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Home / Futures Blog / Turner’s Take Podcast | Corn and Soybean Yields Retreating

Turner’s Take Podcast | Corn and Soybean Yields Retreating

August 25, 2020 by Craig Turner

Turner's Take Podcast

Play Turner’s Take Podcast Episode 245

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In this podcast we go over why corn and soybean yields are coming down and what that means for prices.  First we look at new crop corn and the range we expect Dec 2020 corn to trade between now and Thanksgiving. Then we go into our reasons why farmers should start pricing/hedging the Dec 2021 corn contract.  Soybeans have the potential to rally another 30 cents IF the weather stays hot and dry.  Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take.

If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free!  You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take.

Corn Supply & Demand

Corn has rallied over 30 cents since the last WASDE report.  The derecho wind damage in IA started the rally and now crop conditions are coming down due to widespread heat and dryness throughout the Midwest.  A month ago we thought there would be a record crop.  Now we are talking about how low yields will drop off in the coming weeks.  I have seen ranges of 175 to 179 lately.  Carryout numbers range between 2.2 and 2.5 billion.  That implies corn trades in a range of $3.30 to $3.65 if conditions can stabilize.  There is rain in the forecast later this week and next week.  Temperatures will cool down in September.  The US will still have a big crop but not record large.

Corn has major resistance around $3.65.  A close above that level could lead to prices trading another leg higher.  For that to happen the trade needs to think yields are sub 174 and carryout is heading below 2.0 billion bushels.

If you are interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing, then click here to open an account.  If you are a speculative or online trader then please click here. 

Soybean Supply & Demand

Soybean crop ratings came down 3% to 69% GD/EX and traders think they will come down again next week.  Soybeans need rain in August and much of the Midwest has received little to no rain in the past two to three weeks.  Yields are coming down in the Sept WASDE.  If yield is 51.5 then ending stocks are in the mid 400s.  If yield comes back to trendline (50 bpa) then ending stocks will be projected just above 300mm bushels.  In that scenario Nov Soybeans could rally to $9.50.  A 300mm carryout also sets us Nov 2021 for runs at $10s during the a South American soybean weather market.

Nov Soybeans has major resistance around $9.25.  A close above that level could lead to prices rallying another leg higher. For soybeans to rally above $9.50 the market needs to believe yields could be sub trend (below 50 bpa).

If you are interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing, then click here to open an account.  If you are a speculative or online trader then please click here. 

About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter

If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!

Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com
Turner’s Take Spec: https://www.turnerstake.com
Twitter: @Turners_Take

Contact Craig Turner

Risk Disclosure

The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI does business as Daniels Trading/Top Third/Futures Online. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI.

Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.

© 2023 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved

Filed Under: Turner's Take, Turner's Take Podcast

About Craig Turner

Craig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.

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Risk Disclosure

The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI does business as Daniels Trading/Top Third/Futures Online. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI.

Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.

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