The USDA released their May WASDE yesterday and the results were mixed. On the surface the report was bullish for new crop corn but the market was looking for a bullish number. New crop corn ending stocks were 1.682 billion bushels, which is 500mm bushels lower than the old crop ending stock estimates. The May WASDE showed that the US will pick up corn exports due to losses in Arg and Brazil but in the back end of the marketing year the USDA thinks the US will have stiff competition from the Ukraine and Russia.
Soybeans were bullish at first glance with a new crop carryout of 415. The problem is the market things new crop acres will expand and the export number is too high. We have about 4mm mt of soybeans that are booked but not shipped to China due to the tariffs. We think these sales get cancelled and Brazil gets the business. That is 100mm+ bushels that comes back to the US. Old crop carryout could be closer to 600mm and new crop could be 500mm with a trend line yield and 90mm acres.
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Turner’s Take Ag Marketing | 2018 Corn Outlook - Turner’s Take Ag Marketing sees 2018 corn prices having a possible range from $3.15 to $4.50 given various acreage, supply and demand scenarios, with an end of season target price of $3.70. Find out more about how we determine the range of prices, our suggested marketing strategies, and our 2018 target prices.
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