Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 252
Podcast: Play in new window | Download
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS | Subscribe to Turner's Take Podcast
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!
New Podcast
This week we go over our thoughts on wheat for the rest of this year and 2021. Wheat will most likely be a follower of corn and soybeans. We see SRW stocks building next year while HRW stocks declining. KC could trade over Chicago wheat in the 2021-2022 marketing year. Currently front month KC is 60 yo 70 cents under Chicago. We can KC eventually trade over Chicago in 2021. If you want to know more then make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast
If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free! You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take.
Wheat
For the 2021-22 marketing year we see SRW wheat acres 6mm and HRW acres about 21.5mm acres. That is an increase of almost 1mm SRW wheat acres but HRW stays about the same. The increase in acres for the Chicago contract should bring soft red winter wheat ending stocks up to around 135mm bushels, which increases stock/usage from 38% to 45%. This will most likely be a bearish factor for SRW (Chicago) Wheat.
HRW (KC) will most likely see a draw on stocks. A few years ago stock/usage for HRW wheat was over 60%. Now we see it about 35% for the 2021-2022 marketing year. If corn and soybeans stay elevated (above $4 and $10 respectively), it is possible KC wheat could be $6 and Chicago in the mid $5s.
Our best bet for wheat in 2021 is KC gaining on Chicago. After years of burdensome KC stocks and tighter Chi stocks, we see that trend reversing. Right now Dec KC trade 60 to 70 cents under Chicago. We think the July 21 spread can get close to parity and the Dec 21 spreads have KC eventually 20 cents over Chicago.
If you are interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing, then click here to open an account. If you are a speculative or online trader then please click here.
Dec 2020 KC vs Chicago Wheat (OLD CROP)
July 2021 KC vs Chicago (NEW CROP)
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Turner’s Take Spec: https://www.turnerstake.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Subscribe to Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast
Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast - Turner’s Take is a complimentary weekly market commentary newsletter that covers the Grain, Livestock and Energy futures spread markets using fundamental, technical and seasonal analysis.
Risk Disclosure
THIS MATERIAL IS CONVEYED AS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING INTO A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION.
THIS MATERIAL HAS BEEN PREPARED BY A DANIELS TRADING BROKER WHO PROVIDES RESEARCH MARKET COMMENTARY AND TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS AS PART OF HIS OR HER SOLICITATION FOR ACCOUNTS AND SOLICITATION FOR TRADES; HOWEVER, DANIELS TRADING DOES NOT MAINTAIN A RESEARCH DEPARTMENT AS DEFINED IN CFTC RULE 1.71. DANIELS TRADING, ITS PRINCIPALS, BROKERS AND EMPLOYEES MAY TRADE IN DERIVATIVES FOR THEIR OWN ACCOUNTS OR FOR THE ACCOUNTS OF OTHERS. DUE TO VARIOUS FACTORS (SUCH AS RISK TOLERANCE, MARGIN REQUIREMENTS, TRADING OBJECTIVES, SHORT TERM VS. LONG TERM STRATEGIES, TECHNICAL VS. FUNDAMENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS, AND OTHER FACTORS) SUCH TRADING MAY RESULT IN THE INITIATION OR LIQUIDATION OF POSITIONS THAT ARE DIFFERENT FROM OR CONTRARY TO THE OPINIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS CONTAINED THEREIN.
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES CONTRACTS OR COMMODITY OPTIONS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL, AND THEREFORE INVESTORS SHOULD UNDERSTAND THE RISKS INVOLVED IN TAKING LEVERAGED POSITIONS AND MUST ASSUME RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH SUCH INVESTMENTS AND FOR THEIR RESULTS.
TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS AND PROFIT/LOSS CALCULATIONS MAY NOT INCLUDE COMMISSIONS AND FEES. PLEASE CONSULT YOUR BROKER FOR DETAILS BASED ON YOUR TRADING ARRANGEMENT AND COMMISSION SETUP.
YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES. YOU SHOULD READ THE "RISK DISCLOSURE" WEBPAGE ACCESSED AT WWW.DANIELSTRADING.COM AT THE BOTTOM OF THE HOMEPAGE. DANIELS TRADING IS NOT AFFILIATED WITH NOR DOES IT ENDORSE ANY TRADING SYSTEM, NEWSLETTER OR OTHER SIMILAR SERVICE. DANIELS TRADING DOES NOT GUARANTEE OR VERIFY ANY PERFORMANCE CLAIMS MADE BY SUCH SYSTEMS OR SERVICE.
GLOBAL ASSET ADVISORS, LLC (“GAA”) (DBA: DANIELS TRADING, TOP THIRD AG MARKETING AND FUTURES ONLINE) IS AN INTRODUCING BROKER TO GAIN CAPITAL GROUP, LLC (GCG) A FUTURES COMMISSION MERCHANT AND RETAIL FOREIGN EXCHANGE DEALER. GAA AND GCG ARE WHOLLY OWNED SUBSIDIARIES OF STONEX GROUP INC. (NASDAQ:SNEX) THE ULTIMATE PARENT COMPANY.
