Good afternoon friends
Crop progress was just released, you can find the results here.
- Corn is 66% harvested vs 85% on average and 83% last year. This number was slower than most were thinking we would be by weekend. States that lag big time are all up north. Everyone from the Dakotas to Michigan have a lot of work to do but even the “I” states are a couple of weeks behind in northern regions.
- Soybean harvest is 85% complete, this has to be a concern to the trade at some point. Areas North of I-80 are all under snow and states like North Dakota have nearly 25% of the crop still in the field. “I” states all have around 10% of the crop still in the field. I can’t imagine supply numbers threatened by this at some time down the road.
- Cotton is 62% harvested with Texas 50% complete. Everyone is on or ahead of pace outside of fringe states.
- Winter wheat plantings are 92% complete, right on the 5 year average. 78% is emerged, which could be driving the wheat trade higher in the near term. Conditions fell from 57% to 53% in the G/E category.
Just a quick review of a trade that closed near highs in feed grains. Oil-seeds were quiet today and Cotton and beans continue to trade with little flat price enthusiasm. The real move today came in the KC wheat, which is what corn bulls want to see. Markets touched the front month highs in June today, this is back when both contracts were nearly 50 cents higher. Bull spreading action at the front of both corn and KC wheat continues to be a theme. I had numerous conversations with folks in the trade today, some think its a genuine sign of demand combined with a tight-fisted farmer, others think its more of a function of the index roll which will conclude tomorrow. I can be convinced convinced otherwise, but KC has been the whipping post against corn and Chicago wheat for a while, it was only a matter of time before the tide pulled back. Regardless, the spread can move a heck of a lot more if bulls in KC continue to find a reason.
Subscribe to This Week In Grain
This Week In Grain - This Week in Grain (T.W.I.G.) is a weekly grain and oilseed commentary newsletter designed to keep grain market participants on the cutting edge, so they can hedge or speculate with more confidence and precision.
This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.
This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.
Trade recommendations and profit/loss calculations may not include commissions and fees. Please consult your broker for details based on your trading arrangement and commission setup.
You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the "risk disclosure" webpage accessed at www.DanielsTrading.com at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any third-party trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.