• Skip to primary navigation
  • Skip to main content
  • Skip to primary sidebar
  • Skip to footer

Daniels Trading

Independent. Objective. Reliable.

Top Navigation

  • Open a Futures Account
  • Sign Up
  • Log in
  • 1.800.800.3840

Primary Navigation Menu

  • About
    • Who We Are
    • Services
    • Careers
    • Risk Disclosure
    • COVID-19
  • Trade
    • Broker-Assisted
    • Self-Directed / Online
    • Request Pricing
  • Hedge
    • DanielsAg Mobile App
    • Ag Marketing Plan
    • WASDE Analysis
    • Grain Resources
    • Livestock / Dairy Resources
    • Hedging Videos
    • Request Pricing
  • Invest
    • Automated Strategies
    • Managed Futures
    • Request Pricing
  • Advisories
    • GENERAL / FUNDAMENTAL
      • DT Newsletter
      • Insider Market Advisory
      • Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast
    • TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
      • The Cullen Outlook
      • Data Feed Trade
      • Jarboe Trading Journal
      • Trade Spotlight
    • AG MARKETING
      • Cattleman’s Advisory
      • The Swine Times
      • Technical Ag Knowledge
      • This Week in Grain
      • Turner’s Take Ag Marketing
    • THIRD-PARTY RESOURCES
      • CFRN
      • Moore Research Center, Inc. (MRCI)
      • OptionWorks®
      • TASMarketProfile.com
  • Education
    • CME Group Resource Center
    • Small Exchange Resources
    • Guides
    • Frequently Asked Questions
    • Order Entry Handbook
    • Webinars
  • Blog
    • Futures 101
    • Ag Marketing
    • Tips & Strategies
    • Trading Advisories
  • Resources
    • Trading Software
    • Quotes and Charts
    • Futures Calendars
    • Contract Specifications
    • Margin Requirements
    • Futures Calculator
  • Accounts
    • GAIN Capital Futures
    • StoneX
  • Contact
Home / Futures Blog / The Swine Times – January 22-26, 2018 – Hog Trading Wrap Up

The Swine Times – January 22-26, 2018 – Hog Trading Wrap Up

January 22, 2018 by John Payne

Swine Times Logo

CURRENT POSITIONS:

  • LONG 1 UNIT OF APRIL HOGS
  • SHORT 1 UNIT OF AUGUST HOGS @ -8.75

Hog Market Prices – January 15-19

Hog Price Chart

Looking into next week:

  •  As you can tell by the primal cut quotes above, there has been very little activity on the pork product market.
  • Swine Times mentioned last week that the price spread between loins and butts would narrow. We saw that happen this week as the price spread came from $28.21 on Monday, 1/15/18 to $20.83 this Friday, 1/19/18.   Our opinion on the reason the loin/butt price spread  had gotten so wide is that the Winter Olympics hosted by South Korea are just the corner. The Korean importers loaded up their freezers with Boston butts in preparation for the Winter Olympic games.
  • Hams had a modest gain this past week, as sellers have been content to try to keep the prices under control in order for hams to continue to move through their usual channels.
  • The packers have decreased their weekly slaughter schedules in order to prevent any substantial decrease in their margins.  We look for this to continue.
  • The bellies are once again at the forefront, gaining $2.06 in price.  We look for bellies to top out up around $1.50, but we could be wrong.
  • We will be watching the government shutdown news as well, if the shutdown lasts past this week the cold storage report would probably be in jeopardy next week. The event has been slightly dollar negative so far.

How we trade this:

We have revised our prices to buy February and April hogs as follows:

  • The February and April hogs are still a buy on sharp breaks as indicated by the pig crop report. By a sharp break, we mean 150-200 points below Friday’s settlement price. Be cautious. (See the final bullet point at the bottom of this page.)
  • We recommend buying February hogs under $72.00
  • Watch for the opportunity to buy April hogs under $74.00, if they get there.
  • The month of February is particularly slow for pork and we expect this year to be no different.  Swine Times is advising our readers to be patient and watch for opportunities to buy April hogs.
  • We are also looking at buying April selling August hogs at $9.00 to the August or better.
  • The weather will continue to be a factor.  Keep checking weather sources for storms and drastic changes in temperatures.
  • We are still cautioning our readers to pay attention to news stories on NAFTA. Any talk of changes in the trade agreement can cause short term, severe price drops or spikes in live hog futures.

