The WASDE was bearish for corn and wheat while confirming a massive carryout of soybeans. Corn yields came in at 181.3 and soybeans were 52.8. Global wheat stocks increased as the USDA increased Russian wheat production instead of lowering it.
Going forward corn will most likely be range bound between $3.40 and $3.70 in December. Wheat needs to catch a bid on the export market or the market will continue to grind lower. HRW wheat should be the most competitively priced wheat for HiPro but we still need someone to come in and buy it. For soybeans the market should be range bound between $8.00 and $8.80 until more is known about US/Chinese trade relations and the South American weather.
Once this report is digested I think we go to a range bound market for corn for the rest of 2018. Only a Chinese trade deal or widespread planting delays in South America could cause a major rally for soybeans. Wheat could rally but now that US wheat is competitive on the global market we need to make export sales. If we don’t see any pick up in exports then we grind lower.
While the podcast does not have specific actionable trading recommendations, we do publish them in Turner’s Take Market Alert for spec traders and Turner’s Take Ag Marketing for hedgers. Want to know what to look for in the commodity futures markets? Take a listen to Turner’s Take podcast!
Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
Turner’s Take Ag Marketing http://www.turnerstakeag.com
Turner’s Take Spec http://www.turnerstake.com
Try Turner’s Take Ag Marketing – for 30 Days
This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.
This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.
Trade recommendations and profit/loss calculations may not include commissions and fees. Please consult your broker for details based on your trading arrangement and commission setup.
You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the "risk disclosure" webpage accessed at www.DanielsTrading.com at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any third-party trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.