I discuss the current market fundamental headlines including:
Trade negotiations with China
This hot topic has been a main topic for this webinar for a few months now: trade negotiations with China. There’s still nothing official yet on an agreement but both countries are holding off any additional tariffs until their March 1st deadline. So we still have time on that but for the most part it’s been seen as more promising than not as of lately.
US Corporate Earnings
Corporate earnings have been positive for the most part. This has been helping equities move higher. The Fed left interest rates unchanged last month and had a tone of speaking afterwards that was a lot less hawkish compared to what they were 2018. It’s kind of setting the tone for 2019, in which the stock market is definitely going to like to see a less hawkish Fed and fewer rate hikes in the nearby future.
The lack of negative headlines in January, I think, is certainly in favor of the bullish camp. But there is just not enough major news to kind of keep the market from continuing to move higher. I think that’s going to be one of the main reasons we didn’t see much pull back in January with such a strong month, especially starting the year out. We’ll see if there’s any major headlines that can change that for February.
Tonight’s State of the Union from President Trump
Trump is addressing the State of the Union tonight and will probably discuss the trade war, border control, “the wall” if you will, and I’m sure there will be some kind of a discussions about different stocks and which stocks will benefit from his address tonight.
Due to data delays resulting from the government shutdown, we did not review the Commitment of Traders report today. In addition, I discuss why no major negative headlines and a dovish Fed is bullish for the equity markets longer-term.
Andrew discussed today’s bullish price action overall and the different technical setups he outlined in today’s session in the MDA Premium Room. Andrew outlined the bullish and bearish trade opportunities mentioned earlier today for day trading setups.
The 60 minute profile level is the one that updates most frequently because it’s based on 60 minute time frames. We focus in on seeing what’s taking place in the equity sector and we’re seeing bullishness across the board.
There was kind of an uptick in the market today with a kind of pull back around the point of control: the fair auction value on 60 minute profiles. It’s putting us in a prime three set up, a NASDAQ term coined by Andrew Pawielski that indicates there has been an upward move, breaking all the key levels, followed by either new levels forming or pulling back maybe quarterly and making another run to the upside. This would be a momentum entry or potential pivot entry on value area lows.
Mini Dow (DIJA)
At the 60 minute levels, we’re seeing 25,343 as the upside box at value area high. If the price breaks above that given this bullish scenario, we can see the momentum breakouts through that level. The price is comfortable at 25,288, the 60 minute point of control. That could be one of the highest prices traded today. We’ll rotate around that and if we do pull back to around 25,260 / 250 area, that would indicate a pivot long opportunity.
In the top box from the 60 minute time frame, we see 2,734 and a quarter roughly. Longer term we’re looking to follow this upward trend and for pivot long areas or swing lows. Then watch out for momentum entries through high value areas on the top boxes on the scanner. This helps eliminate one side of the market to focus on long opportunities. Of course, shorts exist out there in the day trade and they can develop, but we try to stay with the trend once it’s developed.
There appear to be some overbought tendencies on this market with navigator and what we want to highlight today is a pull back as we work lower through the 27s. The charts indicate some volume areas that could be broken here and pull back; look for the long sides on this.
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