Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 254
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!
The USDA’s November 2020 WASDE was bullish for corn and soybeans. Stocks are tight for soybeans and getting snug for corn. In the podcast we go over the possibilities of ending stocks for both corn and soybeans and expected price ranges. We also talk about South American weather and how current grain and oilseed prices could influence acres this spring. If you want to know more then make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast
If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free! You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take.
Nov 2020 WASDE Bullish
The WASDE was bullish for both corn and soybeans. Corn yields decreased to 175.8 bpa and exports increase 350mm. The result was old crop corn ending stocks are now 1.7 billion and the stock/usage ratio is 11.5%. South America weather becomes even more important to make sure global exporters don’t run out of corn this spring.
The USDA reduced soybean yields too but did not touch demand. Yield declined to 50.7 bpa and ending stocks are now 190mm bushels. The stocks/usage is 4.9%. This is tight and soybeans deserve to be over $10 across the board. Below are my tables for both corn and soybeans
If you are interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing, then click here to open an account. If you are a speculative or online trader then please click here.
Corn Supply & Demand Scenarios
Below is my corn supply and demand table for old crop and new crop. At 1.7 billion old crop ending stocks and prices above $4 in all contracts, corn acres are likely to stay around the same levels. Below are new crop scenarios for 90, 91, and 92mm acres. Notice that at 90mm acres and a trend line yield of 180.5 the US corn ending stocks stay constant. The US needs to plant at least 90mm acres next year and anything above that build stocks year over year assuming a good crop out of S America (questionable at this point) and a trend line crop in the US in 2021. Prices should stay around or above $4 for at least the next few months. $4.50 corn is possible if South America loses yield during this strong La Nina period.
Soybean Supply & Demand Scenarios
Soybean ending stocks at 190 is tight! Old crop deserves to be over $11 and new crop deserves to be over $10. South American weather is critical during a strong La Nina planting and growing season. Prices need to stay elevated in order for farmers to plan 6 to 9mm more soybean acres this spring. Below is my soybean table scenarios for next year. At 89mm acres and a trend line yield, the US loses another 35mm from ending stocks year-over-year. The US needs at least 90mm and a trend line yield to keep ending stocks at the same level next year. That is assuming S America has an average crop, which is far from a certainty at the moment. Even if the US plants 92mm acres, a 9mm increase, ending stocks just barely get back to 300mm.
Soybeans are bullish and will continue to trade over $10 until the summer. I think “beans in the teens” are possible if the strong La Nina in South America reduces soybean yields and production.
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 email@example.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Turner’s Take Spec: https://www.turnerstake.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Subscribe to Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast
Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast - Turner’s Take is a complimentary weekly market commentary newsletter that covers the Grain, Livestock and Energy futures spread markets using fundamental, technical and seasonal analysis.
This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.
This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.
Trade recommendations and profit/loss calculations may not include commissions and fees. Please consult your broker for details based on your trading arrangement and commission setup.
You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the "risk disclosure" webpage accessed at www.DanielsTrading.com at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any third-party trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.