Good afternoon friends
Crop progress was just released, you can find the results here.
- Corn is 66% harvested vs 85% on average and 83% last year. This number was slower than most were thinking we would be by weekend. States that lag big time are all up north. Everyone from the Dakotas to Michigan have a lot of work to do but even the “I” states are a couple of weeks behind in northern regions.
- Soybean harvest is 85% complete, this has to be a concern to the trade at some point. Areas North of I-80 are all under snow and states like North Dakota have nearly 25% of the crop still in the field. “I” states all have around 10% of the crop still in the field. I can’t imagine supply numbers threatened by this at some time down the road.
- Cotton is 62% harvested with Texas 50% complete. Everyone is on or ahead of pace outside of fringe states.
- Winter wheat plantings are 92% complete, right on the 5 year average. 78% is emerged, which could be driving the wheat trade higher in the near term. Conditions fell from 57% to 53% in the G/E category.
Just a quick review of a trade that closed near highs in feed grains. Oil-seeds were quiet today and Cotton and beans continue to trade with little flat price enthusiasm. The real move today came in the KC wheat, which is what corn bulls want to see. Markets touched the front month highs in June today, this is back when both contracts were nearly 50 cents higher. Bull spreading action at the front of both corn and KC wheat continues to be a theme. I had numerous conversations with folks in the trade today, some think its a genuine sign of demand combined with a tight-fisted farmer, others think its more of a function of the index roll which will conclude tomorrow. I can be convinced convinced otherwise, but KC has been the whipping post against corn and Chicago wheat for a while, it was only a matter of time before the tide pulled back. Regardless, the spread can move a heck of a lot more if bulls in KC continue to find a reason.
Subscribe to This Week In Grain
This Week In Grain - This Week in Grain (T.W.I.G.) is a weekly grain and oilseed commentary newsletter designed to keep grain market participants on the cutting edge, so they can hedge or speculate with more confidence and precision.
The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI does business as Daniels Trading/Top Third/Futures Online. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.