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US Dollar: Buy or Sell?

by Frank Kaberna| Tips & Strategies

The path for USD has been rocky since its highs of mid-March, but the degree of rockiness depends on the path you’re taking. Continued complications around Brexit have now sent the pound (GBP) lower against the dollar on the year, while the euro’s (EUR) take on this news has been mostly bullish. Then there’s the yen (JPY) that is trying to find out what exactly Japan’s new prime minister, Yoshihide Suga, might mean for the BOJ.

EURUSD,JPYUSD,GBPUSD
Source: dxFeed Index Services (https://indexit.dxfeed.com)

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Euro-Pound Push and Pull

If the trend around Brexit continues, then the pound and euro will cancel each other out and leave little in the way of a US Dollar reaction; and the same goes for this one-off news story that’s specific to Japan and its currency. So what will move the dollar?

Small US Dollar
Source: dxFeed Index Services (https://indexit.dxfeed.com)

What Will Move the Dollar?

Interest rates are still hugging 0%, which makes the next move either into negative territory or higher to normal ranges. Those thinking the former is in play might look at a bearish Small US Dollar (SFX) futures position, while those in the latter group could employ their ideas by trading the dollar from the long side. Finally, the upcoming election creates potential for USD movement. The election of Donald Trump, a republican, on November 8, 2016, was met by a 1% rally in the dollar the following day and a 6% rise for the rest of the year. SFX could see some volatility as November nears.

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About Frank Kaberna

Frank Kaberna is the head content strategist at the Small Exchange. He produces everything from brochures to videos that inform on the Small Exchange’s products. After earning a mathematics degree from the University of Michigan, Frank traded interest rates at the Chicago Board of Trade. He then worked on the tastytrade Network as a content producer and on-air talent before landing at the Small Exchange.

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