Turner’s Take podcast is out for July 24th. We go over our in-depth thoughts on the Crop Conditions report and where we thing corn, soybeans and wheat may trade between now and the August WASDE. Click here to listen to Turner’s Take podcast
SOYBEANS | Soybeans Good to Excellent (G/E) crop progress was down 4% to 57% today. IL alone had a 8% drop week over week. If you don’t count the 2012 drought, this is the lowest G/E ratings this far into the growing season since 2006. I think soybeans will be supported at $9.85 but will have a hard time trading above $10.45 without the USDA bringing yields down in the August WASDE.
I like buying the breaks for speculators. Farmers should wait to make their next round of sales and see if we can test the highs from a few weeks ago around $10.45. If the USDA does bring down yield to 46 or 47 and the G/E ratings continue to decline, there is a chance to see $11.00 in during August.
Keep an eye on the topsoil/sub-soil moisture ratings! Click here and check out pages 13 and 14 on the crop progress report.
CORN | Many in the trade think corn is closer to a 165 yield then a 170 yield, which is why Dec corn can trade around $4.00 even though the last WASDE is projecting a 2.3 billion bushel new crop carryout. G/E ratings for corn is now 62%. Last year G/E was 76% during the same time. That is a 20% decrease year over year. Between now and the Aug 10 WASDE I like buying breaks and looking to sell at $4.10 or higher. I think it will be very difficult to break $4.20 and make new highs until the USDA confirms lower yields are expected and not the 170 they published in July.
Weather is now critical for corn. The western corn belt is forecast to have normal to higher temperatures over the next two weeks with little precipitation. Continued hot and dry weather for the next 10 to 14 days will continue to negatively impact crops and the trade could start expecting yields closer to 160. If a 160 yield if realized we see corn trading as high as $4.40.
Try Turner’s Take Market Alert – for 30 Days
Turner’s Take Market Alert – Trial - Turner’s Take Market Alert includes Daily Updates and an Intraday Trade Recommendation service for Daniels Trading clients.
Turner’s Take Market Alert – includes an email newsletter subscription.
Turner’s Take Market Alert – trial lasts 30 days.
This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.
This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.
You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the "risk disclosure" webpage accessed at www.DanielsTrading.com at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.