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Home / Futures Blog / Turner’s Take Newsletter and Podcast | June 2018 WASDE Bullish Corn

Turner’s Take Newsletter and Podcast | June 2018 WASDE Bullish Corn

June 12, 2018 by Craig Turner

NEW PODCAST | We just released a new Turner’s Take podcast.  We go over our thoughts on the June 2018 WASDE and why we think corn has the best changes of a big rally IF we have a significant weather rally.  Please click here to listen to the latest Turner’s Take podcast.

JUNE WASDE | The USDA did not change yields or acres for corn and soybeans. That was expected as the USDA does not make those changes in the June report even though the market has been lower due to the great GD/EX ratings for the past couple of weeks.

The USDA did lower Brazil production 2mm mt and Russia down 4mm mt.  World stocks are lower while US demand in increasing.  Many of us feel the USDA could be 200mm to 300mm too low on export demand!  The only problem is the USDA has not updated yield yet.  With GD/EX ratings in the high 70s one has to assume the projected yields will be higher than the 174 trend line.  Some think it could be 180.  We are way to early in the game right now for that but I could see the USDA going to 177 the next time they update yields.

Keep in mind at a 180 yield and 88mm acres planted, we are most likely under 2.0 billion for new crop carryout.  A combination of lower acres, lower global production, and increased exports will be supportive for corn.  When you think that corn last year was in the $3.30s and $3.40s in the front month when the crop had 2.4 billion bushel ending stock projection, you have to think corn will not break last year’s lows.  For me that means we have a possible low of $3.50 in Dec Corn but we could also go to $4.30 and test the highs if we have a weather market.

The big takeaway is corn has the best potential to the upside this summer IF we have a significant weather scare.

June 2018 WASDE

CORN SUPPLY & DEMAND TABLE

SOYBEANS SUPPLY & DEMAND TABLE

WHEAT SUPPLY & DEMAND TABLE

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Risk Disclosure

This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.

This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.

You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the "risk disclosure" webpage accessed at www.DanielsTrading.com at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.

Filed Under: Turner's Take

About Craig Turner

Craig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.

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Risk Disclosure

This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.

This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.

You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the "risk disclosure" webpage accessed at www.DanielsTrading.com at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.

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