• Skip to primary navigation
  • Skip to content
  • Skip to footer
StoneX®

Trade Futures, Spreads and Options with Confidence.

Top Navigation

  • Open a Futures Account
  • Sign Up
  • Log in
  • 1.800.800.3840

Primary Navigation Menu

  • About
    • Who We Are
    • Services
    • Risk Disclosure
    • COVID-19
  • Trade
    • Broker-Assisted
    • Self-Directed / Online
    • Request Pricing
  • Hedge
    • Ag Marketing Plan
    • WASDE Analysis
    • Grain Resources
    • Livestock / Dairy Resources
    • Request Pricing
  • Invest
    • Automated Strategies
    • Managed Futures
    • Request Pricing
  • Advisories
    • GENERAL / FUNDAMENTAL
      • DT Newsletter
      • Insider Market Advisory
      • Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast
    • TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
      • The Cullen Outlook
      • Data Feed Trade
      • Jarboe Trading Journal
      • Trade Spotlight
    • AG MARKETING
      • Cattleman’s Advisory
      • Technical Ag Knowledge
      • Turner’s Take Ag Marketing
    • THIRD-PARTY RESOURCES
      • CFRN
      • Moore Research Center, Inc. (MRCI)
      • OptionWorks®
      • TASMarketProfile.com
  • Education
    • CME Group Resource Center
    • CME Group Offers
    • Small Exchange Resources
    • Guides
    • Frequently Asked Questions
    • Order Entry Handbook
  • Blog
    • Futures 101
    • Ag Marketing
    • Tips & Strategies
    • Trading Advisories
  • Resources
    • Trading Software
    • Quotes and Charts
    • Futures Calendars
    • Contract Specifications
    • Margin Requirements
    • Futures Calculator
  • Accounts
    • Apply
    • Access My Account
    • Funding
  • Contact
 

Grain Market Outlook: 2019

March 5, 2019 by Daniels Trading| Ag Marketing

To say the very least, 2018 was a volatile year for grains and oilseeds. Tariffs, ethanol production, and global economic growth brought consistent participation to the markets. Some products rallied while others lagged, giving ag market participants all they could handle throughout the calendar year.

Moving forward, the grain market outlook for 2019 is dominated by many of the same fundamentals. There has been no resolution to the U.S.-China trade standoff, El Niño is projected to hit North America, and questions still surround ethanol as an energy source. Without a doubt, the grain and oilseed markets of 2019 will be as active as 2018, if not more so.

Grain Market Outlook for 2019: E-15, Tariffs, and El Niño

The ag markets are sensitive to a variety of fundamental factors, ranging from politics to the weather. An active hurricane season, U.S.-China tariff one-upmanship, and a shift in U.S. domestic energy policy were pivotal influences on grain and oilseed pricing in 2018. When developing a viable grain market outlook for 2019, these are once again the key issues facing the market.

Download our free guide, The Ultimate Guide to Hedging: How to Reduce Risk,  today!

Aside from these three factors, approval or denial of the USMCA trade deal covers the gamut of the ag markets. The bill has applications throughout the industry and will impact pricing of commodities top to bottom. It’s scheduled for U.S. Congressional debate and vote sometime in 2019. If you’re active in the ag markets, be sure to keep an eye on any developments surrounding USMCA.

Aside from USMCA, here are several additional key factors that will influence the grain market outlook for 2019:

  • Corn: When it comes to corn, the Trump administration’s push for year-around use of E-15 ethanol has many traders looking for booming demand in the coming 24 months. The December USDA WASDE report suggests that planted acreage will hold steady at 89.1 million acres in 2019-20, with ending stocks up modestly year-over-year. Given constant planted acreage and stocks, the potential for a late-2019 rally in response to boosted ethanol production is very real.
  • Wheat: The projected El Niño weather cycle for 2019 has many wheat market participants calling for reduced North American output. Increased snowfall and extreme spring storms are predicted, boosting moisture levels in wheat producing regions. Estimates dated November 2018 give an El Niño system a 55 percent to 60 percent chance of lasting through the end of spring. In the event that heavy snows and storm systems become the rule, a spike in pricing may be on tap for summer/fall 2019.
  • Soybeans: 2018 turned out to be a tough year for soybeans. The U.S.-China trade war fueled an intense tariff battle that swallowed up the bean market. Prices fell dramatically over the summer months, followed by a modest end-of-year rebound. In the event that the U.S. and China can strike a deal, this market may be poised for a rebound. If not, producers will continue to adjust their strategies, and values will fluctuate according to the geopolitical situation.

When it comes to grains and oilseeds, it’s always important to be aware of the calendar. This year is going to be especially sensitive because the 2020 U.S. Presidential election is due to kick off next January. While not a typical market driver, the election will have widespread ag implications, primarily the future of ethanol and international trade relations. If you’re hedging risk or speculating in ag futures, be sure to incorporate the evolving U.S. political situation into your 2020 grain market outlook.

Make 2019 Your Best Year Yet

Staying up-to-date on international relations, federal policies, and weather patterns is a nonstop chore. If you don’t have the time to sift through WASDE reports or read countless industry briefs, check out the DanielsAg mobile app. Featuring timely information and analysis from industry pros, the DanielsAg app can help you stay abreast of all things ag marketing.

The Ultimate Guide to Hedging: How to Reduce Risk

Filed Under: Ag Marketing

About Daniels Trading

Daniels Trading is division of StoneX Financial Inc. located in the heart of Chicago’s financial district. Established by renowned commodity trader Andy Daniels in 1995, Daniels Trading was built on a culture of trust committed to a mission of Independence, Objectivity and Reliability.

Risk Disclosure

The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI does business as Daniels Trading/Top Third/Futures Online. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI.

Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.

© 2023 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved

Subscribe To The Blog

Footer

Site Navigation

  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • About Us
  • Customer Reviews
  • Contact Us
  • Futures Blog
  • Open a Futures Trading Account
  • Media Resources
  • Fund Your Account
  • Legal Notices

Contact Us

StoneX Financial Inc.
Daniels Trading Division
230 South LaSalle Suite 10-500
Chicago, IL 60604
+1.312.706.7600 Local / Int'l
+1.800.800.3840 Toll-Free
+1.312.706.7605 Fax

Connect with Us

Trustpilot
Risk Disclosure

The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI does business as Daniels Trading/Top Third/Futures Online. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI.

Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.

© 2023 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved

  • Risk Disclosure
  • Privacy Policy
  • California Residents Privacy Notice
  • Terms of Use
  • Back to top