Play Turner’s Take Podcast Episode 243
Podcast: Play in new window | Download
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS | Subscribe to Turner's Take Podcast
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!
If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free! You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take.
New Podcast
The August WASDE increased corn yields to 181.8 bpa and soybeans to 53.3 bpa. Corn was close to the estimates but soybeans were a bearish beat. Corn ended up 3 cents higher and soybeans were 10 cents higher. We see Dec corn trading between $3.00 and $3.35 and Nov soybeans between $8.40 and $9.00. In our podcast today we go over the reasoning for these price ranges in detail.
Aug WASDE Raises Yields
Corn was up 3 cents today even though the report was slightly bearish. A 2.7 billion ending stock suggests Dec Corn eventually trades $3.00. We expect corn to chop around as market tries to determine the extent of the damage in IA and to see if there is additional Chinese corn buying. Estimates are IA loses a net 50mm to 150mm bushels and I doubt China buys a whole lot of corn ahead of their own harvest. Bulls can make the case ending stocks are eventually 2.5 billion but the bears will argue “big crops get bigger”. Odds are the next couple of WASDE reports still have ending stocks in the 2.6 to 2.7 billion range.
Traders should note corn rarely puts in a seasonal low in the second week of August. We see corn drifting lower in the last two weeks of August. Sept Corn could trade $3 by First Notice Day. We think Dec Corn likely bottoms out around the Sept WASDE around speculation and confirmation of another increase to corn yield. I like buying Dec corn in mid September as long as yields are only a bushel or two higher than the report today.
Until then corn will struggle to break out above $3.30 and then $3.35 without confirmation of widespread crop damage in IA or new Chinese corn buying.
Soybeans most likely trade in range with $8.90 and $9 being strong resistance levels. If current weather forecasts are correct the soybean crop will get bigger, ending stocks could swell to 700mm bushels, and a harvest low could be $8.20 to $8.40. Rallies to $8.90/$9.00 should be sold.
If you are interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing, then click here to open an account. If you are a speculative or online trader then please click here.
Corn Supply & Demand Scenarios
Soybean Supply & Demand Scenarios
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!
Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com
Turner’s Take Spec: https://www.turnerstake.com
Twitter: @Turners_Take
Subscribe to Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast
Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast - Turner’s Take is a complimentary weekly market commentary newsletter that covers the Grain, Livestock and Energy futures spread markets using fundamental, technical and seasonal analysis.
Risk Disclosure
This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.
This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.
Trade recommendations and profit/loss calculations may not include commissions and fees. Please consult your broker for details based on your trading arrangement and commission setup.
You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the "risk disclosure" webpage accessed at www.DanielsTrading.com at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any third-party trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.
