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Home / Futures Blog / Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast | Stocks, Metals, Livestock, and Grains

Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast | Stocks, Metals, Livestock, and Grains

September 1, 2020 by Craig Turner

Turner's Take Podcast

Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 246

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In this podcast we go over our thought in the equity, metals, grain, and livestock markets.  We like buying the dips in the S&P, silver, and gold.  The WASDE in September could be a little bearish against expectations for corn and soybeans.  We also like cattle over hogs heading into the fall/winter.  Make sure you take a listen to this latest Turner’s Take Podcast!

If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free!  You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take.

Emini S&P 500

I’ve always said the stock market tends to be “long only”.  That is not 100% accurate but there is usually only a 15% short interest in the equities markets, which means the the other 85% is long.  When you also consider the Fed and the US Government will enact policies and stimulus for the benefit of the market, it is hard to be bearish for any extended period of time.

I still like buying the dips but at 3500 the S&P 500 looks a little overvalued. I’m not one to short the stock market but I’ll be willing to by the dip. The election is not too far off and that event tends to put some volatility in equities.  The last time we had a Presidential election the moves were large to both sides.

If you are interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing, then click here to open an account.  If you are a speculative or online trader then please click here. 

S&P 500 Chart

Gold & Silver

The Fed recently came out and said they are more concerned about unemployment than inflation.  That is good for those who make up the 10% unemployment rate in the United States.  It is not great for the value of the US Dollar and that is why we continue to like gold and silver.  We expect the Fed and the US government to provide more stimulus for citizens and the economy, but we don’t that happens until after the election. It is rare for the Fed to act before an election and I can’t see the Republicans and Democrats agreeing on anything between now and November 3rd. I like buying the dips.  I would use weakness in Sept and Oct to build a position for later this year.

If you are interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing, then click here to open an account.  If you are a speculative or online trader then please click here. 

Dec Gold

Grains & Oilseeds

We were filled selling 20% of new crop soybeans at $9.50.  Turner’s Take Ag Marketing is now 50% sold for expected production at an average price of $9.55 basis Nov futures.  The newsletter also has an existing order to sell 10% of 2021 soybeans at $9.50 basis Nov 2021 futures

I expect corn and soybeans to trade in a range between now and the WASDE.  The market has priced in a good bit of yield loss in both corn and beans.  It is important to note the USDA historically tends to make small decreases in yield changes from Aug to Sept during dry months.  We could see a bearish surprise against expectations in the Sept 11 WASDE.  We’ll be looking to buy puts ahead of the report.

*Keep an eye on the 200 Day MA (green line) for Dec Corn.  The market has not been able to close above the 200 day.  For this to happen the trade needs to believe corn yields are 174 or lower and carryout is below 2.0 billion.

If you are interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing, then click here to open an account.  If you are a speculative or online trader then please click here. 

Dec Corn

Livestock

Hogs have rallied as of late due to strong exports and cash prices but there is a lot of supply coming to the market.  Fall and winter also tend to be bearish periods seasonally for lean hogs.  Cattle on the other hand has been coming down but we see demand picking up for the 4th quarter and supplies getting tighter into the end of the year and Q1 of 2021.  In the short term we are bearish livestock and the play is to sell hogs. In the long term we like cattle and will be looking to buy Dec or Feb LC on the breaks.

If you are interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing, then click here to open an account.  If you are a speculative or online trader then please click here. 

About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter

If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!

Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com
Turner’s Take Spec: https://www.turnerstake.com
Twitter: @Turners_Take

Contact Craig Turner

Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast

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Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast - Turner’s Take is a complimentary weekly market commentary newsletter that covers the Grain, Livestock and Energy futures spread markets using fundamental, technical and seasonal analysis.

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Risk Disclosure

This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.

This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.

Trade recommendations and profit/loss calculations may not include commissions and fees. Please consult your broker for details based on your trading arrangement and commission setup.

You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the "risk disclosure" webpage accessed at www.DanielsTrading.com at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any third-party trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.

Filed Under: Turner's Take, Turner's Take Podcast

About Craig Turner

Craig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.

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Risk Disclosure

This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.

This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.

Trade recommendations and profit/loss calculations may not include commissions and fees. Please consult your broker for details based on your trading arrangement and commission setup.

You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the "risk disclosure" webpage accessed at www.DanielsTrading.com at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any third-party trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.

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