High Natural Gas demand (for cooling) this spring and summer had drawn down stocks more than expected. The early start of winter and forecasts of a colder winter could be supportive of Natural Gas until February. Coffee has broken out higher as Brazilian producers threaten to limit supply in order increase prices (sounds like the coffee version of OPEC). Gold has consolidated as the stock market stabilizes with support coming in at $1220.
Hogs are stuck in a bearish supply scenario in the front months but a bullish demand story in the deferred months. AFS is still an issue in China but the extent of the hog/pork losses is still unknown. Cattle is looking toppy as the funds are very long and the CoF reports show plenty of supply. Corn looks fairly priced between $3.65 and $3.85. Soybeans are expensive if export demand does not pick up. Nov/Dec/Jan will be “make or break” for wheat as we find out if Russia has the high quality wheat the world needs and if the US wins export business.
While the podcast does not have specific actionable trading recommendations, we do publish them in Turner’s Take Market Alert for spec traders and Turner’s Take Ag Marketing for hedgers. Want to know what to look for in the commodity futures markets? Take a listen to Turner’s Take podcast!
Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
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