The Crop Progress report on Monday, July 10th was bullish for corn, spring wheat, and soybeans. G/E rating were down for all three and P/VP were higher. The July weather forecast suggests continued hot and dry conditions to much of the northern plains and western corn belt. Until these areas see relief due to moderate temperatures and increases precipitation, the markets will most likely chart higher.
The WASDE on Wednesday, July 12th does represent a potential bump in the road for the bulls. The USDA is historically slow to change yields. The market may be trading a 165 or lower yield in corn right now but the USDA is more likely to bring yields down to 168. Same goes for soybeans. Many in the trade think soybeans are about a 46 to 47 yield right now but the USDA may not even move it from the trend line yield of 48 until the August WASDE. In our opinion at Turner’s Take we think any sell offs due to a July 12th WASDE bearish surprise for corn, soybeans and spring wheat is a buying opportunity as long as the weather remains hot and dry.
To hear my in-depth thoughts on our positions in corn, soybeans, and spring wheat please click here to listen to Turner’s Take Podcast or to read them when published please click here to sign up for Turner’s Take Market Alert
Below are the charts that go along with Turner’s Take podcast. We remain bullish on corn, soybeans, and spring wheat. For detailed trades and positions please see Turner’s Take Market Alert.
December Corn
Nov 17 Soybeans
Nov 17 vs Nov 18 Soybeans
Dec 17 Spring Wheat
March 18 vs May 18 Spring Wheat
Sept 17 KC vs Sept 17 Chicago Wheat
Try Turner’s Take Market Alert – for 30 Days
Turner’s Take Market Alert – Trial - Turner’s Take Market Alert includes Daily Updates and an Intraday Trade Recommendation service for Daniels Trading clients.
Risk Disclosure
THIS MATERIAL IS CONVEYED AS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING INTO A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION.
THIS MATERIAL HAS BEEN PREPARED BY A DANIELS TRADING BROKER WHO PROVIDES RESEARCH MARKET COMMENTARY AND TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS AS PART OF HIS OR HER SOLICITATION FOR ACCOUNTS AND SOLICITATION FOR TRADES; HOWEVER, DANIELS TRADING DOES NOT MAINTAIN A RESEARCH DEPARTMENT AS DEFINED IN CFTC RULE 1.71. DANIELS TRADING, ITS PRINCIPALS, BROKERS AND EMPLOYEES MAY TRADE IN DERIVATIVES FOR THEIR OWN ACCOUNTS OR FOR THE ACCOUNTS OF OTHERS. DUE TO VARIOUS FACTORS (SUCH AS RISK TOLERANCE, MARGIN REQUIREMENTS, TRADING OBJECTIVES, SHORT TERM VS. LONG TERM STRATEGIES, TECHNICAL VS. FUNDAMENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS, AND OTHER FACTORS) SUCH TRADING MAY RESULT IN THE INITIATION OR LIQUIDATION OF POSITIONS THAT ARE DIFFERENT FROM OR CONTRARY TO THE OPINIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS CONTAINED THEREIN.
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES CONTRACTS OR COMMODITY OPTIONS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL, AND THEREFORE INVESTORS SHOULD UNDERSTAND THE RISKS INVOLVED IN TAKING LEVERAGED POSITIONS AND MUST ASSUME RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH SUCH INVESTMENTS AND FOR THEIR RESULTS.
TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS AND PROFIT/LOSS CALCULATIONS MAY NOT INCLUDE COMMISSIONS AND FEES. PLEASE CONSULT YOUR BROKER FOR DETAILS BASED ON YOUR TRADING ARRANGEMENT AND COMMISSION SETUP.
YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES. YOU SHOULD READ THE "RISK DISCLOSURE" WEBPAGE ACCESSED AT WWW.DANIELSTRADING.COM AT THE BOTTOM OF THE HOMEPAGE. DANIELS TRADING IS NOT AFFILIATED WITH NOR DOES IT ENDORSE ANY TRADING SYSTEM, NEWSLETTER OR OTHER SIMILAR SERVICE. DANIELS TRADING DOES NOT GUARANTEE OR VERIFY ANY PERFORMANCE CLAIMS MADE BY SUCH SYSTEMS OR SERVICE.
GLOBAL ASSET ADVISORS, LLC (“GAA”) (DBA: DANIELS TRADING, TOP THIRD AG MARKETING AND FUTURES ONLINE) IS AN INTRODUCING BROKER TO GAIN CAPITAL GROUP, LLC (GCG) A FUTURES COMMISSION MERCHANT AND RETAIL FOREIGN EXCHANGE DEALER. GAA AND GCG ARE WHOLLY OWNED SUBSIDIARIES OF STONEX GROUP INC. (NASDAQ:SNEX) THE ULTIMATE PARENT COMPANY.
