would match the highs from Dec 2019, right before COVID started to become a concern. Below is a continuous chart of crude oil with the $65 price target. A move from $48 to $65 is $17 dollars. That is $17,000 in the standard 1000 barrel contract or $8,500 in the mini 500 barrel contract.
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Continuous Crude Oil Daily Chart
Corn
US corn is the cheapest feed grain on the global export market. Below is a chart of US corn vs Matif Maize (Europe) and US Corn vs Black Sea Corn (Ukraine). US corn at $4.20 is about $210/mt. Black Sea corn is $230/mt or $4.60/bushel. Matif is $250/mt or $5.00 per bushel. US corn is much cheaper than Europe and the Black Sea. US corn should have strong demand until the South American harvest, At a 1.7 billion to 1.5 billion carryout and superior export price competitiveness, corn will be supported at $4.00 across the board. A strong demand rally or weather issues in S. America this winter or the US this spring/summer could send old crop to $4.60.
If you are interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing, then click here to open an account. If you are a speculative or online trader then please click here.
If you are interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing, then click here to open an account. If you are a speculative or online trader then please click here.
Continuous Daily Corn Chart
Oilseeds
Below are two charts. The first for US cumulative soybean shipment progress. We are well ahead of pace of the USDA and ending stocks are already estimated at a tight 175mm bushels. Exports are likely to increase in the Jan WASDE. At the same time we’ve seen two record NOPA crush numbers in Oct and November. The crush in the US is strong and showing now signs of slowing down.
Canola is now $475/mt compared to $420/mt for soybean oil. Palm oil is close to eight year highs. Sunflower oil is so strong Russia needs to put export quotes and taxes on sunflower to fight food inflation. Soybean oil is the only global vegetable oil in adequate supply between now and South American harvest. Palm, sunflower, and canola are primarily Northern Hemisphere crops and will not have another harvest until the fall of 2021. Soybean oil at 39 cents a pound is too cheap and we see it trading to 45 cents/lb sooner rather than later.
The final chart below is for monthly continuous soybeans. A close above $12 on the monthly chart calls for much higher prices. We think soybeans will remain elevated and bullish for all or most of 2021. Traders and hedgers who want or need upside exposure to soybeans can call me at 312-706-7610 or email cturner@danielstrading.com
If you are interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing, then click here to open an account. If you are a speculative or online trader then please click here.
US Cumulative Soybean Shipment Progress
Monthly Continuous Soybean Chart
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Turner’s Take Spec: https://www.turnerstake.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
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