- Brazil soybeans are now price nearly 25% higher than US soybeans on the cash market. This means the market has now priced in the tariffs on US soybeans. As a result the funds are starting to cover shorts. Beans were up 10 to 15 cents today while corn held steady and wheat was down 5. Funds have been short soybeans and long corn and/or wheat. The unwinding of those positions explains the gains in soybeans and why corn and wheat had trouble rallying.
We don’t see the grain markets turning bullish but we do see a bottom forming. Prices are below fair value and sooner or later the US will have trade deals with China and NAFTA. Yield estimates are starting to come down due to GD/EX rating supplies. Corn and Wheat will be in better demand this fall as the US becomes a major destination for exports. We expect to see grains and oilseeds under pressure between now and the end of August due to farmers needing to clear out old crop, but this is no time to turn bearish. We are much more interested in finding bullish positions for the fall and early winter.
While the podcast does not have specific actionable trading recommendations, we do publish them in Turner’s Take Market Alert for spec traders and Turner’s Take Ag Marketing for hedgers. Want to know what to look for in the commodity futures markets? Take a listen to Turner’s Take podcast!
Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
Turner’s Take Ag Marketing http://www.turnerstakeag.com
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Turner’s Take Ag Marketing | 2018 Corn Outlook - Turner’s Take Ag Marketing sees 2018 corn prices having a possible range from $3.15 to $4.50 given various acreage, supply and demand scenarios, with an end of season target price of $3.70. Find out more about how we determine the range of prices, our suggested marketing strategies, and our 2018 target prices.
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