THE WEEK AHEAD
- Thanksgiving on Thursday will break up the week. Grain markets close at normal times on Wed and will remain close until Friday morning. Markets close an hour early on Friday. Currency, energies, equities and a host of other markets will only close for a few hours on Thursday.
- Congress is out for the Thanksgiving recess, with the House slated to return on Dec. 1 and the Senate on Nov. 30. Biden would “absolutely” meet with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) on a Covid-19 relief package, transition team spokeswoman said over the weekend. Biden wants to get a package passed by the lame-duck Congress within the next couple of weeks, fitting the time after the election but before lawmakers adjourn for the year. As of right now, my outstanding bet for Biden to win the presidency (with an offshore book) has yet to be paid out. I remain on the lookout for surprises related to the election. I am not a constitutional scholar, but it seems to me this is headed for the higher courts. Meanwhile Biden makes plans for transition.
- Reports of a Russian grains export tax have surfaced again this morning, with Russian flour millers and animal meat producers reported to have submitted an appeal set a tax. The Agricultural Ministry has stated that it would consider a proposal on export taxes if an appeal were submitted Russian domestic wheat prices continue to hover above 18,000 Rb/t. The implementation of the tax would serve to discourage international shipments, pushing domestic sales to consumers due to declining purchasing power (weak Ruble). This would be very bullish international wheat markets (outside of Russia) who could potentially win that business. I see wheat as a buy; delivery begins on Friday, which seasonally has been a good time to get long ahead of winter growing problems.
- Meanwhile, global prices stay high. Pakistan reportedly bought around 340kmt of optional-origin wheat in a tender for up to 400k, at just under $287 kmt C&F for March arrival. Again, new highs for global wheat imports.
% OF NORMAL PRECIP FROM SEP 15- NOV 30
WHEAT- KC MARCH
WHEAT- MARCH CHI
Subscribe to This Week In Grain
This Week In Grain - This Week in Grain (T.W.I.G.) is a weekly grain and oilseed commentary newsletter designed to keep grain market participants on the cutting edge, so they can hedge or speculate with more confidence and precision.
This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.
This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.
Trade recommendations and profit/loss calculations may not include commissions and fees. Please consult your broker for details based on your trading arrangement and commission setup.
You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the "risk disclosure" webpage accessed at www.DanielsTrading.com at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any third-party trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.