Today was a Taylor Trading Sell Short day for the gold futures. There was an opportunity to sell overnight; a morning rally and selloff around President Trump’s US Dollar comments gave a second chance to sell.
For Swing Trader’s Insight (STI) I had the gold futures labeled as a Sell Short day by the Taylor Trading Technique. (Get a copy of the STI user’s guide below to learn the basics of the Taylor method.) The Sell Short day was reinforced by the high level of ROC (bottom panel of daily chart) which also gave a sell signal. In the bigger picture, the market was approaching the 2017 high of 1365.80, setting up a potential test of a major pivot point.
Initial Rally in Gold Futures
The setup for a Taylor Sell Short day is a failed rally above the previous session high – we look for that initial rally to be a short term peak and a subsequent trend change down. For the February gold futures our reference price was the Thursday high of 1361.60.
If you traded overnight you got a Sell Short day signal as gold rallied to 1365.40 (just shy of the 2017 high) before selling off. I trade during US hours so when I got to the desk I was watching gold move lower, reaching a session low of 1353.10. This was a great trade for those that took the overnight sale but it left me with nothing to do, or so I thought.
Gold resumed its rally as President Trump was set to interview with CNBC at the Davos forum. Maybe people thought President Trump would echo Treasury Secretary Mnuchin’s recent comments that seemed to be in favor of a weak US Dollar. Trump has previously made comments that a strong USD is bad for US export business so it wouldn’t be surprising for Trump to reiterate Mnuchin’s comments or simply let them stand.
Instead, President Trump said Mnuchin’s comments were taken out of context. Moreover he said: “The dollar is going to get stronger and stronger, and ultimately I want to see a strong dollar. Our country is becoming so economically strong again and strong in other ways, too.” These comments caused reversals in the USD and Dollar sensitive commodities.
Selloff Trigger: Gold Declines
For gold, the Noon push above the Thursday high was our “heads up” to look for a subsequent selloff below the Thursday high; this decline would be the trigger for a Taylor Trading Sell Short Day sale.
We got the short sale trigger around 12:30 PM. I use stop orders for these entries; this allows me to have my trade plan ready ahead of time so I don’t have to try to enter orders in volatile markets. Not only does this tend to make for better entries, it allows me to trade logically rather than emotionally.
The initial stop loss for this trade could go above the 12:20 high of 1364.00, then trailed lower as the market sold off over the afternoon. The 16 January high of 1346.00 was a support / pivot point for the selloff; this was broken in the afternoon but it looks like it might hold on the close.
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