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The stock market is down 5% and crude oil is down 7%. A potential 2nd wave of COVID-19 in the US is the culprit. We also dive into the WASDE and what a weather rally for corn can really look like. If the weather stays hot and dry for a few week it could cause some major issues with the crop this year. We talk about why we like being long July corn for at least the next week even if we are already short Dec corn. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!
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WASDE
The WASDE was fairly neutral for corn and soybeans. Below are the US and World estimates for both old crop and new crop. Wheat was the biggest surprise as 2020-2021 global stocks are expected to rise 8.6 million metric tons. That is not good for US export prospects.
Corn and soybeans came in as expected. Weather will be a driving force for both markets in the next few weeks. The June 30 report will have updated new crop acres and the quarterly stocks report. There is potential for significant price moves over the next few weeks between the weather and the month end reports.
In the podcast and weather section below I go over buying July corn for speculators and for producers who are heavily hedged/sold in new crop. Please call me at 312-706-7610 if you want to get long some old crop corn just in case we get a real weather market over the next few weeks.
If you are interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing, then click here to open an account. If you are a speculative or online trader then please click here.
US ESTIMATES
WORLD ESTIMATES
If you are interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing, then click here to open an account. If you are a speculative or online trader then please click here.
WEATHER
Corn will be very sensitive to the weather the next few weeks. Below is the 6-10 day and 8-14 day precipitation probability maps from the NOAA. It looks like it will be hot and dry next week but then rains coming back in the 8-14 day period. We could see corn rally if it is very hot and dry next week and not break until we actually get rain in the last 10 days of June.
Spec traders who want to play a weather rally might be able to make 5 or 10 cents in July corn depending on the weather next week. Hedgers who are heavily short Dec 2020 or mostly sold in new crop can use July futures to hedge against sales over the next couple of weeks. I like buying July against December for the next week or so. It all comes down to the weather. As long as there is no ridge forming and we get wide spread precipitation, the crop will be fine. If it stays hot and dry for a few weeks the corn crop could have a lot of issues.
6-10 Day Precipitation NOAA
8-14 Day Precipitation NOAA
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
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Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com
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Twitter: @Turners_Take
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Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast - Turner’s Take is a complimentary weekly market commentary newsletter that covers the Grain, Livestock and Energy futures spread markets using fundamental, technical and seasonal analysis.
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