Turner’s Take podcast is out for July 24th. We go over our in-depth thoughts on the Crop Conditions report and where we thing corn, soybeans and wheat may trade between now and the August WASDE. Click here to listen to Turner’s Take podcast
SOYBEANS | Soybeans Good to Excellent (G/E) crop progress was down 4% to 57% today. IL alone had a 8% drop week over week. If you don’t count the 2012 drought, this is the lowest G/E ratings this far into the growing season since 2006. I think soybeans will be supported at $9.85 but will have a hard time trading above $10.45 without the USDA bringing yields down in the August WASDE.
I like buying the breaks for speculators. Farmers should wait to make their next round of sales and see if we can test the highs from a few weeks ago around $10.45. If the USDA does bring down yield to 46 or 47 and the G/E ratings continue to decline, there is a chance to see $11.00 in during August.
Keep an eye on the topsoil/sub-soil moisture ratings! Click here and check out pages 13 and 14 on the crop progress report.
CORN | Many in the trade think corn is closer to a 165 yield then a 170 yield, which is why Dec corn can trade around $4.00 even though the last WASDE is projecting a 2.3 billion bushel new crop carryout. G/E ratings for corn is now 62%. Last year G/E was 76% during the same time. That is a 20% decrease year over year. Between now and the Aug 10 WASDE I like buying breaks and looking to sell at $4.10 or higher. I think it will be very difficult to break $4.20 and make new highs until the USDA confirms lower yields are expected and not the 170 they published in July.
Weather is now critical for corn. The western corn belt is forecast to have normal to higher temperatures over the next two weeks with little precipitation. Continued hot and dry weather for the next 10 to 14 days will continue to negatively impact crops and the trade could start expecting yields closer to 160. If a 160 yield if realized we see corn trading as high as $4.40.
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