Play Turner’s Take Podcast Episode 237
Podcast: Play in new window | Download
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | RSS | Subscribe to Turner's Take Podcast
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!
New Podcast
This week we go over our thoughts on coronavirus and what a second wave could mean to the macro markets. We also talk about the upcoming Planted Acres and Quarterly Stocks report to be released on June 30, at 11 am central. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take podcast.
If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free! You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take.
Grain & Oilseeds
The Planted Acres and Quarterly Stocks report will be released tomorrow at 11 am. The market is looking for a reduction in corn acres. The USDA reported acres at 97 million in March and many in the trade are looking for 94 million to 96 million tomorrow.
Below is my supply and demand table for new crop corn acres and yield scenarios. My bullish estimate is 94mm acres planted and a 175 yield. That puts corn ending stocks at 2.5 billion and corn is still below $3.50 basis Dec futures during harvest lows. The good news is that scenario lets corn rally 20 cents and the lows are in for the year.
The market neutral scenario is 95mm acres and trend line yields of 178.5 bpa. Ending stocks are just under 3 billion and it argues for corn to test $3 by harvest. The bearish scenario is 96mm acres and a 180 bpa national average. In this case ending stocks are still around 3.3 billion and prices are sub $3 during harvest basis Dec 2020 futures.
Once this report comes out I think trades quickly move onto the weather.
Corn Supply and Demand with Acreage and Yield Scenarios
If you are interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing, then click here to open an account. If you are a speculative or online trader then please click here.
WEATHER
The forecasts for the next two weeks turned hotter and drier over the weekend. Below is the 8-14 day temperature and precipitation maps from the NOAA. The weather will be hotter than normal with average precipitation. The next four to six weeks is when corn and soybeans are made. Corn will be pollinating and soybeans will be blooming/flowering. These are critical times for corn and soybean production and the market will add weather premium if the forecasts stay hot and get drier for extended periods of time.
NOAA 8-14 Day Temperature Forecast Map
NOAA 8-14 Day Precipitation Temperature Map
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!
Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com
Turner’s Take Spec: https://www.turnerstake.com
Twitter: @Turners_Take
Risk Disclosure
The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI does business as Daniels Trading/Top Third/Futures Online. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
© 2022 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved
You must be logged in to post a comment.