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Home / Futures Blog / Turner’s Take Podcast: June WASDE Thoughts

Turner’s Take Podcast: June WASDE Thoughts

June 11, 2020 by Craig Turner

Turner's Take Podcast

Play Turner’s Take Podcast Episode 235

https://media.blubrry.com/twigcast/p/media.blubrry.com/inside_commodity_futures/p/content.blubrry.com/inside_commodity_futures/icf_2020_06_11_episode_0235.mp3

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The stock market is down 5% and crude oil is down 7%. A potential 2nd wave of COVID-19 in the US is the culprit.  We also dive into the WASDE and what a weather rally for corn can really look like.  If the weather stays hot and dry for a few week it could cause some major issues with the crop this year.  We talk about why we like being long July corn for at least the next week even if we are already short Dec corn.  Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!

If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free!  You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take.

WASDE

The WASDE was fairly neutral for corn and soybeans. Below are the US and World estimates for both old crop and new crop.  Wheat was the biggest surprise as 2020-2021 global stocks are expected to rise 8.6 million metric tons.  That is not good for US export prospects.

Corn and soybeans came in as expected.  Weather will be a driving force for both markets in the next few weeks.  The June 30 report will have updated new crop acres and the quarterly stocks report.  There is potential for significant price moves over the next few weeks between the weather and the month end reports.

In the podcast and weather section below I go over buying July corn for speculators and for producers who are heavily hedged/sold in new crop.  Please call me at 312-706-7610 if you want to get long some old crop corn just in case we get a real weather market over the next few weeks.

If you are interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing, then click here to open an account.  If you are a speculative or online trader then please click here. 

US ESTIMATES

WORLD ESTIMATES

If you are interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing, then click here to open an account.  If you are a speculative or online trader then please click here. 

WEATHER

Corn will be very sensitive to the weather the next few weeks. Below is the 6-10 day and 8-14 day precipitation probability maps from the NOAA.  It looks like it will be hot and dry next week but then rains coming back in the 8-14 day period.  We could see corn rally if it is very hot and dry next week and not break until we actually get rain in the last 10 days of June.

Spec traders who want to play a weather rally might be able to make 5 or 10 cents in July corn depending on the weather next week.  Hedgers who are heavily short Dec 2020 or mostly sold in new crop can use July futures to hedge against sales over the next couple of weeks.  I like buying July against December for the next week or so. It all comes down to the weather.  As long as there is no ridge forming and we get wide spread precipitation, the crop will be fine. If it stays hot and dry for a few weeks the corn crop could have a lot of issues.

6-10 Day Precipitation NOAA

8-14 Day Precipitation NOAA

 

About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter

If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!

Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com
Turner’s Take Spec: https://www.turnerstake.com
Twitter: @Turners_Take

Contact Craig Turner

Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast

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Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast - Turner’s Take is a complimentary weekly market commentary newsletter that covers the Grain, Livestock and Energy futures spread markets using fundamental, technical and seasonal analysis.

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THIS MATERIAL IS CONVEYED AS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING INTO A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION.

THIS MATERIAL HAS BEEN PREPARED BY A DANIELS TRADING BROKER WHO PROVIDES RESEARCH MARKET COMMENTARY AND TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS AS PART OF HIS OR HER SOLICITATION FOR ACCOUNTS AND SOLICITATION FOR TRADES; HOWEVER, DANIELS TRADING DOES NOT MAINTAIN A RESEARCH DEPARTMENT AS DEFINED IN CFTC RULE 1.71. DANIELS TRADING, ITS PRINCIPALS, BROKERS AND EMPLOYEES MAY TRADE IN DERIVATIVES FOR THEIR OWN ACCOUNTS OR FOR THE ACCOUNTS OF OTHERS. DUE TO VARIOUS FACTORS (SUCH AS RISK TOLERANCE, MARGIN REQUIREMENTS, TRADING OBJECTIVES, SHORT TERM VS. LONG TERM STRATEGIES, TECHNICAL VS. FUNDAMENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS, AND OTHER FACTORS) SUCH TRADING MAY RESULT IN THE INITIATION OR LIQUIDATION OF POSITIONS THAT ARE DIFFERENT FROM OR CONTRARY TO THE OPINIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS CONTAINED THEREIN.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES CONTRACTS OR COMMODITY OPTIONS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL, AND THEREFORE INVESTORS SHOULD UNDERSTAND THE RISKS INVOLVED IN TAKING LEVERAGED POSITIONS AND MUST ASSUME RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH SUCH INVESTMENTS AND FOR THEIR RESULTS.

TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS AND PROFIT/LOSS CALCULATIONS MAY NOT INCLUDE COMMISSIONS AND FEES. PLEASE CONSULT YOUR BROKER FOR DETAILS BASED ON YOUR TRADING ARRANGEMENT AND COMMISSION SETUP.

YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES. YOU SHOULD READ THE "RISK DISCLOSURE" WEBPAGE ACCESSED AT WWW.DANIELSTRADING.COM AT THE BOTTOM OF THE HOMEPAGE. DANIELS TRADING IS NOT AFFILIATED WITH NOR DOES IT ENDORSE ANY TRADING SYSTEM, NEWSLETTER OR OTHER SIMILAR SERVICE. DANIELS TRADING DOES NOT GUARANTEE OR VERIFY ANY PERFORMANCE CLAIMS MADE BY SUCH SYSTEMS OR SERVICE.

GLOBAL ASSET ADVISORS, LLC (“GAA”) (DBA: DANIELS TRADING, TOP THIRD AG MARKETING AND FUTURES ONLINE) IS AN INTRODUCING BROKER TO GAIN CAPITAL GROUP, LLC (GCG) A FUTURES COMMISSION MERCHANT AND RETAIL FOREIGN EXCHANGE DEALER. GAA AND GCG ARE WHOLLY OWNED SUBSIDIARIES OF STONEX GROUP INC. (NASDAQ:SNEX) THE ULTIMATE PARENT COMPANY.

Filed Under: Turner's Take, Turner's Take Podcast

About Craig Turner

Craig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.

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Risk Disclosure

THIS MATERIAL IS CONVEYED AS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING INTO A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION.

THIS MATERIAL HAS BEEN PREPARED BY A DANIELS TRADING BROKER WHO PROVIDES RESEARCH MARKET COMMENTARY AND TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS AS PART OF HIS OR HER SOLICITATION FOR ACCOUNTS AND SOLICITATION FOR TRADES; HOWEVER, DANIELS TRADING DOES NOT MAINTAIN A RESEARCH DEPARTMENT AS DEFINED IN CFTC RULE 1.71. DANIELS TRADING, ITS PRINCIPALS, BROKERS AND EMPLOYEES MAY TRADE IN DERIVATIVES FOR THEIR OWN ACCOUNTS OR FOR THE ACCOUNTS OF OTHERS. DUE TO VARIOUS FACTORS (SUCH AS RISK TOLERANCE, MARGIN REQUIREMENTS, TRADING OBJECTIVES, SHORT TERM VS. LONG TERM STRATEGIES, TECHNICAL VS. FUNDAMENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS, AND OTHER FACTORS) SUCH TRADING MAY RESULT IN THE INITIATION OR LIQUIDATION OF POSITIONS THAT ARE DIFFERENT FROM OR CONTRARY TO THE OPINIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS CONTAINED THEREIN.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES CONTRACTS OR COMMODITY OPTIONS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL, AND THEREFORE INVESTORS SHOULD UNDERSTAND THE RISKS INVOLVED IN TAKING LEVERAGED POSITIONS AND MUST ASSUME RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH SUCH INVESTMENTS AND FOR THEIR RESULTS.

TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS AND PROFIT/LOSS CALCULATIONS MAY NOT INCLUDE COMMISSIONS AND FEES. PLEASE CONSULT YOUR BROKER FOR DETAILS BASED ON YOUR TRADING ARRANGEMENT AND COMMISSION SETUP.

YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES. YOU SHOULD READ THE "RISK DISCLOSURE" WEBPAGE ACCESSED AT WWW.DANIELSTRADING.COM AT THE BOTTOM OF THE HOMEPAGE. DANIELS TRADING IS NOT AFFILIATED WITH NOR DOES IT ENDORSE ANY TRADING SYSTEM, NEWSLETTER OR OTHER SIMILAR SERVICE. DANIELS TRADING DOES NOT GUARANTEE OR VERIFY ANY PERFORMANCE CLAIMS MADE BY SUCH SYSTEMS OR SERVICE.

GLOBAL ASSET ADVISORS, LLC (“GAA”) (DBA: DANIELS TRADING, TOP THIRD AG MARKETING AND FUTURES ONLINE) IS AN INTRODUCING BROKER TO GAIN CAPITAL GROUP, LLC (GCG) A FUTURES COMMISSION MERCHANT AND RETAIL FOREIGN EXCHANGE DEALER. GAA AND GCG ARE WHOLLY OWNED SUBSIDIARIES OF STONEX GROUP INC. (NASDAQ:SNEX) THE ULTIMATE PARENT COMPANY.

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