Have a great week. Be sure to sign up for trade alerts so you can stay in step with our efforts.


Hedgers Guide to Covered Calls

Livestock Futures and Options Hedging Guide Cover

Livestock Futures and Options to Hedging

If you are interested in the livestock commodity futures industry but feel you could use more information to get started, then download this self-study guide to learn the fundamentals of futures trading and hedging. You will receive an incredibly detailed, step-by-step explanation of the life of a livestock futures contract, as well as what tools you will need to possibly realize your goals.

Register Now

Risk Disclosure

This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.

This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.

Trade recommendations and profit/loss calculations may not include commissions and fees. Please consult your broker for details based on your trading arrangement and commission setup.

You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the "risk disclosure" webpage accessed at www.DanielsTrading.com at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any third-party trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.

Filed Under: The Swine Times

About John Payne

John Payne is a Senior Futures & Options Broker and Market Strategist with Daniels Trading. He is the publisher of the grain focused newsletter called This Week in Grain, along with being a co-editor of Andy Daniels’s newsletter, Grain Analyst. He has been working as a series 3 registered broker since 2008.

John graduated from the University of Iowa with a degree in economics. After school, John embarked on a 4 year career with the United States Navy. It was during two tours in Iraq and the Persian Gulf where John realized how important commodities are to the survival of society as we know it. It was this understanding that brought about John’s curiosity in commodities. Upon his honorable discharge in 2007, John’s intense interest in the world of commodities inspired him to move to Chicago and pursue his passion in a career in the futures arena.

After a three year position with a managed futures firm specialized in livestock trading, he was given the opportunity to join the team at Daniels Trading. Being in the business and seeing how other IB’s operated, it was the integrity and straightforward approach of the Daniels management team and brokers that attracted him to make the move. Since joining Daniels, John has broadened his fundamental and technical analysis of the markets even further. John has been writing his newsletter This Week in Grain under the Daniels banner since 2011.

Working in high pressure industries like the military and capital markets, John has learned the value of preparation in times of stress. He believes that instilling within his clients the value of a good plan and a cool head for dealing with the day to day swings of commodity markets. He treats every client as a teammate, understanding that his job is to help clients achieve their goals, whatever they may be.

John is a proud supporter of the Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America, the Veterans of Foreign Wars and the National Corn Growers Association. When he is not working, he enjoys athletics of all kinds and spending time with his wife and their two kids.

John’s commentary is featured in the following publications:

* All Ag Radio – Sirius Channel 80
* AM 880 KRVN – Lexington, Nebraska
* RFD TV
* Wall Street Journal
* Barron’s
* China News Daily (English version)

Primary Sidebar

Get Blog Updates

Subscribe to our blog and receive a daily email with information on market insights, trading tips & strategies.

Trustpilot

Footer

Site Navigation

  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • About Us
  • Customer Reviews
  • Contact Us
  • Futures Blog
  • Open a Futures Trading Account
  • Media Resources
  • Fund Your Account
  • Legal Notices

Contact Us

Daniels Trading
100 South Wacker Drive, Suite 1225
Chicago, IL 60606
+1.312.706.7600 Local / Int'l
+1.800.800.3840 Toll-Free
+1.312.706.7605 Fax

Connect with Us

Trustpilot

Copyright © 2021 · Daniels Trading. All rights reserved.

Risk Disclosure

This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.

This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.

Trade recommendations and profit/loss calculations may not include commissions and fees. Please consult your broker for details based on your trading arrangement and commission setup.

You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the "risk disclosure" webpage accessed at www.DanielsTrading.com at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any third-party trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.

  • Risk Disclosure
  • Privacy Policy
  • California Residents Privacy Notice
  • Terms of Use
  • Back to top