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HOLIDAY MARKETS
The holiday markets have been all over the place during the past few trading sessions. Today we are getting a relief rally and it remains to be seen if this is a true reversal. The problem is the low volume. One can make the argument we probably went down to much during low volume last week and Christmas Eve and now we are coming up too fast on low volume today. That is how it is around the holidays if the market is volatile.
Below are charts for the S&P and Crude Oil. You can make the case those markets are reversing. We spent 1 day in Bear Market territory for the S&P 500. On the podcast I talk about my time at the Stock Exchange and Goldman Sachs when I was in my 20s. No one senior who made big money decisions was in the office the last week or two of the year (same for the last two weeks in August). It will be interesting to see how the markets trade on Wednesday, January 2nd. Until them we are likely to see the volatility continue.
Finally – a quick word about the grain markets. The government shutdown is going to put a hamper on corn, wheat, and soybeans. Those markets either need weather issues to go higher or demand. The USDA confirms demand by their export sales announcements. I am not 100% sure if that part of the USDA is considered “essential”. We may have to wait a while to hear about exports and sales. That is not good for the bulls.
Emini S&P 500
Crude Oil
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If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!
While the podcast does not have specific actionable trading recommendations, we do publish them in Turner’s Take Market Alert for spec traders and Turner’s Take Ag Marketing for hedgers. Want to know what to look for in the commodity futures markets? Take a listen to Turner’s Take podcast!
Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
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