
Play Turner’s Take Podcast Episode 243
Podcast: Play in new window | Download
Subscribe: RSS | Subscribe to Turner's Take Podcast
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!
If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free! You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take.
New Podcast
The August WASDE increased corn yields to 181.8 bpa and soybeans to 53.3 bpa. Corn was close to the estimates but soybeans were a bearish beat. Corn ended up 3 cents higher and soybeans were 10 cents higher. We see Dec corn trading between $3.00 and $3.35 and Nov soybeans between $8.40 and $9.00. In our podcast today we go over the reasoning for these price ranges in detail.
Aug WASDE Raises Yields
Corn was up 3 cents today even though the report was slightly bearish. A 2.7 billion ending stock suggests Dec Corn eventually trades $3.00. We expect corn to chop around as market tries to determine the extent of the damage in IA and to see if there is additional Chinese corn buying. Estimates are IA loses a net 50mm to 150mm bushels and I doubt China buys a whole lot of corn ahead of their own harvest. Bulls can make the case ending stocks are eventually 2.5 billion but the bears will argue “big crops get bigger”. Odds are the next couple of WASDE reports still have ending stocks in the 2.6 to 2.7 billion range.
Traders should note corn rarely puts in a seasonal low in the second week of August. We see corn drifting lower in the last two weeks of August. Sept Corn could trade $3 by First Notice Day. We think Dec Corn likely bottoms out around the Sept WASDE around speculation and confirmation of another increase to corn yield. I like buying Dec corn in mid September as long as yields are only a bushel or two higher than the report today.
Until then corn will struggle to break out above $3.30 and then $3.35 without confirmation of widespread crop damage in IA or new Chinese corn buying.
Soybeans most likely trade in range with $8.90 and $9 being strong resistance levels. If current weather forecasts are correct the soybean crop will get bigger, ending stocks could swell to 700mm bushels, and a harvest low could be $8.20 to $8.40. Rallies to $8.90/$9.00 should be sold.
If you are interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing, then click here to open an account. If you are a speculative or online trader then please click here.
Corn Supply & Demand Scenarios
Soybean Supply & Demand Scenarios
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!
Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com
Turner’s Take Spec: https://www.turnerstake.com
Twitter: @Turners_Take
Risk Disclosure
The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI does business as Daniels Trading/Top Third/Futures Online. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
© 2023 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved
You must be logged in to post a comment.