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Home / Futures Blog / Turner’s Take Podcast: HRW Wheat Leads CBOT Higher

Turner’s Take Podcast: HRW Wheat Leads CBOT Higher

November 12, 2019 by Craig Turner

Turner's Take Podcast

Play Turner’s Take Podcast Episode 208

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Today we talk about Trump’s speech at the Economic Club of New York and our thoughts on when Phase One of the trade deal might get done. We also go over the surprising rally in HRW wheat which is also helping corn.  Soybeans will be supported at $9.00 until we know more about the Trade Deal.  We wrap up the podcast with livestock and why we are still bullish lean hogs but feel cattle is due for a sell off.  Take a listen to the latest episode of Turner’s Take Podcast

Macro Markets

President Trump gave a speech today at the Economic Club of New York. The headlines will be about Trump berating the Fed about a lack of stimulus and lower interest rates. More importantly I think we are seeing the beginning of what Trump will campaign on, which is  the strength of the economy, low unemployment, and his tough stance on China.  If the economy is at the center of his reelection campaign, then he can’t look weak on trade.  He said if they don’t get a trade deal done then he is going to tariff just about everything he can on China.

Grain & Oilseeds

HRW Wheat (KC) is leading the markets higher as Dec KC Wheat closed over the 100 day moving average for the first time in months.  Dec KC closed up 15 cents to $4.38.  Dec 19 vs July 20 (old crop/new crop) is now at a 19 cent carry.  It was in the 40s over the summer and two weeks ago the carry was in the low 30s.  The cold weather is a threat to recently emerged winter wheat.  There is also a lot of acres that have not been planted yet.  Areas with soil temps below freezing will no be planted.  Funds were short 35K contract as of the last CoT.  This rally is led by fund short covering.

Crop Progress was released today and corn harvested is only 66% vs 68% expected.  There was minimal progress in the Dakotas and there is still a lot of corn to in the field.  Corn should be supported tonight and tomorrow.  Soybeans were 85% harvested vs 87% expected, also supportive for soybeans.  Winter Wheat conditions were 54% G/E vs expectations of 57%.  We should continue to see funds cover shorts in wheat.

Dec 19 vs July 20 HRW Wheat

Livestock

Hogs gapped higher on the open this morning as rumors swirled about China having another report of ASF in the northern part of their country.  This is the same area where the breakout started back in August of 2018.  We have not seen a story in the major news wires to confirm so it is still just a rumor.  If ture it t goes to show how difficult it is to contain ASF once it gets into the hog population.  I still like Feb Hogs.  If you don’t want to be long Feb futures I like bull call spreads, writing put spreads, and the the bull Feb vs April Hog futures spread.

Dec Live Cattle is hitting resistance at the 120 area.  While the futures are holding steady the spreads are starting to reverse. I like the Dec vs April bear spread. I think cattle overall is due for a break lower as we are up almost 25 pts since the Tyson fire.  The Dec vs April LC spread was a bear seasonal spread from MRCI. It is now past the optimal seasonal window but we think the move is starting later this year due to the post Tyson fire rally. Now that the market has recovered from the Tyson fire we think this spread continues to head lower.

Dec vs April Live Cattle

About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter

If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!

Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com
Turner’s Take Spec: https://www.turnerstake.com
Twitter: @Turners_Take

Contact Craig Turner

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Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast - Turner’s Take is a complimentary weekly market commentary newsletter that covers the Grain, Livestock and Energy futures spread markets using fundamental, technical and seasonal analysis.

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Risk Disclosure

This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.

This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.

Trade recommendations and profit/loss calculations may not include commissions and fees. Please consult your broker for details based on your trading arrangement and commission setup.

You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the "risk disclosure" webpage accessed at www.DanielsTrading.com at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any third-party trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.

Filed Under: Turner's Take, Turner's Take Podcast

About Craig Turner

Craig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.

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Risk Disclosure

This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.

This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.

Trade recommendations and profit/loss calculations may not include commissions and fees. Please consult your broker for details based on your trading arrangement and commission setup.

You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the "risk disclosure" webpage accessed at www.DanielsTrading.com at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any third-party trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.

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