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Home / Futures Blog / Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter | Hogs, Crude, and Grain Marketing

Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter | Hogs, Crude, and Grain Marketing

October 18, 2017 by Craig Turner

NEW PODCAST | I recorded a podcast last night.  I dive into our recent ideas in Lean Hogs and Crude Oil.  All spec trade ideas come from the Turner’s Take Market Alert newsletter.  For farmers, hedgers, and grain traders, the second half of the podcast talks about how we are begging to position ourselves for 2018-2019 marketing and hedging.  We have a plan to use short option premium on old crop to pay for new crop hedges in corn.  We see corn a range bound market and we should be able to use premium collected to pay for most (if not all) of our 2018-2019 hedges.  All hedging and marketing ideas are publish in the Turner’s Take Ag Marketing newsletter.

Click here for the new TURNER’S TAKE PODCAST

MACRO MARKETS | US Stock Indices have been in the news as we make new highs while the latest round of earnings reports have been mixed.  The stock market has been a bull market for over eight years (8 years!) and at some point we are going to have a downturn.  Two big developments have the potential to send stocks lower.  The first is if tax reform gets done.  A material part of the rally since Trump became President is based on tax reform.  The second part is how the Fed goes about unwinding their massive balance sheet.  For now the market seems to want to go higher but if tax reform fails, earnings start to disappoint, and the Fed does not get the unwind correct, we could see a significant correction in the stock market.

Emini S&P Chart

 

GRAINS | We continue to see corn as a range bound market for the foreseeable futures.  With large US and global stocks and moderate demand, it will be difficult for corn to break out.  We continue to like using strategies that are beneficial for range bound markets.  We have the same exact thoughts for winter wheat too.

The USDA report was bullish for soybeans last week. The reduction in yield should be supportive of soybeans and we would expect buying to come in on breaks to $9.50 to $9.60 until more is known about the SAM crop. If there are issue in South America we are buyers of soybeans.  Beans have the best bullish potential of the three major ag crops this year.

Dec Corn

Nov Soybeans

 

LEAN HOGS | Hogs continue to trade in range and while the cash price has been strong recently, we are also expecting a large amount of supply coming to market.  This should lead to a range bound market for the rest of the year.  Hogs/pork are in highest demand during the summer months during bbq season.  In the last fall and winter pork demand tends to decline while supplies build.

National Hog Farmer | Pork Demand Being Challenged By Record Large Production

If you look at the chart below, you can see the reversal yesterday. We opened up higher the prior day’s close and then we closed lower than the prior day’s open.  That is typically considered a bearish reversal.

Dec Hogs

CRUDE OIL | I know I sound like a broken record but I still like selling crude when we get into the $50s.  In the past week we have had reports of OPEC extending production cuts and potential conflict in northern Iraq between the Iraqi government and the Kurds.  Before the shale revolution (when crude traded between $80 and $110) the market could have rallied $10 or more.  Now we are barely up $3.  For me that just reinforces my belief that higher prices bring out production in the US shale industry and other nations that are not part of OPEC.  Clients/Subscribers to Turner’s Take Market Alert should refer to yesterday’s email about how we are going to go about this.

Dec Crude

 

Turner’s Take Market Alert – Trial

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Turner’s Take Market Alert – Trial - Turner’s Take Market Alert includes Daily Updates and an Intraday Trade Recommendation service for Daniels Trading clients.

Try Turner’s Take Market Alert – for 30 Days Learn More View a Sample

Risk Disclosure

This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.

This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.

Trade recommendations and profit/loss calculations may not include commissions and fees. Please consult your broker for details based on your trading arrangement and commission setup.

You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the "risk disclosure" webpage accessed at www.DanielsTrading.com at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any third-party trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.

Filed Under: Turner's Take

About Craig Turner

Craig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.

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Risk Disclosure

This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.

This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.

Trade recommendations and profit/loss calculations may not include commissions and fees. Please consult your broker for details based on your trading arrangement and commission setup.

You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the "risk disclosure" webpage accessed at www.DanielsTrading.com at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any third-party trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.

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