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Home / Futures Blog / Turner’s Take Weekly and Podcast | 100th Episode!!!

Turner’s Take Weekly and Podcast | 100th Episode!!!

September 19, 2017 by Craig Turner

New Podcast | This is our 100th episode of Turner’s Take podcast.  We now have listeners in 108 nations and across all 50 US states. Thank you to all who have helped make this podcast a success!  Click here to listen to Turner’s Take Podcast

GRAINS | It has been a slow couple of weeks. Not a whole lot to write or talk about.  As we head into harvest I think corn remains range bound and I continue to like short straddles.  Wheat is probably going to find a bottom soon.  There are production issues in Argentina (too wet) and Australia (drought) and that is going to lead to increased demand for US wheat.  We will not have shortage of wheat but we will see increased demand.  The wildcard of the bunch is soybeans.  All eyes will be on the field reports for harvest.  Currently harvest reports are better than expected but it is still early in the game.  A better than expected harvest could send SX to $9.00.  I can’t get too bearish on beans at $9.00 because SAM growing season is getting started and La Nina is could be a factor this year.

Below is monthly chart of KC Wheat going back five years.  We are starting to see stocks come down on the USDA balance sheet, acres get smaller in the US every year, and I think we are going to see better exports due to the issues going on in Argentina and Australia.  We are going to keep an eye on Wheat and will be having recommendations in Turner’s Take Market Alerts

 

ENERGY | Natural Gas stocks are starting to tighten and we could have tighter stocks this winter.  A cold winter and tighter stocks could lead to a really. We will be keeping an eye on Dec NG and looking for ways to get long.  Below is chart of Crude Oil.  It is a weekly chart that goes back to 2012.  The top part of the chart shows the old range crude traded in when OPEC dictated prices.  The bottom part of the chart shows the “new normal” after the Shale Revolution.  Above $50 a lot of the shale companies are profitable and they will produce enough supply to meet demand.  When crude gets to $40 a lot of the shale companies are not profitable.  The term structure for crude is bearish right now and does not present much opportunity with bear spreads.  I like selling futures, selling call spreads, and buying put spreads.  Stay tuned!

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Risk Disclosure

This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.

This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.

You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the "risk disclosure" webpage accessed at www.DanielsTrading.com at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.

Filed Under: Turner's Take

About Craig Turner

Craig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.

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Risk Disclosure

This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.

This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.

You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the "risk disclosure" webpage accessed at www.DanielsTrading.com at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.

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