- From my good friend Prof. Rodrigo Alexandre Gomes de Oliveira, Chairman of Global Grain South America. He sends me updates a few times a week on weather and anything else he notices:
- Image below shows a rain anomaly from September to November 2020. As we can see, important producing areas are 100mm to 200mm below historical precipitation.
Accumulated rain for the next 5 days:As we may see, for this week (November 3oth – December 5th) almost no rain at all for Mato Grosso, Goiás and MATOPIBA region.
- Image below shows a rain anomaly from September to November 2020. As we can see, important producing areas are 100mm to 200mm below historical precipitation.
- Egypt is raising its hand for more wheat imports this morning. The tender offers came in right around where they have been over the last several months. Global wheat values have stopped going up, but they remain well above where they were a year ago when the FOB prices were in the $190-210 range. Much like Brazil beans, Russian wheat acreage is really large but begins the winter under stressful conditions with negative temps on the horizon. March wheat takes its place on the top step with December futures in delivery.
- Argentina’s wheat crop is said to be down 30-40% year over year. That should be offset by a large Aussie crop. Australia’s ABARES estimated 2020/21 wheat production at 31.2 MMT, up from 28.9 MMT in September and more than double last year’s harvest. Keep in mind, Australia is in its own trade war with China right now.
- South American write downs begin. There have been few (if any) analysts I’ve read who have reduced the Brazilian bean crop. Yesterday, Dr. Michael Cordonnier the agronomist who focuses on South America adjusted the bean crop down from 132 to 130 MMT (still huge) while reducing corn from 104 MMT to 102. I expect this is just the beginning as he lists a huge amount of acres under stressed out conditions. Keep in mind, the second crop in Brazil and the full season crops in Argentina have a long way to go.
- 40% to 50% of Brazil’s soybeans
- 50% to 60% of Brazil’s full-season corn
- 30% to 40% of Argentina’s soybeans
- 40% to 50% of Argentina’s corn
- 50% to 60% of Paraguay’s soybeans
- 50% to 60% of Uruguay’s soybeans
- Monday afternoon’s weekly Crop Progress report showed 84% of the US cotton crop had been harvested by Sunday, up from 77% the previous week, 82% a year ago and ahead of the 10-year average at 79%. In one week, progress has gone from being steady with the 10-year average to being 5% ahead of it. Of the top producing states, Texas was 82% complete (+8% from the previous week), Georgia 80% (+7%). This is the last crop progress report we will see until next spring. Spec funds remain long cotton to the tune of 60k contracts; fear of liquidation exists on any bad covid or China news.
MONTHLY CHARTS- front month March for everything except Beans (Jan)
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