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New Podcast
In this week’s podcast we talk Moderna’s positive vaccine test results and how that could effect the markets later this year and into 2021. We also talk about the grain markets and what to make of the rumors of China buying SRW Wheat from the US. We wrap up the podcast by reviewing some of our positions in the livestock market. Make sure you take a list to Turner’s Take Podcast!
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Moderna
The macro markets are higher on new that Moderna’s corona virus vaccine is ready for the final phase of testing. The first phase was tested on 45 volunteers and all of they had boosted immunity similar to people who had overcome the disease. The final phase starts at the end of July and will be on 30,000 people. It will take a few months to get the final results but there is hope a vaccine could be ready by the end of the year or early 2021. This development should be considered bullish for equity and commodity markets overall.
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Emini S&P 500
Wheat
September SRW (Chicago) Wheat just closed over the 200 day moving average. Production issues in Russia first caused the rally and now we are hearing rumors of China buying US SRW Wheat. Combine all of that with the large fund short position and you get the chart action below.
Lost production in the Black Sea area will most likely lead to Russia bringing back wheat export quotas for their new crop. Weather in Argentina and Australia will be paid closer attention as their crops now mean more due to the losses in Russia. If China really is a buyer of wheat then SRW could test the highs from earlier this year around $5.80 in the front month.
I’m usually a big believer in the saying “wheat rallies deserve to be sold” but this one could have some legs. I don’t want to chase this rally higher because it is very hard to trade rumors. If we do get to the old highs and start to run out of momentum, we will look to get short. The world and US has plenty of wheat on hand. Supply side rallies tend to be violent but short lived.
Day and swing traders can look to buy the breaks and use the 200 day moving average as a support level. Position traders should stay patient and wait for the reversal.
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Continuous SRW Wheat
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Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
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Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast - Turner’s Take is a complimentary weekly market commentary newsletter that covers the Grain, Livestock and Energy futures spread markets using fundamental, technical and seasonal analysis.
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