This Week in Grain and Oilseeds 11/23-11/27

November 23, 2020 by John Payne

Hello friends

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THE WEEK AHEAD

Thanksgiving on Thursday will break up the week. Grain markets close at normal times on Wed and will remain close until Friday morning. Markets close an hour early on Friday. Currency, energies, equities and a host of other markets will only close for a few hours on Thursday.
Congress is out for the Thanksgiving recess, with the House slated to return on Dec. 1 and the Senate on Nov. 30. Biden would “absolutely” meet with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) on a Covid-19 relief package, transition team spokeswoman said over the weekend. Biden wants to get a package passed by the lame-duck Congress within the next couple of weeks, fitting the time after the election but before lawmakers adjourn for the year. As of right now, my outstanding bet for Biden to win the presidency (with an offshore book) has yet to be paid out. I remain on the lookout for surprises related to the election. I am not a constitutional scholar, but it seems to me this is headed for the higher courts. Meanwhile Biden makes plans for transition.
Reports of a Russian grains export tax have surfaced again this morning, with Russian flour millers and animal meat producers reported to have submitted an appeal set a tax. The Agricultural Ministry has stated that it would consider a proposal on export taxes if an appeal were submitted Russian domestic wheat prices continue to hover above 18,000 Rb/t. The implementation of the tax would serve to discourage international shipments, pushing domestic sales to consumers due to declining purchasing power (weak Ruble). This would be very bullish international wheat markets (outside of Russia) who could potentially win that business. I see wheat as a buy; delivery begins on Friday, which seasonally has been a good time to get long ahead of winter growing problems.
Meanwhile, global prices stay high. Pakistan reportedly bought around 340kmt of optional-origin wheat in a tender for up to 400k, at just under $287 kmt C&F for March arrival. Again, new highs for global wheat imports.

% OF NORMAL PRECIP FROM SEP 15- NOV 30

video 2

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CORN- MARCH

SOYBEANS- JANUARY

COTTON

WHEAT- KC MARCH

WHEAT- MARCH CHI

About John Payne

John Payne is a Senior Futures & Options Broker and Market Strategist with Daniels Trading. He is the publisher of the grain focused newsletter called This Week in Grain, along with being a co-editor of Andy Daniels’s newsletter, Grain Analyst. He has been working as a series 3 registered broker since 2008.

John graduated from the University of Iowa with a degree in economics. After school, John embarked on a 4 year career with the United States Navy. It was during two tours in Iraq and the Persian Gulf where John realized how important commodities are to the survival of society as we know it. It was this understanding that brought about John’s curiosity in commodities. Upon his honorable discharge in 2007, John’s intense interest in the world of commodities inspired him to move to Chicago and pursue his passion in a career in the futures arena.

After a three year position with a managed futures firm specialized in livestock trading, he was given the opportunity to join the team at Daniels Trading. Being in the business and seeing how other IB’s operated, it was the integrity and straightforward approach of the Daniels management team and brokers that attracted him to make the move. Since joining Daniels, John has broadened his fundamental and technical analysis of the markets even further. John has been writing his newsletter This Week in Grain under the Daniels banner since 2011.

Working in high pressure industries like the military and capital markets, John has learned the value of preparation in times of stress. He believes that instilling within his clients the value of a good plan and a cool head for dealing with the day to day swings of commodity markets. He treats every client as a teammate, understanding that his job is to help clients achieve their goals, whatever they may be.

John is a proud supporter of the Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America, the Veterans of Foreign Wars and the National Corn Growers Association. When he is not working, he enjoys athletics of all kinds and spending time with his wife and their two kids.

John’s commentary is featured in the following publications:

* All Ag Radio – Sirius Channel 80
* AM 880 KRVN – Lexington, Nebraska
* RFD TV
* Wall Street Journal
* Barron’s
* China News Daily (English version)