• Skip to primary navigation
  • Skip to content
  • Skip to primary sidebar
  • Skip to footer
Daniels Trading

Trade Futures, Spreads and Options with Confidence.

Top Navigation

  • Open a Futures Account
  • Sign Up
  • Log in
  • 1.800.800.3840

Primary Navigation Menu

  • About
    • Who We Are
    • Services
    • Risk Disclosure
    • COVID-19
  • Trade
    • Broker-Assisted
    • Self-Directed / Online
    • Request Pricing
  • Hedge
    • Ag Marketing Plan
    • WASDE Analysis
    • Grain Resources
    • Livestock / Dairy Resources
    • Request Pricing
  • Invest
    • Automated Strategies
    • Managed Futures
    • Request Pricing
  • Advisories
    • GENERAL / FUNDAMENTAL
      • DT Newsletter
      • Insider Market Advisory
      • Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast
    • TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
      • The Cullen Outlook
      • Data Feed Trade
      • Jarboe Trading Journal
      • Trade Spotlight
    • AG MARKETING
      • Cattleman’s Advisory
      • Technical Ag Knowledge
      • Turner’s Take Ag Marketing
    • THIRD-PARTY RESOURCES
      • CFRN
      • Moore Research Center, Inc. (MRCI)
      • OptionWorks®
      • TASMarketProfile.com
  • Education
    • CME Group Resource Center
    • CME Group Offers
    • Small Exchange Resources
    • Guides
    • Frequently Asked Questions
    • Order Entry Handbook
  • Blog
    • Futures 101
    • Ag Marketing
    • Tips & Strategies
    • Trading Advisories
  • Resources
    • Trading Software
    • Quotes and Charts
    • Futures Calendars
    • Contract Specifications
    • Margin Requirements
    • Futures Calculator
  • Accounts
    • Apply
    • Access My Account
    • Funding
  • Contact
Home / Futures Blog / Turner’s Take Podcast | Soybean Oil Closes Above 2016 Highs

Turner’s Take Podcast | Soybean Oil Closes Above 2016 Highs

November 18, 2020 by Craig Turner

Turner's Take Podcast

Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 255

https://media.blubrry.com/twigcast/p/media.blubrry.com/inside_commodity_futures/p/content.blubrry.com/inside_commodity_futures/icf_2020_11_18_episode_0255.mp3

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | RSS | Subscribe to Turner's Take Podcast

If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!

New Podcast

In this podcast we go over why the grain and oilseed markets will continue to be elevated for the rest of the year and well into 2021.  We look at the export pace and why the USDA will most likely increase exports for corn and soybeans and decrease ending stocks. We also talk about soybean oil and why it is the most bullish market in the grain and oilseed complex.  If you want to know more then take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!

If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free!  You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take.

Exports

Below is a table for export sales progress.  The highlighted areas show how current US exports for corn and soybeans are outpacing the USDA estimates according to the WASDE report.  Corn and soybean exports are so strong that we expect the USDA to increase old crop corn exports by at least 200mm bushels and 50 to 100mm bushels for soybeans in the coming WASDE reports.

Below the Export Sales table I also have an updated Turner’s Take corn and soybean supply and demand table.  For soybeans you will notice we don’t have enough available stocks to meet the current pace of exports.  Stocks are already tight. We are on pace to export 2.8 billion beans and the USDA has us pegged at 2.2 billion.  Ending stocks are already sub 200mm so at best we can export 100mm unless prices get so high the crush comes down.  The crush tends to be highly inelastic so most price rationing usually is done at the export level. I’ve included the 2013-2014 marketing year when soybean ending stocks were sub 100 and a stock/usage ratio of 2.66%!  Prices ranged $12 to $15.50 during that period.  If South America has sub trend production and demand stays strong, I think we will see “beans in the teens”.

As for corn, an extra 200 to 400mm bushels of exports brings the corn carryout between 1.5 and 1.3 billion bushels..  That would suggest front month corn trades in the mid to high $4s.  New crop trades to $4.20 or $4.30.  If the market should get close to $5 there are a lot of reasons for corn to hit resistance.  Feed corn can be substituted for feed wheat.  Ethanol margins are not favorable and corn usage declines.  Feed for livestock declines as meat production is discouraged.  There are a lot of reasons for corn to stall out the closer we get to $5 (if that should even happen).  For corn to go over $5 we need serious reduction in corn yields in South America this winter or the US this spring/summer.

If you are interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing, then click here to open an account.  If you are a speculative or online trader then please click here.

Export Sales Progress Analysis

Soybean Ending Stocks with Increased Export Pace

Corn Ending Stocks with Increased Export Pace

Soybean Oil

Soybean Oil closed above the 2016 highs today.  Vegetable oil is tight around the world as Palm, Sun, and Canola are in short supply.  Soybean Oil is the cheapest and most plentiful alternative currently in the global vegetable oil market.  We expect demand to be strong even as prices charge to 40 cents a pound and higher.  Next major resistance level on weekly and month charts is 45 cents per pound.  Call me at 312-706-7610 or email cturner@danielstrading.com for trade ideas.  We have been buying futures, buying calls, selling puts, and bull spreads. I have an idea to get long bean oil for any trader or hedger.

If you are interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing, then click here to open an account.  If you are a speculative or online trader then please click here.

Weekly Continuous Soybean Oil Chart

South American Weather

South American weather over the next one to two weeks does not look great.  There will be rain in the northern and central parts of Brazil but southern Brazil and Argentina sill look dry. The area overall looks to have less precipitation than normal for the next two weeks.  This should continue to be positive for the CBOT.

If you are interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing, then click here to open an account.  If you are a speculative or online trader then please click here.

About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter

If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Turner’s Take Spec: https://www.turnerstake.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner

Filed Under: Turner's Take, Turner's Take Podcast

About Craig Turner

Craig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.

Primary Sidebar

Get Blog Updates

Subscribe to our blog and receive a daily email with information on market insights, trading tips & strategies.

Trustpilot

Footer

Site Navigation

  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • About Us
  • Customer Reviews
  • Contact Us
  • Futures Blog
  • Open a Futures Trading Account
  • Media Resources
  • Fund Your Account
  • Legal Notices

Contact Us

StoneX Financial Inc.
Daniels Trading Division
230 South LaSalle Suite 10-500
Chicago, IL 60604
+1.312.706.7600 Local / Int'l
+1.800.800.3840 Toll-Free
+1.312.706.7605 Fax

Connect with Us

Trustpilot
Risk Disclosure
  • Risk Disclosure
  • Privacy Policy
  • California Residents Privacy Notice
  • Terms of Use
  • Back to top
 

Loading Comments...
 

You must be logged in to post a comment.