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Home / Futures Blog / Turner’s Take Podcast | Goldman Sachs Call For Long Lasting Commodity Bull Market

Turner’s Take Podcast | Goldman Sachs Call For Long Lasting Commodity Bull Market

December 16, 2020 by Craig Turner

Turner's Take Podcast

Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 257

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Goldman Sachs is calling for a long lasting commodity bull market that will benefit energy, metals, and agriculture.  We are bullish on corn, the soybean complex, and winter wheat. The US will be issuing more debt for stimulus in the aftermath of the coronavirus shutdowns the the rest of the world’s central banks and governments will most likely follow suit.  Ag and the rest of the commodity markets look bright for 2021.  If you want to hear more then take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!

If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free!  You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take.

Secular Commodity Bull Market

Goldman Sach’s global head of commodity research, Jeffrey Currie, is predicting a long lasting bull market in most commodities.  Crude Oil is breaking out on the charts after nine months of lower production and under investment.  Copper is strong as emerging markets and China find demand in a post COVID economy.  Strong feed demand is supporting corn and the oilseed complex.  Combine economic growth with a weaker USD due to stimulus and new government debt and commodity prices could be on the upswing for years.  You can read more in the link below:

S&P Global Platts | Goldman Sachs’ Currie Predicts Long Lasting Commodity Bull Market

Goldman has a $65 target on crude oil by the end of 2021.  That would match the highs from Dec 2019, right before COVID started to become a concern.  Below is a continuous chart of crude oil with the $65 price target.  A move from $48 to $65 is $17 dollars.  That is $17,000 in the standard 1000 barrel contract or $8,500 in the mini 500 barrel contract.

If you are interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing, then click here to open an account.  If you are a speculative or online trader then please click here.

Continuous Crude Oil Daily Chart

Corn

US corn is the cheapest feed grain on the global export market.  Below is a chart of US corn vs Matif Maize (Europe) and US Corn vs Black Sea Corn (Ukraine).  US corn at $4.20 is about $210/mt.  Black Sea corn is $230/mt or $4.60/bushel.  Matif is $250/mt or $5.00 per bushel.  US corn is much cheaper than Europe and the Black Sea.  US corn should have strong demand until the South American harvest, At a 1.7 billion to 1.5 billion carryout and superior export price competitiveness, corn will be supported at $4.00 across the board.  A strong demand rally or weather issues in S. America this winter or the US this spring/summer could send old crop to $4.60.

If you are interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing, then click here to open an account.  If you are a speculative or online trader then please click here.

If you are interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing, then click here to open an account.  If you are a speculative or online trader then please click here.

Continuous Daily Corn Chart

Oilseeds

Below are two charts.  The first for US cumulative soybean shipment progress.  We are well ahead of pace of the USDA and ending stocks are already estimated at a tight 175mm bushels.  Exports are likely to increase in the Jan WASDE.  At the same time we’ve seen two record NOPA crush numbers in Oct and November.  The crush in the US is strong and showing now signs of slowing down.

Canola is now $475/mt compared to $420/mt for soybean oil.  Palm oil is close to eight year highs.  Sunflower oil is so strong Russia needs to put export quotes and taxes on sunflower to fight food inflation.  Soybean oil is the only global vegetable oil in adequate supply between now and South American harvest.  Palm, sunflower, and canola are primarily Northern Hemisphere crops and will not have another harvest until the fall of 2021.  Soybean oil at 39 cents a pound is too cheap and we see it trading to 45 cents/lb sooner rather than later.

The final chart below is for monthly continuous soybeans. A close above $12 on the monthly chart calls for much higher prices. We think soybeans will remain elevated and bullish for all or most of 2021.  Traders and hedgers who want or need upside exposure to soybeans can call me at 312-706-7610 or email cturner@danielstrading.com

If you are interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing, then click here to open an account.  If you are a speculative or online trader then please click here.

US Cumulative Soybean Shipment Progress

Monthly Continuous Soybean Chart

 

About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter

If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Turner’s Take Spec: https://www.turnerstake.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner

Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast

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Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast - Turner’s Take is a complimentary weekly market commentary newsletter that covers the Grain, Livestock and Energy futures spread markets using fundamental, technical and seasonal analysis.

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Risk Disclosure

This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.

This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.

Trade recommendations and profit/loss calculations may not include commissions and fees. Please consult your broker for details based on your trading arrangement and commission setup.

You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the "risk disclosure" webpage accessed at www.DanielsTrading.com at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any third-party trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.

Filed Under: Turner's Take, Turner's Take Podcast

About Craig Turner

Craig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.

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Risk Disclosure

This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.

This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.

Trade recommendations and profit/loss calculations may not include commissions and fees. Please consult your broker for details based on your trading arrangement and commission setup.

You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the "risk disclosure" webpage accessed at www.DanielsTrading.com at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any third-party trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.

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